Durham E-Theses President George W. Bush's Policy Towards Iraq: Change or Continuity? SHAREEF, MOHAMMED,JALAL,MAJEED How to cite: SHAREEF, MOHAMMED,JALAL,MAJEED (2010) President George W. Bush's Policy Towards Iraq: Change or Continuity?, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/501/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 President George W. Bush’s Policy Towards Iraq: Change or Continuity? Mohammed J. M. Shareef Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations School of Government and International Affairs University of Durham 2010 Mohammed J. M. Shareef PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH’S POLICY TOWARDS IRAQ: CHANGE OR CONTINUITY? Abstract A substantial amount of commentary has been dedicated to George W. Bush‘s policy towards Iraq, with many perceiving it as a departure from traditional US foreign policy practice. The objective of this research is to address and challenge this contention. This thesis takes 1979 as the launching point from which to examine this assertion, as it is both the year in which Saddam Hussein gained power as president of Iraq and also the year when the United States began tilting favourably towards, and reviving its relations with, this country. To embark on this study a descriptive and analytical narrative of the evolution of US foreign policy towards Iraq is presented, ending with the George W. Bush terms of office. This study contends that US policy towards Iraq has two major dimensions: the first is US policy towards Arab Iraq and the second its de facto policy towards Iraqi Kurdistan; both are defined by US strategy at the supra-national level. To guide this study, continuity and change were used as guiding concepts for analysing US Iraq policy at the national and sub- national levels. The study argues that US Iraq policy is primarily one of continuity rather than change, as US national interests and security, as regards Iraq, are defined by the same fundamental concerns, regardless of the nature of the American administration in office. The research concludes that, from the inception of the Bush administration, and the attacks on 9/11 that followed, the actual invasion of Iraq and US actions in its aftermath were all guided by the same considerations and goals. ii Declaration No material in this thesis has been previously submitted for a degree at this or any other University. The work is solely that of the author, Mohammed J. M. Shareef, under the supervision of Professor John Dumbrell and Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami. Material from the published or unpublished work of others which is used in the thesis is credited to the author in question in the text. Statement of Copyright The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No quotation from it should be published in any format, including electronic and the Internet, without the author‘s prior written consent. All information derived from this thesis must be acknowledged appropriately. iii Dedication To my parents, Professor Jalal Shareef and Gashaw Shalli, and my wife Dr. Rangeen Ibrahim iv Acknowledgments The research and writing of this PhD thesis could not have been successfully completed without the invaluable contributions of both my supervisors. To Professor John Dumbrell I owe a particular debt of gratitude. I am sincerely grateful for his continuous guidance and support throughout this long and solitary journey. I thoroughly enjoyed working with him and found him an inspiration for both his vast knowledge and humility. I will never be able to show appreciation enough for his willingness to take on this interesting yet controversial and, at times, difficult project. My heartfelt thanks also go to Professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami who, in his role as supervisor, nurtured this project with insightful suggestions and encouraging comments. The depth and breadth of his knowledge is nothing short of astounding and his encouragement and guidance were invaluable throughout. I would like to give special thanks to the Kurdistan Regional Government Representation in Washington, D.C. for their wonderful support during my three months of fieldwork in the United States. My special thanks go to Mr. Qubad Talabani and his staff, who extended unlimited assistance by helping arrange a large number of valuable interviews to enrich this research. Moreover, I would like to recognise and express gratitude to my brilliant friends who read through early manuscripts