A NETWORK ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S CENTRAL COMMITTEE: A DYNAMICAL THEORY OF POLICY NETWORKS by JEROME TAN SIBAYAN B.S., Oregon State University, 1988 M.Engr., University of Idaho, 2002 Master, U.S. Army War College, 2008 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies Program College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2013 i Abstract How does the social network structure of China’s Central Committee influence the direction and timing of intra‐Party events, domestic policies, and foreign policies? How do changes in network structures explain specific patterns and propensities for policy change? The purpose of this study is to describe the social network structure of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee from 1922 to 2011 and to explore the relationship between changes in the network and policy trends. This study draws on policy network theory, network dynamics, Veto Player Theory and Prospect Theory which together posit that dynamic network structural characteristics influence policy outcomes. I introduce a dynamical theory of policy networks and describe some observable implications. This mixed method analysis is based on a new network dataset and follows two major lines of investigation. A structured, focused comparison of case studies associates changes in the Central Committee’s network structure in 1969, 1978, 1982, and 1997 with consequent policy outcomes and demonstrates the explanatory power of the dynamical theory. Statistical analyses of China’s foreign policies (1949‐1978 and 1984‐1995) and China’s domestic policies (1984‐1995) suggest the dynamical theory is generalizable. Changes in paramount leader and potential competitor centralities and Central Committee centralization are important causal factors explaining the timing and type of intra‐Party, domestic, and foreign policies. ii A NETWORK ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S CENTRAL COMMITTEE: A DYNAMICAL THEORY OF POLICY NETWORKS by JEROME TAN SIBAYAN B.S., Oregon State University, 1988 M.Engr., University of Idaho, 2002 Master, U.S. Army War College, 2008 A DISSERTATION Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies Program College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2013 Approved by: Major Professor David Graff, Ph.D. iii Copyright JEROME TAN SIBAYAN 2013 iv Abstract How does the social network structure of China’s Central Committee influence the direction and timing of intra‐Party events, domestic policies, and foreign policies? How do changes in network structures explain specific patterns and propensities for policy change? The purpose of this study is to describe the social network structure of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee from 1922 to 2011 and to explore the relationship between changes in the network and policy trends. This study draws on policy network theory, network dynamics, Veto Player Theory and Prospect Theory which together posit that dynamic network structural characteristics influence policy outcomes. I introduce a dynamical theory of policy networks and describe some observable implications. This mixed method analysis is based on a new network dataset and follows two major lines of investigation. A structured, focused comparison of case studies associates changes in the Central Committee’s network structure in 1969, 1978, 1982, and 1997 with consequent policy outcomes and demonstrates the explanatory power of the dynamical theory. Statistical analyses of China’s foreign policies (1949‐1978 and 1984‐1995) and China’s domestic policies (1984‐1995) suggest the dynamical theory is generalizable. Changes in paramount leader and potential competitor centralities and Central Committee centralization are important causal factors explaining the timing and type of intra‐Party, domestic, and foreign policies. v Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................... x List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ xv Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xvi Chapter One ‐ Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 Problem Statement ..................................................................................................................... 3 Statement of Purpose ................................................................................................................. 5 Policy Outcomes ......................................................................................................................... 8 Intra‐party Level ...................................................................................................................... 9 Domestic Level ...................................................................................................................... 13 Foreign Policy Level ............................................................................................................... 19 This Study .................................................................................................................................. 23 Chapter Two ‐ General Concepts ................................................................................................. 27 China’s Second Central Committee: 1922 ................................................................................ 32 Guanxi ................................................................................................................................... 36 Social Network Analysis ........................................................................................................ 39 Praxis ......................................................................................................................................... 41 China’s Fourth Central Committee: 1925 ................................................................................. 44 vi Guanxi ................................................................................................................................... 46 Social Network Analysis ........................................................................................................ 48 Praxis ......................................................................................................................................... 49 China’s Fifth Central Committee: 1927 ..................................................................................... 52 Guanxi ................................................................................................................................... 57 Social Network Analysis ........................................................................................................ 61 Praxis ......................................................................................................................................... 63 China’s Seventh Central Committee: 1942‐1945 ..................................................................... 66 Guanxi ................................................................................................................................... 70 Social Network Analysis ........................................................................................................ 73 Praxis ......................................................................................................................................... 77 Chapter Three ‐ Central Committee Studies, 1949 to 2011 ........................................................ 82 Earlier Empirical Studies ......................................................................................................... 105 Earlier Network Analysis Studies ............................................................................................ 109 Shih, Shan, and Liu’s Study ..................................................................................................... 111 Chapter Four ‐ Theory ................................................................................................................ 116 A Dynamical Theory of Policy Networks ................................................................................. 116 Combination of Increasing Rates of Change Indicates Type 1 Outcomes .......................... 128 Combinations of Rates of Change Indicating Type 2 Outcomes ........................................ 130 vii Combinations of Rates of Change Indicating Type 3 Outcomes ........................................ 132 Combination of Decreasing Rates of Change Indicates Type 4 Outcomes ......................... 133 Chapter Five ‐ Research Design .................................................................................................. 136 General Study Description ...................................................................................................... 136 The Real Paramount Leaders and Potential Competitors of China ........................................ 137 Structured, Focused Comparison: Case Selection