To Rebel or Not to Rebel? Explaining Violent and Non-Violent Separatist Conflict in Casamance (Senegal) and Barotseland (Zambia) A Comparative Framing Analysis Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen vorgelegt von Anne Lena Theobald aus Stuttgart Tübingen 2016 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 25.11.2016 Dekan: Prof. Dr. rer. soc. Josef Schmid 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Andreas Hasenclever 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Thomas Diez Contents List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... i List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ ii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Theoretical Foundations and Derivation of the Research Questions ......................... 3 1.1.1. Critical Review of Civil War Studies and Their Deficits ................................ 3 1.1.2. Bridging the Gap: Research Questions ....................................................... 6 1.2. Theoretical and Methodological Proceeding ............................................................. 7 1.2.1. A Very Short Introduction to Framing… ....................................................... 8 1.2.2. …and How It Will Be Applied ...................................................................... 9 1.3. Beyond the Cases: Contributions to the Literature .................................................. 10 1.4. Structure of the Dissertation ................................................................................... 12 2. Civil War Studies – Overview and Critical Discussion .............................................. 13 2.1. Definition of Key Concepts and Relevance of Civil War Studies ............................. 13 2.1.1. Definition of Conflict and Violent Conflict ................................................... 13 2.1.2. The Relevance of Civil War Studies .......................................................... 15 2.2. Review of Macro-Theories on Civil War .................................................................. 18 2.2.1. Grievances versus Greed: Economic Approaches to Civil Wars ................ 19 2.2.2. On State Weakness, Regimes, and Repression: Institutional Explanations of Civil War Onset ................................................................ 27 2.2.3. Identity as a Contested Cause of Armed Conflict ...................................... 32 2.3. Bridging the Gap: An Overview of Major Shortfalls of Conventional Theories and Potential Ways out ........................................................................................... 36 2.3.1. Critical Discussion of Prevailing Approaches to Studying Civil Wars ......... 36 2.3.2. Moving forward: Integrating a Micro-Perspective into the Analysis of Armed Conflict .......................................................................................... 39 3. Theoretical Framework: Framing as a Tool to Identify Micro-Mechanisms of Conflict Escalation ....................................................................................................... 44 3.1. Theoretical Considerations on the Integration of Framing into Civil War Studies ................................................................................................................... 45 3.1.1. Bridging the Gap: A Definitional Convergence of Social Movements and Armed Conflict.................................................................................... 45 3.1.2. The Emergence of Framing in Social Movement Studies and Its Potential for Civil War Studies ................................................................... 47 3.2. Clarification of Key Concepts: Frames and Framing ............................................... 50 3.2.1. Defining Collective Action Frames and Framing ........................................ 51 3.2.2. Conceptual Clarifications: The Distinction and Added Value of Framing in Relation to Similar Concepts ................................................... 56 3.3. Frame Resonance: The Missing Link between Words and Action ........................... 61 3.3.1. Ideas Matter – Interdisciplinary Insights on the Influence of Ideas on Action ........................................................................................................ 61 3.3.2. Frame Resonance: Criteria for Successful Mobilisation through Framing ..................................................................................................... 63 3.4. Potential Contributions of Framing to Theories of Violent Conflict ........................... 69 3.4.1. Framing as a Micro-Approach to Studying the Outbreak of Armed Conflict ...................................................................................................... 70 3.4.2. Shifting the Focus: How Framing Contributes to an Agent- and Agency-Centred Analytical Approach ........................................................ 72 3.4.3. Making the Invisible Visible: Studying the Impact of ‗Soft‘ Factors Regarding Conflict Onset .......................................................................... 73 3.4.4. Limits of Framing and Frame Resonance: Competing and Alternative Influences ................................................................................................. 74 4. Methodological Process: Data Collection and Analysis ........................................... 77 4.1. Methodological Process at the Cross-Case Level: Justifications and Procedure of a Comparative Case Study ................................................................................. 78 4.1.1. The Case Study Method in Theory ............................................................ 78 4.1.2. Criteria for Case Selection ........................................................................ 79 4.1.3. Theoretical Justification of a Case Study Design in the Field of Conflict Studies ......................................................................................... 81 4.2. Methodological Process at the Within-Case Level: Developing an Integrated Method of Framing Analysis as an Explanatory Approach ...................................... 85 4.2.1. Identifying Frames through Qualitative Content Analysis........................... 85 4.2.2. Framing Analysis II: How to Assess the Impact of Frames ........................ 88 4.2.3. Methodological Challenges to Analysing Framing in Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond ................................................................................... 101 5. The Casamance Crisis: A Case of a Violent Separatist Conflict ............................. 106 5.1. The Self-Determination Conflict in Casamance ..................................................... 106 5.1.1. Background Information: The Colonial Past ............................................ 107 5.1.2. The History of the Casamance Conflict ................................................... 109 5.1.3. Prospect: The Casamance Conflict after 2000 ........................................ 115 5.2. Conflict Actors ...................................................................................................... 116 5.2.1. The Mouvement de forces démocratiques de la Casamance .................. 117 5.2.2. The Senegalese State ............................................................................. 121 5.3. Conflict Analysis ................................................................................................... 123 5.3.1. Geographic Factors ................................................................................. 123 5.3.2. Identity-Related Factors .......................................................................... 125 5.3.3. Socio-Economic Factors ......................................................................... 127 5.3.4. Institutional Capacity and Degree of Democratisation ............................. 129 5.3.5. Repression .............................................................................................. 130 5.3.6. External Support ..................................................................................... 131 6. Rise and Fall of the MFDC: The Casamance Conflict through a Framing Lens ..... 133 6.1. The Communication Channels of the MFDC ......................................................... 134 6.2. The MFDC‘s Message: Identification of Collective Action Frames ........................ 136 6.2.1. Diagnostic Framing ................................................................................. 137 6.2.2. Prognostic Framing ................................................................................. 141 6.2.3. Motivational Framing ............................................................................... 144 6.3. Assessing Frame Resonance and Framing Effects in Casamance ....................... 148 6.3.1. A Successful Rebellion? Review of Effective Frame Resonance ............. 149 6.3.2. Losing Ground: Deficits in Frame Resonance ......................................... 160 6.3.3. Fighting for One‘s Rights: On the Emergence and Resonance of Violent Prognostic Framing ..................................................................... 168 6.3.4. With and without Diamacoune: Assessing the Credibility of Frame Articulators .............................................................................................