of this document. I wish to thank Alan Rose, David Ogilvie, Dr. Gillian Boughton, Iain Whitaker, Jacquie Evans, Judith Stevenson, Dr. Noel Kingsbury, Dr. Peter Scott, Ryan Phillips and Till Vere-Hodge for their invaluable suggestions and valid comments. I am indeed privileged to count them as my friends. I am deeply obliged to my sister Roshin Shareef and brother Aram Shareef for their enduring support and unceasing encouragement from the very beginning of this study. They were instrumental in raising my spirits and helping to bring this project to a successful close. Finally, I wish to honour and remember my beloved late grandmother Sabria Haji Hama Agha who passed away in my third year of preparing this thesis. I would like to express my limitless thanks for her unwavering love and support since my early days in high school and, most of all, for her constant encouragement to embark on this PhD study. v Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………. ii Declaration and Statement of Copyright…………………………………......... iii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………... v List of Acronyms………......……………………………………………………. x Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1 Background……………………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Aims and Objectives………………………………………………………... 3 1.2 Rationale and Motivation…………………………………………………... 4 1.3 Methodology………………………………………………………………... 6 1.4 Overview of Research……………………………………………………… 8 Chapter 2: THE BUSH PRESIDENCY PRE SEPTEMBER 11: RECONISING A FAILING IRAQ POLICY 10 Introduction……………………………………………………………………... 10 2.1 The Tilt in US Iraq Policy: Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan…………….. 10 2.2 The Tilt and Untilt in US Iraq Policy: George H. W. Bush………………... 14 2.3 From Dual Containment to Regime Change: Bill Clinton…………………. 17 2.4 The Failing Iraq Policy: George W. Bush………………………………….. 24 Chapter 3: INTELLECTUAL ROOTS OF THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY: THE POWER OF IDEAS 33 Introduction……………………………………………………………………... 33 3.1 The Neoconservatives……………………………………………………… 34 3.1.1 The 90s Gap and the Resurgence of Neoconservatism……………... 41 3.1.2 The Neoconservatives Post 9/11…………………………………… 44 3.2 George W. Bush: The President……………………………………………. 51 vi 3.2.1 The President’s Faith: A Neo-Reaganite War on Evil……………… 54 3.2.2 Having ‘The Vision Thing’………………………………………….. 59 3.3 The Assertive Nationalists…………………………………………………. 61 3.4 The Defensive Realists……………………………………………………... 62 3.5 Marriage of Convenience: The Vulcans……………………………………. 65 3.6 The Bush Doctrine………………………………………………………….. 69 Chapter 4: INVADING IRAQ: ONE DECISION, VARIOUS REASONS 72 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………... 72 4.1 Decision for War: A Creeping Evolution…………………………………... 72 4.2 Saddam Hussein: The Serial Gambler……………………………………… 82 4.3 Reasons for War: Different People, Different Agendas……………………. 85 4.3.1 Pronounced ‘Sounds Good’ Reasons: The Crust…………………… 87 4.3.1.1 Weapons of mass destruction………………………………. 87 4.3.1.2 Sponsoring terrorism……………………………………….. 91 4.3.1.3 Liberation……………………………………...…………… 94 4.3.2 Unpronounced Underlying Reasons: The Mantle……………...…… 96 4.3.2.1 Ending the threat to Israel…………………………………... 96 4.3.2.2 Easy target………….…….…………………………………. 98 4.3.2.3 Democracy promotion……………………………………… 99 4.3.2.4 A broader purpose: transforming a region………………….. 102 4.3.2.5 Oil…………………………………………………………... 106 4.3.2.6 Personal grievance: the assassination attempt on George H. W. Bush………………………………………… 107 4.3.3 The Primary Reason: The Core……………………………………... 108 4.3.3.1 The war that never ended…………...……………………… 108 vii Chapter 5: THE WAR IN IRAQ: A PLANNED WAR, AN UNPLANNED OCCUPATION 112 Introduction……………………………………………………………………... 112 5.1 A Dysfunctional Administration…………………………………………… 112 5.2 Mistakes Made in Iraq……………………………………………………… 117 5.2.1 Unilateralism………………………………………………………... 117 5.2.2 Lack of Understanding……………………………………………… 118 5.2.3 The Iraqi Opposition………………………………………………... 121 5.2.4 WMD………………………………………………………………… 122 5.2.5 A Non-existent Appetite for Nation Building………………………... 122 5.2.6 Low Levels of US Military Presence: The Manpower Deficit………. 127 5.2.7 Dissolving The Iraqi Army………………………………………….. 130 5.2.8 De-Baathification: A Cut Too Deep………………………………… 133 5.3 Unexpected Outcomes……………………………………………………… 135 5.3.1 Insurgency…………………………………………………………... 135 5.3.2 Shock and Awe: The Sudden Collapse of the Regime......................... 139 5.3.3 Looting……………………………………………………………....