CALIFORNIA URBAN CRIME DECLINED IN 2020 AMID SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC UPHEAVAL Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice Mike Males, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow Maureen Washburn, Policy Analyst June 2021 Research Report Introduction In 2020, a year defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, the crime rate in California’s 72 largest cities declined by an average of 7 percent, falling to a historic low level (FBI, 2021). From 2019 to 2020, 48 cities showed declines in Part I violent and property felonies, while 24 showed increases. The 2020 urban crime decline follows a decade of generally falling property and violent crime rates. These declines coincided with monumental criminal justice reforms that have lessened penalties for low-level offenses and reduced prison and jail populations (see Figure 1). Though urban crime declined overall in 2020, some specific crime types increased while others fell. As in much of the country, California’s urban areas experienced a significant increase in homicide (+34 percent). They also saw a rise in aggravated assault (+10 percent) and motor vehicle theft (+10 percent) along with declines in robbery (-15 percent) and theft (-16 percent). Preliminary 2021 data point to a continued decline in overall crime, with increases continuing in homicide, assault, and motor vehicle theft. An examination of national crime data, local economic indicators, local COVID-19 infection rates, and select murder and domestic violence statistics suggests that the pandemic likely influenced crime. Figure 1. California urban crime rates*, 2010 through 2020 3,500 3,000 -14% 2,500 -16% 2,000 Public Safety Proposition 47 Proposition 57 1,500 Realignment 1,000 500 -3% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Part I Violent Property Sources: FBI (2021); DOF (2021). *Total and violent offense rates exclude rape because the definition was broadened in 2014, hindering comparisons across this period. The unusually wide variation across crime types seen in 2020 suggests that the pandemic may have exerted both upward and downward pressures on the crime landscape. For example, COVID-19 lockdowns, which kept millions home, may have reduced the opportunity for robberies and thefts. Conversely, people experienced substantial psychological and economic strain during the pandemic, which may have contributed to increased homicides and assaults, as well as business failures and related cases of arson. If COVID-19 has indeed played a role in driving some crimes higher and others lower, recent crime rate changes may be short lived. Importantly, the pandemic also forced community-based service providers and social service agencies to dramatically shift the way they deliver treatment, aid, and supportive services. Many providers that previously focused on violence prevention, trauma recovery, or drug treatment were unable to offer in-person services. The Page 1 of 12 sudden and devastating economic crisis demanded that some turn their attention to meeting basic needs, such as food distribution. This profound disruption of services undoubtedly affected communities’ wellness and, by extension, their level of safety. 2020 Crime Trends • Crime rates fell by 14 percent from 2010 to 2020, including a 7 percent drop in 2020. Even before the pandemic, California was enjoying a period of record-low crime. From 20101 to 2020, crime rates in California’s largest cities fell by 14 percent overall, including a 3 percent decrease in violent crime and a 16 percent decline in property crime (Table 1). From 2019 to 2020, homicide, assault, and motor vehicle theft rose substantially, while robbery and larceny/theft fell substantially. During the same period, burglary rates remained stable, overall property crime fell 9 percent, and violent crime rates rose 1 percent. However, crime rates and trends varied widely from city to city in 2020 (see Appendix). Table 1. California urban crime rates* per 100,000 population, 2010-2020 Larceny Vehicle Year Total* Violent* Homicide Robbery Assault Property Burglary /theft theft 2010 3,286.9 482.6 5.7 209.9 267 2,804.3 605.6 1,719.2 479.5 2011 3,196.1 454.1 5.7 196.8 251.6 2,742.0 598.6 1,684.8 458.6 2012 3,448.2 462.6 6.3 201.9 254.5 2,985.6 640.9 1,818.2 526.6 2013 3,306.8 430.0 5.5 191.8 232.8 2,876.7 598.6 1,773.9 504.3 2014 3,094.6 423.2 5.0 169.8 248.4 2,671.4 528.9 1,684.6 457.9 2015 3,302.9 458.6 5.5 180.7 272.4 2,844.3 508.3 1,841.2 494.8 2016 3,225.8 479.2 5.8 184.3 289.1 2,746.6 471.6 1,760.9 514.1 2017 3,225.0 484.5 5.4 189.4 289.6 2,740.5 447.4 1,805.7 487.4 2018 3,102.5 473.7 5.0 181.4 287.4 2,628.8 423.6 1,754.1 451.2 2019 