EXITING THE COLD WAR, ENTERING A NEW WORLD ENTERING A NEW WAR, THE COLD EXITING EXITINGEXITING THE THE COLD COLD WAR, WAR, WORLD ENTERING A NEW WAR, THE COLD EXITING ENTERINGENTERING A A NEW NEW WORLD WORLD DANIELDANIEL S. S. H AMILTONHAMILTON AN ANd KD RIKsRITINASTINA S POSPOhRH, RE, dEITORDITORs S ProgramProgram on Theon The United United States, States, Europe Europe andand World Order Order ForeignForeign Policy Policy Institute/Henry Institute/Henry A. A. Kissinger Kissinger Center Center for for Global Global Affairs Affairs JohnsJohns Hopkins Hopkins University University SAISSAIS ThisThis book book explores explores how how and and why why the the dangerous dangerous yet yet seemingly seemingly durable durable and and stablestable world world order order forged forged during during the the Cold Cold War War collapsed collapsed in in1989, 1989, and and how how a a newnew order order was was improvised improvised out out of ofits its ruins. ruins. It isIt isan an unusual unusual blend blend of ofmemoir memoir and and scholarshipscholarship that that takes takes us us back back to tothe the years years when when the the East-West East-West conflict conflict came came to to a suddena sudden end end and and a newa new world world was was born. born. In Inthis this book, book, senior senior officials officials and and opinion opinion leaders leaders from from the the United United States, States, Russia, Russia, WesternWestern and and Eastern Eastern Europe Europe who who were were directly directly involved involved in inthe the decisions decisions of ofthat that Exiting the Cold War timetime describe describe their their considerations, considerations, concerns, concerns, and and pressures. pressures. They They are are joined joined by by scholarsscholars who who have have been been able able to todraw draw on on newly newly declassified declassified archival archival sources sources to to revisitrevisit this this challenging challenging period. period. Entering a New World AuthorsAuthors include: include: AnatolyAnatoly Adamishin Adamishin LiviuLiviu Horovitz Horovitz JanuszJanusz Onyszkiewicz Onyszkiewicz John-MichaelJohn-Michael Arnold Arnold StephanStephan Kieninger Kieninger PavelPavel Palazhchenko Palazhchenko JoachimJoachim Bitterlich Bitterlich MartMart Laar Laar CondoleezzaCondoleezza Rice Rice RodricRodric Braithwaite Braithwaite RodericRoderic Lyne Lyne ThomasThomas W. W. Simons, Simons, Jr. Jr. DavidDavid C. C. Gompert Gompert MarkusMarkus Meckel Meckel KristinaKristina Spohr Spohr CengizCengiz Günay Günay WenckeWencke Meteling Meteling HorstHorst Teltschik Teltschik DanielDaniel S. S. Hamilton Hamilton AdamAdam Michnik Michnik PhilipPhilip Zelikow Zelikow JónJón Baldvin Baldvin Hannibalsson Hannibalsson SupportedSupported by bythe the German German Academic Academic Exchange Exchange ServiceService (DAAD) DANIEL S. HAMILTON S. DANIEL withwith funding funding from from the the German German Foreign Foreign OfficeOffice DANIEL S. HAMILTON KRISTINA SPOHR KRISTINA KRISTINA SPOHR SPOHR KRISTINA EDITORS ForeignForeign Policy Policy Institute Institute and and $30.00$30.00 EDITORS HenryHenry A. A.Kissinger Kissinger Center Center for for ISBNISBN 978-1-7337339-5-3 978-1-7337339-5-3 GlobalGlobal Affairs Affairs 53000>53000> SchoolSchool of Advancedof Advanced International International StudiesStudies (SAIS) (SAIS) JohnsJohns Hopkins Hopkins University University 17171717 Massachusetts Massachusetts Ave. Ave. NW NW Washington,Washington, DC DC 20036 20036 97978173381733733953733953 Tel:Tel: (202) (202) 663-5882 663-5882 DANIEL S. HAMILTON AND KRISTINA SPOHR, EDITORS [email protected]@jhu.edu DistributedDistributed by byBrookings Brookings Institution Institution Press Press Exiting the Cold War, Entering a New World Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr Editors Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr, eds., Exiting the Cold War, Entering a New World. Washington, DC: Foreign Policy Institute/Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University SAIS 2019. © Foreign Policy Institute/Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, 2019 Supported by Funded by Distributed by Brookings Institution Press. Foreign Policy Institute and Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 663-5880 Email: [email protected] http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu https://www.fpi.sais-jhu.edu/ https://www.kissinger.sais-jhu.edu