SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE Editor: ANTON GRIZOLD Ljubljana, 2003 SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE Editor: ANTON GRIZOLD Editorial Assistant: IZTOK PREZELJ Security Studies Collection Published by: FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Head of the Publishing House: IVAN HVALA Copyright © FDV 2003, Ljubljana All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be photocopied or distributed. Published as a part of the “Fostering studies on peaceful conflict resolution in Southeastern Europe” project, spearheaded by NELI DIMC Language revision: MAJA CLAVETTE Cover design and typeset: B&V Co Printed by: LITTERA PICTA CIP – Publication Catalogue Record National and University Library, Ljubljana 355.02(497)(082) ediSECURITY and cooperation in Southeastern Europe / editor Anton Grizold. – Ljubljana : Faculty of Social Sciences, 2003. – (Security studies collection) ISBN 961-235-115-5 1. Grizold, Anton 123551232 CONTENTS ACRONYMS ...............................................................................5 INTRODUCTION BY THE EDITOR ..............................................9 I. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF SECURITY SITUATION IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE HÅKAN WIBERG Peace, Security and Southeastern Europe ....................................21 RADOVAN VUKADINOVIĆ Security Issues in Southeastern Europe .......................................49 LJUBISA S. ADAMOVICH Economic Transition in Southeastern Europe...............................69 II. COUNTRY STUDIES ANTON GRIZOLD Slovenia and NATO: Experience from the Partnership for Peace Cooperation............................................................99 LJUBICA JELUŠIČ Defence Reforms in Slovenia 1991–2001 ....................................109 IZTOK PREZELJ Slovenian National Security and Southeastern Europe: Public Opinion Perspective ..................................................133 BOGOMIL FERFILA, PAUL PHILLIPS and BOB DONNORUMMO Socioeconomic Reforms in Slovenia and Southeastern Europe ....153 SINIŠA TATALOVIĆ The War in Croatia and Security in Southeastern Europe ............191 LIDIJA CEHULIĆ Transformation of Croatian Military ..........................................207 BILJANA VANKOVSKA Ten Years of Virtual Reality: Macedonian State-Building and Security Sector Reform..................................................227 4 III.OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUES RELATED TO PEACE AND SECURITY IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE ANTON GRIZOLD and IZTOK PREZELJ The Interorganizational Dimension of Security Cooperation: Pre-Dayton Crisis Management in Bosnia and Herzegovina....241 CHARLES F. CNUDDE Domestic Factors in U.S. Foreign Policy Decision Making: Implications for Strategic Issues in Central and Southeastern Europe ...........................................................265 KRISTINA PLAVŠAK Communicating Security and Cooperation in Southeastern Europe: Role of Public Opinion, Media and Communication ..............281 *** ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS.................................................297 5 THE ACRONYMS ABM Anti-Ballistic missile AKUF Arbeitsgemeinschaft Kriegsursachenforschung – Research Group on the Causes of Wars ALBA Multi-national Protection Force Mission in Albania ANP Annual National Program ARM Army of the Republic of Macedonia AVF All-Volunteer forces BH Bosnia and Herzegovina CAF Croatian Armed Forces CBMs Confidence Building Measures CDU, HDZ Croatian Democratic Union CE Council of Europe CEFTA Central European Free Trade Area CEI Central European Initiative CENCOOP Central European Nations’ Cooperation in Peace Support. CG Contact Group CINCSOUTH Commander-in-Chief of Southern Command CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COMAIRSOUTH Commander of Allied Air Forces in Southern Europe COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation COMNAVSOUTH Commander of Allied Naval Forces in Southern Europe COW Correlates of War CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe CTF Combined Task Force EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Community ECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe ECU European Union’s currency EMU European Monetary Union EU European Union EUCOM United States European Command EUROPOL European Law Enforcement Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment FRY, FR Yugoslavia Federal Republic of Yugoslavia FYROM Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 6 GDP Gross Domestic Product GDR German Democratic Republic GSOSRH General Staff of the Republic of Croatia HDZ, CDU Croatian Democratic Union HIS Croatian Intelligence Service HKoV Croatian Infantry HRM Croatian Military Maritime Forces HVO Croatian Defence Council ICFY International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia