Assessing the Impacts of Wind Integration in the Western Provinces by Amy Sopinka B.A., Queen’s University, 1992 M.A., McGill University, 1995 A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the Department of Geography Amy Sopinka, 2012 University of Victoria All rights reserved. This dissertation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without the permission of the author. ii Supervisory Committee Assessing the Impacts of Wind Integration in the Western Provinces by Amy Sopinka B.A., Queen’s University, 1992 M.A., McGill University, 1995 Supervisory Committee Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, (Department of Geography) Supervisor Dr. Kurt Niquidet, (Department of Geography) Departmental Member Dr. David Scoones, (Department of Economics) Outside Member iii Abstract Supervisory Committee Dr. G. Cornelis van Kooten, Department of Geography Supervisor Dr. Kurt Niquidet, Department of Geography Departmental Member Dr. David Scoones, Department of Economics Outside Member Increasing carbon dioxide levels and the fear of irreversible climate change has prompted policy makers to implement renewable portfolio standards. These renewable portfolio standards are meant to encourage the adoption of renewable energy technologies thereby reducing carbon emissions associated with fossil fuel-fired electricity generation. The ability to efficiently adopt and utilize high levels of renewable energy technology, such as wind power, depends upon the composition of the extant generation within the grid. Western Canadian electric grids are poised to integrate high levels of wind and although Alberta has sufficient and, at times, an excess supply of electricity, it does not have the inherent generator flexibility required to mirror the variability of its wind generation. British Columbia, with its large reservoir storage capacities and rapid ramping hydroelectric generation could easily provide the firming services required by Alberta; however, the two grids are connected only by a small, constrained intertie. We use a simulation model to assess the economic impacts of high wind penetrations in the Alberta grid under various balancing protocols. We find that adding iv wind capacity to the system impacts grid reliability, increasing the frequency of system imbalances and unscheduled intertie flow. In order for British Columbia to be viable firming resource, it must have sufficient generation capability to meet and exceed the province’s electricity self-sufficiency requirements. We use a linear programming model to evaluate the province’s ability to meet domestic load under various water and trade conditions. We then examine the effects of drought and wind penetration on the interconnected Alberta – British Columbia system given differing interconnection sizes. v Table of Contents Supervisory Committee ...................................................................................................... ii Abstract .............................................................................................................................. iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................. v List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ xv Dedication ........................................................................................................................ xvi Glossary .......................................................................................................................... xvii Chapter 1: The Growth in Wind Capacity ........................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Renewable Energy Standards ............................................................................ 4 1.2 Growth in Wind Capacity .................................................................................. 5 Worldwide ........................................................................................................... 5 United States ........................................................................................................ 7 Canada ................................................................................................................. 7 Western Canada ................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Research Questions .......................................................................................... 19 Research Question One ..................................................................................... 20 Research Question Two ..................................................................................... 21 Research Question Three ................................................................................... 22 1.4 Methods ........................................................................................................... 23 Simulation .......................................................................................................... 23 vi Mathematical Programming Models ................................................................ 24 1.5 Outline of the Thesis ........................................................................................ 24 Chapter 2: The Alberta and British Columbia (Weakly) Connected Grids ....................... 26 2.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 26 2.1 The Alberta Interconnected System ................................................................. 26 History of Electricity Market Deregulation in Alberta ...................................... 27 The Electric Utilities Act ................................................................................... 29 Stranded Benefits ............................................................................................... 29 Obligations and Entitlements: 1996 to 2000 ..................................................... 30 The Power Purchase Arrangements and Auction .............................................. 31 MAP I, MAP II and MAP III ............................................................................ 34 Current Market Operations ................................................................................ 36 2.2 Alberta's Markets for Energy and Ancillary Services ..................................... 37 System Marginal Price ....................................................................................... 39 Offers to Increase Supply .................................................................................. 40 Bids to Reduce Demand .................................................................................... 40 Supply Surplus ................................................................................................... 41 SMP and Pool Price ........................................................................................... 41 2.3 System Operations in a High Wind Environment ........................................... 42 System Operations with Operational Certainty and No Interconnections ......... 42 Net Imports ........................................................................................................ 43 Planned Maintenance, Forced Outages and Critical Failures ............................ 44 System Operation with Wind ............................................................................ 45 vii Dispatch Example .............................................................................................. 47 2.4 Alberta Price Dynamics ................................................................................... 48 2.5 Ancillary Market for Operating Reserves ........................................................ 52 Active Reserve Pricing ...................................................................................... 55 Standby Reserve Pricing .................................................................................... 55 Transmission Must Run ..................................................................................... 56 2.6 Wheeling .......................................................................................................... 58 2.7 British Columbia Electric Grid ........................................................................ 60 Exports ............................................................................................................... 62 Mid-Columbia Market ....................................................................................... 63 California ........................................................................................................... 65 2.8 Conclusions...................................................................................................... 68 Chapter 3: Estimating the Economic Costs of Increased Wind Penetration in Thermally Dependent Grids ...............................................................................................................