Sweden’s Future Electrical Grid A project report IVA Electricity Crossroads project THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES (IVA) is an independent academy whose mission is to promote the engineering and economic sciences and the advancement of business and industry. In cooperation with the business community and academia, IVA initiates and proposes measures to improve Sweden’s industrial expertise and competitiveness. For more information about IVA and the Academy’s projects, see the website www.iva.se. Published by: The Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA), 2017 Box 5073, SE-102 42 Stockholm, Sweden Tel. +46 (0)8 791 29 00 IVA REPORTS: IVA publishes various types of reports within the framework of its activities. All reports are fact-checked by experts and then approved for publication by IVA’s President. PROJECT REPORTS (IVA-M): A project report summarises a significant portion of a project. A project report can be a report generated during the course of a project or a final report produced at the end. A final report can be based on several project reports. Project reports contain fact-based analysis, observations and a discussion of consequences. Final reports contain clear conclusions and prioritised policy recommendations. Project reports are often the result of the work of a work group and contain limited conclusions and policy recommendations. The project Steering Committee approves all project reports for publication and they are fact-checked by IVA to guarantee their factual accuracy and quality. IVA-M 477 ISSN: 1102-8254 ISBN: 978-91-7082-945-1 Authors: Anna Nordling, ÅF Project Manager: Jan Nordling, IVA Editor: Camilla Koebe, IVA Layout: Anna Lindberg & Pelle Isaksson, IVA This report is available to download as a pdf file at IVA’s website www.iva.se Foreword IVA’s Electricity Crossroads project has been examining what the electricity system might look like in the years 2030 to 2050 and what options are available. The project’s Electricity Distribution and Transmission work group was tasked with describing different scenarios for the future electrical grid within the framework of the project’s time perspective. Answering the following questions has been the main focus for this project. • What will the role of the electrical grid be in the energy system of the future? • What changes need to be made and what investments are needed to create the electrical grid of the future? Results from previous project reports on electricity production and electricity use have been used to inform our analysis. This report will also be used as a source of information for the project and the continuing work of the Climate and Environment and the Public Finances and Electricity Market work groups, and for the project’s concluding synthesis work. Stockholm, February 2016 Electricity Distribution and Transmission work group: Alf Larsen, E.ON (Project Chairman) Anna Nordling, ÅF (Project Manager) Mikael Möller, IKEM Henrik Bergström, Ellevio Stefan Thorburn, ABB Tomas Kåberger, Chalmers University of Technology Asoos Rasool, Mälarenergi Magnus Olofsson, Energiforsk Karl Bergman, Vattenfall Ulla Sandborgh, Svenska kraftnät Mats Ählberg, Siemens Pär Hermeren, Teknikföretagen Anders Pettersson, Swedenergy Contents 1. Conclusions and summary ............................................................................................ 7 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 11 3. Future electricity use ....................................................................................................15 Transport sector ...........................................................................................................15 Urbanisation ............................................................................................................... 17 Future electricity Use in industry ................................................................................ 17 Prosumers and local energy systems ............................................................................ 17 User flexibility ............................................................................................................. 18 4. Future electricity production ...................................................................................... 19 Connecting new production to the electrical grid ........................................................ 20 Future electricity production alternatives and their effect on the electrical grid .......... 20 Production alternative “More solar and wind” ........................................................... 22 Production alternative “More bioenergy” ................................................................... 24 Production alternative “New nuclear power” ............................................................. 26 Production alternative “More hydropower” ................................................................ 28 Summary .................................................................................................................... 30 5. Sweden’s level of self-sufficiency .................................................................................. 31 6. Future delivery reliability requirements .......................................................................33 7. Storage .........................................................................................................................35 8. EU influence ............................................................................................................... 37 9. New investment in the electrical grid .......................................................................... 39 Investments in local and regional grids ....................................................................... 39 Investments in the national grid .................................................................................. 41 Future investments with new conditions ..................................................................... 41 The cost of the grid in relation to new production ....................................................... 42 10. Future price structures ................................................................................................ 43 11. Implementation times .................................................................................................. 47 12. Electrical grid technology ........................................................................................... 49 13. Appendix .................................................................................................................... 53 6 1. Conclusions and summary There are essentially two categories of electrical to EU guidelines with respect to grid codes, elec- grids: transmission grids and distribution grids. tricity export and import levels and Sweden’s But Sweden has divided the electrical grid into level of self-sufficiency. three categories: the national grid (transmission If there is a trend in the future whereby gen- grid), regional grids and local grids (distribution erated electricity increasingly flows from users grids). The transmission grid can be compared and into the grid, the role of the grid is expected to a motorway system where large amounts of to become more complex than it is today. The electric energy can be transferred over long dis- growth of so-called prosumers may lead to elec- tances with very small losses. The regional grid tricity users becoming self-sufficient and going can be compared to trunk roads where electric off-grid, which could affect the future role of the energy is distributed to cities and large towns. grid. Today society is already highly dependent Finally, the electricity is distributed to electric- on a reliable electricity supply and the conse- ity users via local grids (large users may also be quences of a power outage can be serious. There connected to the regional grid). may also be stricter regulation of the grid as the In Sweden today there are some 170 electrical consequences of outages become increasingly grid companies that own and operate local and serious in a society that is ever more dependent regional grids. There is strong municipal owner- on a reliable supply of electricity. ship as 129 of these are municipal companies. Changes are also taking place on the user The three largest grid companies (Vattenfall side. These changes may reduce the demand for Eldistribution, E.ON Elnät Sverige and Ellevio) power demand (devices, revolution control, user supply more than half of Sweden’s electricity flexibility) and increase power demand (electri- users with electricity. Sweden’s national grid fication of modes of transport, new or more de- is managed by the government agency and au- vices/equipment running on electricity). Energy thority Svenska kraftnät, which also has overall storage solutions may also impact grid design. responsibility for the entire Swedish electricity It may be necessary to reduce power demand system. through load control or increase it to receive the surplus from variable electricity production. All in all an increase in demand for flexible THE ROLE OF THE ELECTRICAL GRID solutions for the grid is seen. IN THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE ELECTRICAL The electrical grid has a fundamental role in GRID OF THE FUTURE Swedish society and is entirely critical in order for society to function. Since the electrical grid Electricity