ICJ International Court of Justice IDEA Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance IFOR Implementation Force IMF International Monetary Fund IPI International Press Institute ITF International Trust Foundation IUS Inter-University Seminar JNA, YPA Yugoslav Peoples’ Army KFOR Kosovo Force LDC Low-Developed Countries MAAK Movement for All-Macedonian Action – political party in Macedonia MAP Membership Action Plan MAPE Multi-national Advisory Police Element in Albania MLF Multi-national Land Force MOD Ministry of Defence MORH Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Croatia MOU Memorandum of Understanding MP Member of Parliament NAC North Atlantic Council NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCO Non-Commissioned Officer NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIS New Independent States OOTW Operation Other Than War OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PARP Planning and Review Process PfP Partnership for Peace PIOOM Interdisciplinary Research Projects on Root Causes of Human Rights Violations (Netherlands) PR Public Relations SACEUR Supreme Allied Commander Europe SAF Slovenian Armed Forces SC UN Security Council SECI Southeastern Europe Cooperation Initiative 7 SEDM Southeastern European Ministerial SEE Southeastern Europe SEEMO Southeastern Europe Media Organisation SFOR Stabilization Force (in Bosnia and Herzegovina) SFRY, SFRJ, SFR Yugoslavia Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia SG UN Secretary-General SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIT Slovene tolars – Slovene national currency SJM Slovensko javno mnenje (Slovenian Public Opinion) SOFA Status of Forces Agreement SONS Headquarters for National Security (Croatia) SR UN Secretary-General Special Representative STANAVFORLANT Standing Naval Force Atlantic STANAVFORMED Standing Naval Force Mediterranean UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFICYP United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNMIK UN mission in Kosovo UNPA United Nations Protected Area UNPF United Nations Peacekeeping Forces UNPREDEP United Nations Preventive Deployment Force UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force UNS National Security Office (Croatia) UNTAET UN mission on East Timor UNTSO United Nations Truce Supervision Operation (Middle East) USSR Union of Socialist Soviet Republics WEU Western-European Union WTC World Trade Center WTO World Trade Organization WWII Second World War YNB Yugoslav National Bank YPA, JNA Yugoslav Peoples’ Army ZNG National Guard (Croatia) 8 9 INTRODUCTION I. The term Southeastern Europe contains various dimensions such as: geographical, historical, socio-political, cultural, military, etc. Today, most authors using this term emphasize the transitional situation of the countries in this region and focus their attention on the Balkan core and its near neighbourhood.1 Although for the time being there is no perceived military threat among the countries in the Southeastern European region, the Balkan core of the region is still facing specific political, economic, social, and defense challenges. The stability and security of the region core is influ- enced by many risk factors, among which the following is of the utmost importance: – ethnic tensions, intolerance and xenophobia could exacerbate extreme and violent nationalism in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH). The most problematic area in BH is economy, which shows signs of progress, but is still well behind the expectations. Black market, organized crime, slow return of refugees, unemployment and disbelief in the upcoming improvements add to the complexity of the current situa- tion. – Serbia is in the middle of political struggles and it will take time to gain political stability after the removal of Milošević. – Kosovo as well as Vojvodina’s request for autonomy, at least on the same level as before 1989. – Sandžak (with Muslim minority), which already asked for certain autonomy or even a merger with BH. – Macedonia is in the process of gaining more stability, however, the relations with Albanian population will have to be established on the basis of equality while resolving the extremism and the idea of the Great Albania. 1 While some authors define Southeastern Europe more broadly with the following countries: Greece, Turkey, Albania, Bolgaria, Romania and 5 new countries on the ter- ritory of former Yugoslavia (Slovenia, Croatia, BH, FRY, Former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia), others include in this region less countries, such as: Bolgaria, Romania, Albania and 4 countries on the territory of former Yugoslavia (Croatia, BH, FRY, For- mer Yugoslav Republic Macedonia). See Ecohescu (1996: 50–52) for the former and Lenzi, Martin (eds) (1996: 23–24) for the latter case. 10 SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE