URBAN CHANGE DYNAMICS: İZMİR CASE, 1927-2010 Saygın Can OĞUZ İzmir Institute of Technology December, 2013 URBAN CHANGE DYNAMICS: İZMİR CASE, 1927-2010 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School of Engineering and Sciences of İzmir Institute of Technology in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPY in City and Regional Planning by Saygin Can OĞUZ December 2013 İZMİR We approve the thesis of Saygın Can OĞUZ Examining Committee Members: ___________________________________ Prof. Dr. Cemal ARKON Department of Architecture, İzmir University ___________________________________ Prof. Dr. Sezai GÖKSU Department of City and Regional Planning, Dokuz Eylül University ___________________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Semahat ÖZDEMİR Department of City and Regional Planning, İzmir Institute of Technology ___________________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. İpek ÖZBEK SÖNMEZ Department of City and Regional Planning, Dokuz Eylül University ___________________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mert ÇUBUKÇU Department of City and Regional Planning, Dokuz Eylül University 17 December 2013 ___________________________________ Prof. Dr. Cemal ARKON Supervisor, Department of Architecture İzmir University ___________________________________ _______________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Adile ARSLAN AVAR Prof. Dr. R. Tuğrul SENGER Head of the Department of City and Dean of the Graduate School of Regional Planning Engineering and Sciences ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The completion of a dissertation is not possible without the support, assistance and encouragement of many people, some of which I hope to acknowledge here. I would like to thank Dr. Cemal Arkon, my dissertation advisor, who supported and encouraged me during the whole process. Many thanks to Dr. Semahat Özdemir and Dr. İpek Özbek Sönmez for agreeing to serve as committee advisors, and for their comments on earlier drafts and advice along the way. I am also grateful to Dr. Murat Güvenç at İstanbul Şehir University Center for Urban Studies, who supported me in analysing population shares of districts. I would like to express my thanks to Hamidreza Yazdani and Ezgi Ceren Karataş from İzmir Institute of Technology, Department of City and Regional Planning for their contribution in preparation of GIS outputs. I am also especially grateful to my friends and co-workers in the place I work, İzmir Development Agency, Planning Programming and Coordination Unit. Finally, and most especially, I am grateful to my lovely wife, Pınar Oğuz. The completion of this thesis would not have been possible without her precious support and help. I would like to give my special thanks to her and to my sweet son Deniz Oğuz, whose love fed me in every phase of the study. iii ABSTRACT URBAN CHANGE DYNAMICS: İZMİR CASE, 1927-2010 This study aims to describe urban change dynamics, especially growth and decline processes of settlements, by analysing population change. The geographical unit of analysis is districts and the data used is population statistics. Before studying İzmir, an extensive research is performed for Turkey with its 957 districts. Time series analysis involve the periods 1927-2010 and 2008-2012 as a more recent period. The findings reveal that, apart from total growth picture of Turkey, the processes experienced by districts diversify. The population agglomerates to urban centres, and this process coupled by rural population loss. Heavy rural decline of districts is especially evident in Interior Anatolia and Eastern Black Sea regions. After 1990s, in relation with some national policies, the process seems accelerated. In contrast with general expectations, Eastern and South-Eastern regions do not exhibit resembling dynamics of decline, owing to fertility rates relatively higher and lowering out- migration rates. In İzmir, four main dynamics of urban change are identified. First is rapid and consistent growth of central metropolitan districts. At the same time, industrial districts proximal to city exhibited high rates of growth. Decline is a persistent issue for distant districts with economies based on agriculture. This has critical importance for İzmir, as a city having considerable agricultural resources. On the other hand, coastal districts having the characteristics of more or less holiday destinations revealed sharp growth especially after 1980s. The reasons and consequences of described dynamics are many. These need investigation by further studies with a stronger focus on local facts. iv ÖZET KENTSEL DEĞİŞİM DİNAMİKLERİ: İZMİR ÖRNEĞİ, 1927-2010 Bu çalışmada nüfus değişimi temel alınarak kentsel değişim - büyüme ve küçülme - süreçleri incelenmiştir. İnceleme birimi ilçelerdir. Türkiye geneli için 957 ilçeyi içeren keşifsel araştırma ardından, İzmir örneği 30 ilçesiyle birlikte incelenmiştir. Veri olarak toplam, kent ve kır nüfusları kullanılmıştır. Zaman serisi 1927-2010 dönemini kapsamaktadır. 2008-2012 dönemi de güncel dönem olarak ele alınmıştır. Ortaya çıkan bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de toplam büyüme altında ilçeler ölçeğinde farklı süreçler sergilenmektedir. Nüfus daha çok kentsel merkezlere yığılmakta, bu kentsel büyüme sürecinde kırsal çözülme yaşanmaktadır. Kırsalda çözülme süreci, Türkiye geneli görüntüsüne göre ilçeler özelinde çok daha ağır biçimde deneyimlenmektedir. Bu dinamik özellikle İç Anadolu ve Doğu Karadeniz bölgelerinde çarpıcıdır. Tarihsel olarak ise 1990 sonrasında çözülme hızlanmaktadır. Bu durumun ülke düzeyindeki ekonomi, tarım ve kırsal politikalarla ilgili olduğu değerlendirilmektedir. Olası tahminlerin aksine, Doğu ve Güneydoğu Anadolu bölgeleri benzer küçülme dinamiklerini sergilememektedir. Burada hala ülke ortalamalarının üzerinde seyreden doğum oranları ile nispeten yavaşlayan göçün etkili olduğu değerlendirilmektedir. İzmir örneğinde dört temel kentsel değişim dinamiği tespit edilmiştir. Kent nüfusunu barındıran anakent ilçeler hızlı büyüme göstermişlerdir. Merkez çevresindeki Aliağa, Torbalı, Kemalpaşa gibi sanayi barındıran ilçeler, inceleme dönemi boyunca yüksek büyüme sergilemişlerdir. Şehre nispeten uzak, kırsal nitelikte ve ekonomisi tarım ağırlığına sahip ilçeler için küçülme kronik hal almıştır. Hem geçmiş dönem hem de güncel dönem analizlerde beliren bu dinamik, değerli havzalara ve tarımsal potansiyele sahip İzmir için olumsuzluk arz etmektedir. Diğer yandan, tatil beldesi niteliğine sahip kıyı ilçeleri, özellikle 1980 sonrasında çok hızlı büyüme performansları göstermiştir. Tanımlanan dinamiklerin sebepleri ve sonuçlarının yerleşme özelinde yapılacak araştırmalarla aydınlatılması önem taşımaktadır. v I dedicate this dissertation to my dear mother Sevim Oğuz. Her strength and courage during all her life inspired me to never give up. My mother passed away in March 2013, while I was working on this dissertation. Even when in her difficult times, she encouraged me not to ignore and continue my studies. My dear mother, your friendship, tenderness and love will always be missed. I will always keep you in my heart. This dissertation honours you. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... ix LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................... xv CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2. AIM, SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY ................................................... 7 2.1. Aim and Scope of the Study ................................................................... 7 2.2. Data and Methodology .......................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 3. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................ 15 3.1. Forms of Urban Change ........................................................................ 15 3.2. Defining and Distinguishing Urban and Rural ..................................... 20 3.3. Efforts on Classifying Settlements ........................................................ 23 3.4. World Trends on Urbanization ............................................................. 26 3.4.1 Urbanization in OECD ................................................................... 31 3.4.2. Urbanization in Europe ................................................................. 36 3.4.3. Theories of Urbanization in the Third World ............................... 38 3.5. Different Indicators of Urban Change .................................................. 40 3.6. Population as an Indicator of Urban Change ........................................ 42 CHAPTER 4. GENERAL TRENDS IN TURKEY ........................................................ 47 4.1. Population and Demography ................................................................. 47 4.2. Demography in the Future .................................................................... 49 4.3. Urbanization Trends .............................................................................. 51 4.4. Urban-Rural Distinction ........................................................................ 53 4.5. Population Statistics .............................................................................. 55 vii CHAPTER 5. POPULATION CHANGE IN TURKEY ................................................ 56 5.1. Population Change in the National Level