Fall 08 Ethnicity, Corruption and Voting Behavior in Afghanistan David Esmati Abstract. Throughout Afghanistan’s tumultuous decades of war, the constant tug of power among the various ethnicities has made the country one of the most misunderstood places in the world. In a country of roughly 30 million people, Afghans have fought many foreign powers and civil wars trying to establish a representative government that is legitimate and effective. As the international community begins to withdraw their troops by the end of 2014, the stalemate war between the Taliban and the Afghan National Army has once again forced the Afghan government to provide a leader who can form a coalition government embodying the various ethnicities present in the state. Ethnic conflict is still a key variable in understanding Afghanistan’s political landscape. This paper addresses whether the Afghan people actually vote on the basis of merit and qualifications of the individual candidates, or whether they simply favor one candidate over another because they share the same ethnic background. The study assesses Afghanistan’s 2009 elections to highlight variables other than ethnicity which may affect voting behavior. The study concludes that Afghan people do vote along ethnic lines. It also indicates that during the 2009 election, Hamid Karzai had a larger payoff from corruption than did Dr. Abdullah. New York University- International Relations Esmati Introduction In the last decade, Afghanistan has experienced tremendous changes both politically and economically. Since the fall of the Taliban, the Afghan people have had the chance to work alongside the international community in building the country’s infrastructure, state and government. Afghanistan had its first democratically held election in 2009, after more than a decade of civil war. Previous leaders were either killed or forced out of power and exiled.1 Nonetheless, the election of 2009 was the first time that Afghanis went out to voting booths and elected their leader, sparking debate in the country regarding ethnicity, cooperation and the willingness of people to choose a leader who might not be from their ethnic background. For this reason, the issue of ethnic conflict and coexistence will play a major role in the de-escalation of violence and efforts toward further development. Over the course of Afghanistan’s history, the majority of internal conflicts have resulted from ethnic tension, but the issue of ethnicity often has been overlooked throughout development efforts. Time after time, Afghanistan has spiraled into political chaos, with billions of dollars in humanitarian aid lost to corruption and inefficiency. In order for the Afghan people to have a government that can address their political and economic needs, ethnic tension must be at the forefront of any prospective leader’s agenda. It is also important to note that unlike in the United States, there are no major political parties to provide the candidates with an anchor to build on the party’s political ideologies.2 For those who decide to run for President and other senior level positions, Afghanistan’s political nature and the non-existence of a political party force politicians to rely on ethnic support and ethnic-led initiatives to win their constituents’ votes. It is thus critical to assess the role of ethnicity and how it affects both the political and social nature of voters. My hypothesis is that due to the lack of Afghan national identity, Afghanistan’s 2009 election involved ethnic voting and levels of 2 Esmati corruption benefitting one ethnicity more than the other. This paper analyzes these matters by providing a political background and historical context of the many ethnicities in Afghanistan. It then discusses the Afghan civil war after the withdrawal of the Soviets, along with the present tensions among the many ethnicities. Following the ethnic tensions, the election of 2009 will pull together the variables of ethnicity among voters to examine the voting behavior of Afghan citizens. Data analysis will highlight whether the two leading candidates of the 2009 election – Hamid Karzai and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah – have received votes based on their merits or on their ethnicity, along with other attributes such as the literacy rate of the population, and which ethnicity benefitted more from corruption. Ethnicities of Afghanistan Figure 1 Source: Afghanistan Election Data 3 Esmati Over the course of history, Afghanistan has experienced significant foreign influence and threats to be conquered by the Turks, Persians, Russians and British. The geography of the state has piqued the interests of Western powers due to its strategic location in Central Asia. Afghanistan shares a border to its West with the Islamic Republic of Iran and with Turkmenistan, both of which have abundant oil and natural energy resources. On the North, Afghanistan shares a border with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, also energy-rich states. In the East and South, Afghanistan shares a controversial