Republic of Zambia REPORT OF THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY INTO VOTING PATTERNS AND ELECTORAL VIOLENCE January 2019 Table of Contents ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................. x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................... xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... xiv PART ONE ................................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Setting up the Commission of Inquiry ........................................................................ 1 1.2 Composition of the Commission. ................................................................................ 1 1.3 Mandate of the Commission ....................................................................................... 2 1.4 Terms of Reference ..................................................................................................... 2 1.5 Secretariat .................................................................................................................... 2 1.6 Period of inquiry.......................................................................................................... 3 1.6.1 First extension ...................................................................................................... 3 1.6.2 Second extension ................................................................................................. 3 1.6.3 Third extension .................................................................................................... 3 1.6.4 Administrative extension ..................................................................................... 4 1.7 Methodology ............................................................................................................... 4 1.7.1 Data collection ..................................................................................................... 4 1.7.2 Mode of submissions ........................................................................................... 6 1.7.3 Petitioner‘s Guidelines ......................................................................................... 7 1.7.4 Special sittings ..................................................................................................... 8 1.7.5 Primary data ......................................................................................................... 8 1.7.6 Secondary data ..................................................................................................... 8 1.7.7 Data analysis ........................................................................................................ 9 1.8 Limitations .................................................................................................................. 9 1.8.1 Late setting up of Secretariat ............................................................................... 9 1.8.2 Erratic funding ..................................................................................................... 9 1.9 Arrangement of the Report ........................................................................................ 10 1.10 Historical background ............................................................................................ 11 ii 1.10.1 Pre-independence ........................................................................................... 11 1.10.2 First Republic (October 1964- December, 1972) ........................................... 12 1.10.3 The Second Republic (September, 1973 – 1990) ........................................... 15 1.10.4 Beginning of the Third Republic .................................................................... 15 1.10.5 Overview of democracy ................................................................................. 16 1.10.6 Emergence of political violence ..................................................................... 20 1.10.7 Voting pattern in 1996.................................................................................... 20 1.10.8 Voting pattern in 2001.................................................................................... 21 1.10.9 Voting pattern in 2006.................................................................................... 21 1.10.10 Voting pattern in 2008.................................................................................... 23 1.10.11 Voting pattern in 2011.................................................................................... 24 1.10.12 Voting pattern in 2015.................................................................................... 26 1.10.13 Voting pattern in 2016.................................................................................... 27 1.11 Legal framework for elections .................................................................................. 29 1.11.1 International and regional instruments ............................................................... 29 1.11.2 National legislation ............................................................................................ 30 1.12 Election stakeholders................................................................................................. 32 1.12.1 Central Government ........................................................................................... 32 1.12.2 Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) ........................................................... 32 1.12.3 Electoral Conflict Management Committees (CMCs) ....................................... 32 1.12.4 Local Authorities ............................................................................................... 33 1.12.5 Zambia Police Service ....................................................................................... 33 1.12.6 Judiciary ............................................................................................................. 33 1.12.7 Media ................................................................................................................. 34 1.12.8 Election Observers and Monitors....................................................................... 34 1.13 Election Management ................................................................................................ 35 1.13.1 Voting age and voter registration ....................................................................... 35 1.13.2 Constituencies and polling stations .................................................................... 35 1.14 Voter education ......................................................................................................... 35 1.15 Ballot paper printing.................................................................................................. 36 iii 1.16 Ballot paper counting and announcement of results ................................................. 36 PART TWO ............................................................................................................................. 37 THE FINDINGS ON VOTING PATTERNS .......................................................................... 37 2.1 Root Causes of the Voting Patterns........................................................................... 37 2.1.1 Tribalism, ethnicity and regionalism ................................................................. 37 2.1.2 Dominance of presidency by one region ........................................................... 44 2.1.3 Access to State resources ................................................................................... 46 2.1.4 Unfulfilled campaign promises .......................................................................... 49 2.1.5 Violent conduct of party cadres ......................................................................... 50 2.1.6 Vote buying ........................................................................................................ 54 2.1.7 Use of Government resources for campaigns .................................................... 59 2.1.8 Influence of traditional leadership ..................................................................... 61 2.1.9 Influence of religious organisations ................................................................... 64 2.1.10 Conduct of the Zambia Police Service ............................................................... 68 2.1.11 Management of the election process .................................................................. 74 2.1.12 Media influence ................................................................................................. 80 2.1.13 Voter apathy ....................................................................................................... 84 PART THREE ......................................................................................................................... 93 FINDINGS ON PRE- AND POST- ELECTION VIOLENCE ............................................... 93 3.1 Causes of pre- and post-election violence ................................................................. 93 3.1.1 Importation of cadres ......................................................................................... 94 3.1.2