Appendix 2: Defining Housing Market Area Geographies Defining Housing Market Area Geographies Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Strategic Housing Market Assessment November 2014 Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Strategic Housing Market Area 3 3. Sub-Authority Market Geographies 21 4. Sub-Area Profiles 36 5. Conclusion 45 November 2014 1. Introduction 1.1 Housing markets are dynamic, and it is important that up-to-date evidence is used to define them. Available guidance highlights the importance of understanding the operation and scope of housing market areas, as referenced in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and specifically the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). 1.2 The concept and use of housing market areas in strategic planning is well established. It has long been recognised that housing markets do not operate based on administrative boundaries, and the identification of spatial market boundaries is an important part of understanding the balance between supply and demand. This relates to housing preferences and affordability, and the strategic choices available for the location of new housing supply. 1.3 The NPPF establishes a requirement to address need and demand for housing at both authority and housing market area level. Within paragraph 14, following the presumption in favour of sustainable development, the NPPF states: “Local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area”1 1.4 This underlines the importance of understanding housing needs within the local authority area in question, although – importantly – the wider operation of spatial housing market area geographies is recognised in paragraph 47, where there is an emphasis on boosting significantly the supply of housing with Local Plans expected to meet: “The full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this Framework, including identifying key sites which are critical to the delivery of the housing strategy over the plan period”2 1.5 Understanding functional housing market areas is an essential prerequisite in ensuring that an objective assessment of housing need is set and interpreted within the correct context. 1.6 The purpose of this appendix is to assess the housing market area geography for the authorities of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and to understand the extent to which they operate as a housing market area, as defined in the PPG. The analysis also considers the operation of more local sub-markets within the two authorities. This will directly inform the preparation of a new Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for the Councils. 1 DCLG (2012) National Planning Policy Framework (para 14) 2 Ibid (para 47) 1 Approach to Defining Housing Market Areas 1.7 The PPG provides the first point of reference on the approach to defining a Housing Market Area (HMA). A HMA is defined within the PPG as: “A geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap”3 1.8 The PPG sets out the key sources of information to be considered in assessing the definition of a HMA: • House prices and rates of change in house prices – analysis of these leading indicators is intended to provide a market-based reflection of housing market area boundaries; • Household migration and search patterns – considering peoples movements provides an indication of housing search patterns, and the extent to which people move house within a specific geography. Importantly, the PPG states that the findings can identify areas within which a relatively high proportion of household moves – typically 70% – are contained; and • Contextual data – the guidance suggests that this could include commuting patterns, retail and school catchment areas. On commuting, the guidance suggests that this can provide information about commuting flows and the spatial structure of the labour market, which can influence household price and location. These geographies can also provide information about the areas within which people move without changing other aspects of their lives, such as work or service use. 1.9 The analysis presented within this appendix uses these principal sources of information to explore the extent to which the authorities of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme can be considered as operating as a HMA. The datasets are also used to identify, within this wider geography, the operation of smaller local sub-markets within each of the authorities. 1.10 Importantly, the PPG confirms that no single source of information on needs will be comprehensive in identifying the appropriate assessment area. In constructing market geographies, plan makers will need to consider the usefulness of each source of information and approach for the specific area being examined. The approach for defining the most appropriate HMA for planning purposes will therefore include an element of reasoned judgement. 3 http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/housing-and-economic-development-needs- assessments/scope-of-assessments/#paragraph_010 2 2. Strategic Housing Market Area 2.1 The PPG highlights the importance of considering the need for housing across housing market areas. This section assesses the housing market area geography for Stoke-on- Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, through an analysis of the key indicators introduced in the previous chapter. Other research to define housing market areas – based on neighbouring authorities’ evidence and previous national and regional studies – is also summarised later in this section. Migration 2.2 While the previous definitions introduced above represent a useful starting point in considering the extent of housing market areas, it is also important to analyse spatial data in line with the PPG, particularly where new data has been published. 2.3 Migration data from the 2011 Census was released in July 2014, and provides the most reliable and up-to-date picture of movements across the country. However, at the time of writing, only local authority level data has been released, and it is not possible to determine movements between different areas of authorities. 2.4 The PPG recognises that migration flows and housing search patterns can help to identify relationships around housing preferences, and can highlight the extent to which people move house within an area. 2.5 The concept of containment of moves is therefore central to the definition of housing market areas. The Census 2011 migration data allows an assessment of the proportion of moves that are contained within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. Calculating the proportion of people moving from an authority shows the likelihood of moving households to remain within the same authority, while a similar calculation can show the propensity of moving households to remain within a wider HMA. This is summarised in the following table, based on 2011 Census data. Figure 2.1: Containment of Moves 2011 Origin Containment within authority Containment within Stoke-on- Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme Stoke-on-Trent 67.4% 76.1% Newcastle-under-Lyme 55.6% 72.2% Stoke-on-Trent and – 74.9% Newcastle-under-Lyme Source: Census 2011 2.6 As shown, only around one in four people who move from an address in Stoke-on-Trent or Newcastle-under-Lyme moved to another address outside the two authorities, 3 suggesting a relative containment of moves. Notably, this surpasses the 70% threshold highlighted in the PPG. 2.7 The PPG recognises that the 70% threshold includes most people who move relatively short distances, due to connections with families, friends, jobs and schools. Long distance moves – which may be due to a change in lifestyle or retirement – do not fall within this threshold4. 2.8 It is also important to recognise that neither authority surpasses this threshold in isolation, indicating that based on this indicator neither can be considered as an independent housing market without including another local authority. It is noted, however, that Stoke-on-Trent comes close to achieving a level of containment close to 70%, which, if longer distance moves were excluded would suggest it operates as a separate HMA. 2.9 Importantly, however, based on all moves Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme together do show a level of containment of moves which exceeds 70% and therefore suggests that they can be considered as operating as a HMA. 2.10 A similar calculation can show the proportion of people who moved from an address in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme during the year before the Census that moved from another area within the same authority or wider housing market area. Figure 2.2: Origin of Migrants 2011 Origin Moved from within authority Moved from within Stoke-on- Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme Stoke-on-Trent 69.2% 77.4% Newcastle-under-Lyme 52.5% 69.7% Stoke-on-Trent and – 74.8% Newcastle-under-Lyme Source: Census 2011 2.11 Again, this shows a relatively high level of containment, indicating that around 75% of people who moved to an address in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme moved from one of the two authorities. While Stoke-on-Trent in isolation is relatively contained in this regard – with a high proportion of movers originating from Stoke-on-Trent – around half of people who moved to an address in Newcastle-under-Lyme moved from another authority, with a high proportion – 17.2% – moving from Stoke-on-Trent. 2.12 While there is evidently a level of containment within this geography, it is beneficial to widen the assessment to consider authorities with which Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme share a strong relationship. This allows an understanding of the strength and direction of migration flows between authorities.