ISBN: 978-1-7337339-5-3 Contents Acknowledgments ............................................... vii Introduction .....................................................ix Daniel S. Hamilton and Kristina Spohr Part I: Moving Out of Bipolarity Chapter 1 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3 U.S. Soviet Policy in the Cold War’s Last Years Thomas W. Simons, Jr. Chapter 2 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 The Endgame of the Reagan Doctrine: Democratic Transition in Nicaragua and Chaos in Afghanistan John-Michael Arnold Chapter 3 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 Superpowers Walking a Tightrope: The Choices of April and May 1990 Philip Zelikow and Condoleezza Rice Chapter 4 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 75 The Soviet Collapse and the Charm of Hindsight Rodric Braithwaite Chapter 5 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 99 The End of the Cold War: A View From the Trenches Roderic Lyne Chapter 6 . 121 Bonfire of the Vanities: An American Insider’s Take on the Collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia David C. Gompert Part II: The German Question Chapter 7 . 145 Gorbachev and the GDR Daniel S. Hamilton iv exiting the cold war, entering a new world Chapter 8 . 225 “Say One Thing and Think Another:” Internal British Debates in the Late 1980s on Germany’s Potential Reunification Liviu Horovitz Chapter 9 . 239 1989–1990: The End of the Cold War and Challenges for Europe Markus Meckel Chapter 10 . 269 The International Community’s Role in the Process of German Unification Horst Teltschik Chapter 11 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 281 Money for Moscow: The West and the Question of Financial Assistance for Mikhail Gorbachev Stephan Kieninger Chapter 12 . 297 Shifting Economic Assessments: Germany in a Changing World, 1987–1993 Wencke Meteling Part III: Freedom and Its Discontents Chapter 13 . 329 Estonia’s Path Out of the Cold War Mart Laar Chapter 14 . 341 The Baltic Road to Freedom and the Fall of the Soviet Union Jón Baldvin Hannibalsson Chapter 15 . 365 Poland and the End of the Cold War Janusz Onyszkiewicz Chapter 16 . 385 30 Years Ago, a Time of Joy and Hope Adam Michnik Part IV: Reflections Chapter 17 . 405 Why Did the Cold War End When and As It Did? David C. Gompert Chapter 18 . 427 The End of the Cold War: 30 Years On Anatoly Adamishin Table of Contents v Chapter 19 . 445 Mikhail Gorbachev and the NATO Enlargement Debate: Then and Now Pavel Palazhchenko Chapter 20 . 463 Turkey’s Changing Role After the Cold War: From Ideational to Civilizational Geopolitics Cengiz Günay Chapter 21 . 483 Reflections on “The End of the Cold War?” Joachim Bitterlich Conclusions ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 511 The Exit from the Cold War: Lessons and Warnings Kristina Spohr About the Authors .............................................. 527 Acknowledgments This book explores how and why the dangerous yet seemingly du- rable and stable world order forged during the Cold War collapsed in 1989, and how a new order was improvised out of its ruins. It is an unusual blend of memoir and scholarship that takes us back to the years when the East-West conflict came to an end and a new world was born. In this book, senior officials and opinion leaders from the United States, Soviet Russia, Western and Eastern Europe who were directly involved in the decisions of that time describe their considerations, con- cerns, and pressures. They are joined by scholars who have been able to draw on newly declassified archival sources to revisit this challenging period. All were able to exchange perspectives and offer comments at an authors’ workshop at Johns Hopkins SAIS on May 8, 2019—the 54th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. This project has been conducted by the Foreign Policy Institute and the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), specifi- cally our program on “The United States, Europe and World Order.” We are particularly grateful to the German Academic Exchange Ser- vice (DAAD) and the Federal Foreign Office (AA) for their support of our postdoctoral program and related activities, including this project. We would also like to thank our colleagues Francis Gavin and Chris- topher Crosbie, Director and Associate Director, respectively, of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS, and Carla Freeman, Director