3,049.8 465.2 4.9 172.5 287.9 2,584.5 387.4 1,743.2 454.0 2020 2,827.8 469.2 6.5 146.3 316.3 2,358.7 387.1 1,472.7 498.9 2020 vs. 2010 -14% -3% +15% -30% +18% -16% -36% -14% +4% 2020 vs. 2019 -7% +1% +34% -15% +10% -9% +0% -16% +10% Sources: FBI (2021); DOF (2021). *Total and violent offense rates exclude rape because the definition was broadened in 2014, hindering comparisons across this period. Notably, from 2019 to 2020, rape rates declined by 10 percent. • 80 percent of California’s cities showed declines in crime from 2010 through 2020. Most communities were safer in 2020 than at the start of the decade, despite claims that reform would erode public safety. Of the 71 cities reporting consistent crime figures to the FBI, 58 showed decreases in Part I offenses2 from 2010 through 2020, and 13 showed increases. The variation that exists across California’s cities indicates that recent crime trends reflect local practices and conditions far more than state policies (CJCJ, 2016; 2017; 2018; 2019; 2020). • Large-scale criminal justice reforms are not driving increased crime. California’s “justice reform era” began in 2011 with legislative passage of Public Safety Realignment, which transferred responsibility for individuals with nonviolent, non-sexual, and non-serious convictions from state prisons to local custody and supervision (AB 109, 2011). In 2014, California voters passed Proposition 47, which reclassified several drug and property offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, resulting in the release and resentencing of thousands of individuals (Prop 47, 2014). In 2016, Proposition 57 offered early parole opportunities for people in state prison who participated in rehabilitative and education programs (Prop 57, 1 2010 was the last full year before Public Safety Realignment (AB 109) took effect, marking the start of California’s decade- long criminal justice reform era. 2 Part I offenses include the following violent and property crimes: homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. Page 2 of 12 2016). The state decriminalized marijuana in 2011 and legalized it with regulations in 2016, reducing marijuana arrests by 93 percent between 2010 and 2019 (DOJ, 2020; Prop 64, 2016; SB 1449, 2010). The uneven crime changes seen in 2020 suggest abnormal conditions that year. Moreover, the types of crimes that increased in 2020 are not the ones directly affected by California’s recent criminal justice reforms and are unlikely to reflect the lagging effects of law changes implemented four to 10 years earlier. Modest increases in violent crime reflect trends in felony assault, whose fluctuations tend to be driven by domestic violence incidents and policing (Holder et al., 2009). Local surges in motor vehicle thefts may be associated with more sophisticated theft operations given the changing age profile of those arrested (NCSL, 2008).3 Meanwhile, the offenses whose rates fell in 2020 (larceny/theft) or remained the same (burglary) are those directly targeted by reform efforts. Another indicator of the unique nature of 2020’s crime trends is shown by a relatively rare offense, arson. While arson had remained stable from 2010 through 2016, it has risen since, registering a 46 percent increase in 2020 (7,179 arsons, compared to 5,023 in 2019). Arson is not a crime associated with the reform of drug or property offense laws. • Early 2021 crime data show inconsistent trends across seven major cities. Seven major cities provide figures for varying periods of 2021 compared to the same periods of 2020 (Table 2). The comparison periods in early 2020 partly preceded the pandemic lockdowns. As is always the case with California jurisdictions, trends are erratic and inconsistent. Five of the seven cities show increased homicide, six show increased violent crimes (four of the seven show increases in rape, one shows increased robbery, and all seven show increases in felony assault), and four of the seven show increased property crimes (three show increased burglaries, all seven show increased motor vehicle thefts, and one shows an increase in other thefts). Table 2. Changes in reported crimes, seven major cities, 2021 vs. 2020 City Total Part I Homicide All violent All property Time period Long Beach +10% -9% +15% +9% Jan 1 - April 30 Los Angeles -6% +24% +5% -9% Jan 1 - May 29 Oakland -17% +135% +13% -23% Jan 1 - May 31 Sacramento +2% +50% +20% -1% Jan 1 - March 31 San Diego +14% -10% +19% +13% Jan 1 - May 31 San Francisco -9% 0% -88% -9% Jan 1 - May 31 San Jose +5% +75% +17% +2% Jan 1 - April 30 All seven cities -3% +33% +9% -9% 932 city-days Sources: LAPD (2021); LBPD (2021); OPD (2021); SPD (2021); SDPD (2021); SFPD (2021); SJPD (2021).