Assessment of the Biological Monitoring Plan for San Diego’s Multiple Species Conservation Program Report for Task A of Local Assistance Grant #P0450009 August 2005 Prepared for California Department of Fish and Game Grant Coordinator: Dr. Brenda S. Johnson Prepared by Department of Biology, San Diego State University Lauren A. Hierl, Dr. Helen M. Regan, Dr. Janet Franklin, and Dr. Douglas H. Deutschman Draft – Assessment of the MSCP Biological Monitoring Plan August 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................................2 LIST OF TABLES.......................................................................................................................................................5 LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................6 CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................9 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................................9 MULTIPLE SPECIES CONSERVATION PROGRAM .........................................................................................................9 BIOLOGICAL MONITORING PLAN .............................................................................................................................10 PROBLEM STATEMENT .............................................................................................................................................12 CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................................13 CHAPTER 2: GOALS AND OBJECTIVES...........................................................................................................15 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................15 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES IDENTIFIED IN MSCP PLANNING DOCUMENTS ................................................................16 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES IDENTIFIED IN BIOLOGICAL MONITORING PLAN ..............................................................17 CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................................18 CHAPTER 3: REVIEW OF MONITORING TO DATE ......................................................................................19 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................19 MONITORING HISTORY OF JURISDICTIONS ...............................................................................................................19 City of San Diego ...............................................................................................................................................19 County of San Diego ..........................................................................................................................................22 Other Jurisdictions.............................................................................................................................................23 MONITORING HISTORY OF PARTICIPATING AGENCIES .............................................................................................24 U.S. Geological Survey ......................................................................................................................................24 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ...........................................................................................................................25 California Department of Fish and Game .........................................................................................................25 Other Agencies...................................................................................................................................................26 Non-Profit Organizations...................................................................................................................................26 ASSESSMENT OF THE MONITORING PLAN ’S IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................................26 2 Draft – Assessment of the MSCP Biological Monitoring Plan August 2005 Step 1: Identify the goals and objectives of the regional conservation plan......................................................26 Step 2: Identify scope of monitoring program....................................................................................................27 Step 3: Compile information relevant to monitoring program design ...............................................................27 Step 4: Strategically divide the system and prioritize for monitoring program development............................27 Step 5: Develop simple management-oriented conceptual models ....................................................................27 Step 6: Identify monitoring recommendations and critical uncertainties ..........................................................27 Step 7: Determine strategy for implementing monitoring..................................................................................28 Step 8: Develop data quality assurance, data management, analysis, and reporting strategies .......................28 Step 9: Complete the adaptive management loop by ensuring effective feedback to decision-making..............28 CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................................28 CHAPTER 4: REVIEW OF SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE RELEVANT TO BIOLOGICAL MONITORING PLANS........................................................................................................................................................................29 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................29 PRIORITIZATION SCHEMES .......................................................................................................................................30 Review of protocols for prioritizing species at risk of extinction.......................................................................30 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................................................33 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................................................34 INDICATORS , SURROGATES AND FOCAL SPECIES .....................................................................................................34 Indicators and Surrogates..................................................................................................................................35 Focal Species .....................................................................................................................................................36 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................................................38 CONCEPTUAL MODELS ............................................................................................................................................38 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................................................39 STATISTICAL ASPECTS OF MONITORING ..................................................................................................................40 Key Statistical Challenges in the Development of a Biological Monitoring Plan..............................................40 Statistical Sampling Theory ...............................................................................................................................40 Monitoring Through Time..................................................................................................................................44 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................................................45 3 Draft – Assessment of the MSCP Biological Monitoring Plan August 2005 CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................................46 CHAPTER 5: INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................47 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................47 INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................................................................47