United States Government Accountability Office Report to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House of Representatives December 2014 GEOSTATIONARY WEATHER SATELLITES Launch Date Nears, but Remaining Schedule Risks Need to be Addressed GAO-15-60 December 2014 GEOSTATIONARY WEATHER SATELLITES Launch Date Nears, but Remaining Schedule Risks Need to be Addressed Highlights of GAO-15-60, a report to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House of Representatives Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found NOAA, with the aid of the National The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Geostationary Aeronautics and Space Administration Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) program has made major (NASA), is procuring the next progress in developing its first satellite, including completing testing of satellite generation of geostationary weather instruments. However, the program continues to face challenges in the areas of satellites. The GOES-R series is to schedule, cost, and functionality. Specifically, the program has continued to replace the current series of satellites, experience delays in major milestones and cost overruns on key components. which will likely begin to reach the end Also, in order to meet the planned launch date, the program has deferred some of their useful lives in 2015. This new planned functionality until after launch, and program officials acknowledge that series is considered critical to the they may defer more. United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of satellite data required for Delays in Key GOES-R Program Milestones weather forecasting through 2036. GAO was asked to evaluate GOES-R. GAO’s objectives were to (1) assess progress on program schedule, cost, and functionality; (2) assess efforts to identify and address issues discovered during integration and testing; and (3) evaluate the likelihood of a gap in satellite coverage and actions to prevent or mitigate such a gap. To do so, GAO analyzed program and contractor data, earned value data information, and defect reports, compared both defect management policies and contingency plans to best practices by leading organizations, and interviewed officials at NOAA and NASA. NOAA and its contractors have implemented a defect management process as part of their overall testing approach that allows them to identify, assess, track, What GAO Recommends resolve, and report on defects. However, shortfalls remain in how defects are analyzed and reported. For example, contractors manage, track, and report GAO is recommending that NOAA defects differently due to a lack of guidance from NOAA. Without consistency address shortfalls in its defect management approach, reduce the among contractors, it is difficult for management to effectively prioritize and number of open high-priority defects, oversee defect handling. In addition, more than 800 defects in key program and add information to its satellite components remained unresolved. Until the program makes progress in contingency plan. NOAA concurred addressing these defects, it may not have a complete picture of remaining issues with GAO’s recommendations and and faces an increased risk of further delays to the GOES-R launch date. identified steps it plans to take to As the GOES-R program approaches its expected launch date of March 2016, it implement them. faces a potential gap of more than a year during which an on-orbit backup satellite would not be available. This means that if an operational satellite experiences a problem, there could be a gap in GOES coverage. NOAA has improved its plan to mitigate gaps in satellite coverage. However, the revised plan does not include steps for mitigating a delayed launch, or details on potential impacts and minimum performance levels should a gap occur. Until View GAO-15-60. For more information, these shortfalls are addressed, NOAA management cannot fully assess all gap contact Dave Powner at (202) 512-9286 or mitigation strategies, which in turn could hinder the ability of meteorologists to [email protected]. observe and report on severe weather conditions. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 3 NOAA is Making Progress on the GOES-R Satellite, but Schedule, Cost, and Functionality Challenges Remain 14 NOAA Has Implemented a Defect Management Process, but Shortfalls Exist and Selected Critical Defects Remain Unresolved 26 Facing a Gap in Backup Satellite Coverage, the GOES-R Program Has Improved Contingency Plans Though Shortfalls Remain 34 Conclusions 40 Recommendations for Executive Action 41 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 41 Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 43 Appendix II Defect Trends for Key GOES-R Components 46 Appendix III Comments from the Department of Commerce 51 Appendix IV GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 53 Tables Table 1: Summary of the Procurement History of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 5 Table 2: Key Changes to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program over Time 8 Table 3: Instruments on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program 11 Table 4: Key Components of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program Ground Project 12 Table 5: Major Development Reviews for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program 16 Table 6: Delays in Milestones for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program 18 Page i GAO-15-60 Geostationary Weather Satellites Table 7: Best Practices in Managing Defects 27 Table 8: Assessment of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program Practices in Managing Defects 28 Table 9: Summary of Defects for Selected Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program Components 33 Table 10: Assessment of Satellite Contingency Plans for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program over Time 37 Figures Figure 1: Approximate Geographic Coverage of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 4 Figure 2: Generic Data Relay Pattern for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 6 Figure 3: Organizational Structure and Staffing of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series Program 10 Figure 4: NASA’s Life Cycle for Flight Systems 15 Figure 5: Changes in Key Test Dates for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program over Time 19 Figure 6: Increases in Cost Variance for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Ground System 22 Figure 7: Increases in Cost Variance for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Advanced Baseline Imager Instrument 23 Figure 8: Increases in Cost Variance for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Geostationary Lightning Mapper Instrument 24 Figure 9: Potential Gap in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Coverage, as of April 2014 35 Figure 10: Number of Open and Closed Defects for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Ground System, as of August 2014 47 Figure 11: Number of Open and Closed Hardware Defects for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Advanced Baseline Imager Instrument for Each Month from February 2013 to August 2014 49 Page ii GAO-15-60 Geostationary Weather Satellites Figure 12: Number of Open and Closed Software Defects for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program’s Advanced Baseline Imager Instrument from 2012 to 2014 50 Abbreviations ABI Advanced Baseline Imager CDR critical design review EVM earned value management FOR flight operations review GLM Geostationary Lightning Mapper GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES-R Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite - R series MDR mission definition review MOR mission operations review NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ORR operational readiness review PDR preliminary design review SDR system definition review SIR system integration review This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Page iii GAO-15-60 Geostationary Weather Satellites 441 G St. N.W. Washington, DC 20548 December 16, 2014 The Honorable Lamar S. Smith Chairman The Honorable Eddie Bernice Johnson Ranking Member Committee on Science, Space, and Technology House of Representatives Geostationary environmental satellites play a critical role in our nation’s weather forecasting. These satellites—which are managed by the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—provide information on atmospheric, oceanic, climatic, and solar conditions that help meteorologists observe and predict regional and local weather events. They also provide a means of identifying the large-scale evolution of severe storms, such as forecasting a hurricane’s path and intensity. NOAA, through collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), is procuring the next generation of geostationary weather satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite–R (GOES-R) series. The GOES-R series consists of four satellites