border with Pakistan. Rough estimates of the ethnic composition today are as follows: Pashtuns 44%, Tajiks 25%, Hazara 10%, and Uzbek 8% (Simonsen, 2006). Since these groups are scattered all over the country, it is evident that by looking at the map of ethnicities, there is a concentration of Pashtuns in the South; and of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks predominantly in the Northern Parts of Afghanistan.3 Pashtuns consist of the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan; historically, they have been the most politically influential. They comprise about 30 tribes, each consisting of a clan or its own lineage. Of the 30, the “five major groups or confederations (are) the Durrani, Ghilzai, Karlanri, Sarbani, and Ghurghscht.”4 Most of the Durrani are found in the southwest, from Farah to Kandahar. The Ghilzai reside in the southeastern areas, usually from Kabul to Kandahar. The nomadic (kuchee) lifestyle of Pashtuns has led to negligible literacy rates, with the majority of people living in rural areas. Despite the numerous conquerors of Afghanistan, Pashtuns have showed little interest in following the policies or guidance of external actors. Their strict tribal loyalty has retained their independence and has led them to reject foreign intervention (Wiebke and Frost, 2011). The Tajiks are predominantly of Central Asian origin, sharing a kinship with neighboring Tajikistan. Compared to the Pashtuns, the Tajiks relay “their loyalty to families and community 4 Esmati and live in settled communities rather than leading a nomadic lifestyle.”5 Of the many ethnicities, Tajiks have been able to jockey for power with the Pashtuns. Rulers from the “Tajik led Afghanistan under two brief periods: (i) for nine months in 1929 under Habibullah Khan and (ii) from 1992 to 1996 under President Burhanuddin Rabbani.”6 The Tajiks aligned themselves with the Northern Alliance group, which cooperated with the United States and the international community in an effort to oust the Taliban regime. The Hazaras live mainly in the mountainous central provinces of Afghanistan and are present in the provinces of Jowzjan and Badghis. Since most Hazaras are Shi’a Muslims, they have “historically experienced discrimination and have been seen as the traditional underclass of Afghan society.”7 As a result of political and social repression, the Hazara have managed to unite and form their own resistance groups that protect their interests; their survivability depends on these groups constantly fighting to maintain their own lands (Harpviken, 1997). Lastly, Uzbeks are situated mainly in the northern provinces of Afghanistan. Much like the Turkmens, Uzbeks do not consider Farsi as their first language. Instead, they speak Uzbeki, a Turkic-based language that closely resembles Turkish. Additionally, most Uzbeks are involved in the agricultural facet of Afghanistan, growing mainly grain and vegetables. They live on arable land and are able to buy and sell agricultural products. As a result, “Uzbeks are the successful businessmen, silver and goldsmiths and leatherworkers of Afghanistan8.” For these reasons, Uzbeks in the past decade have been striving for greater political participation and have called for a federal Afghanistan and autonomy for the Northern provinces. 5 Esmati Afghan History After the fall of the Safavid Empire, Ahmad Shah Durrani, regarded as the founder of Afghanistan, took control of Kabul and a vast surrounding area that had belonged to the Persian Empire,9 under whose rule the Mongols, Persians, Turks, and Hindus had been living together. Once Durrani came into power, and believing in ethnic superiority, he filled the army and municipal positions with ethnic Pashtuns. By having a Pashtun majority in all positions of power, the Durranis led a campaign to rid Hazaras of their land and “dispossess the Hazaras of their land and give it to members of their own tribes.”10 On the other hand, the Tajiks saw the rise of the Pashtuns as a direct threat. The Tajiks pledged their loyalty to the Britons and the Russians. In 1892, the British invaded Afghanistan through the route of India. Seeing this as an opportunity to rebalance power in Kabul, the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras supported the British in trying to overthrow the Pashtun-led government. However, the British appointed to the throne a Pashtun named Abdur Rahman, who saw this as an opportunity to once again get rid of those who tried to challenge Pashtun supremacy. By bringing in western military equipment, and with the aid of the British, Rahman instilled absolute Pashtun control in Afghanistan which continued with the reign of Abdur Rahman’s grandson, Aminullah. However, Aminullah’s reign came to an end in 1928, with the rise of Habibullah Kalakani, a Kabuli and a Tajik. The Tajiks seized control of Kabul and for the first time in three centuries, gained home rule.11 The Tajik rule of Afghanistan was short lived. Mohammad Nadir Shah, a Pashtun who had joined Kalakani to overthrow Aminullah, favored a Pashtun-led government.