Analysis of social transfers for children and their families in Kazakhstan Table of contents Acknowledgements vi Abbreviations vii Executive summary 8 1 Study objectives 12 2 Study methodology 14 2.1 Quantitative methodology 14 2.2 Qualitative assessment 14 3 Social transfers for children and families with children 15 3.1 Developments in social protection in Kazakhstan 15 3.2 Social transfer mapping 16 4 Poverty and vulnerability 23 4.1 Vulnerable groups 23 5 Coverage and targeting effectiveness 25 5.1 Coverage of social assistance 25 5.2 Coverage by household and geographic characteristics 27 5.3 Targeting effectiveness 30 5.4 Key findings 31 6 Adequacy and poverty effects of transfers 32 6.1 Adequacy and amount of transfers received 32 6.2 Poverty effects of transfers 36 6.3 Key findings 39 7 Adequacy of transfers: Beneficiary perspectives 40 7.1 Key findings 42 8 Multiple transfer receipt 43 8.1 Key findings 44 9 Balancing household subsistence needs and child well-being 45 9.1 Key findings 46 10 Benefit adequacy: Lessons from international practice 47 10.1 Life cycle vulnerabilities and social assistance 47 10.2 Benefit structure 47 10.3 Coordinating programmes 48 10.4 Key findings 49 i Analysis of social transfers for children and their families in Kazakhstan 11 Fertility effects of transfers 50 11.1 International literature on the fertility effects of social protection 50 11.2 Empirical findings 51 11.3 Key findings 53 12 Social sector expenditure 54 12.1 Sector expenditure trends 54 12.2 Funding sources 55 12.3 Programme-specific expenditure 55 12.4 Expenditure per beneficiary 58 12.5 Key findings 58 13 Benefit delivery and beneficiary experience 60 13.1 Timeliness and accuracy of payments 60 13.2 Application procedures 60 13.3 Information dissemination, attitudes and behaviour of benefit administrators 62 13.4 Key findings 63 14 Access to social services 64 14.1 Social care and social work in Kazakhstan 64 14.1 Pre-school education and child care 65 14.2 Key findings 66 15 Social stigma and exclusion 67 15.1 Key findings 68 16 Conclusions and policy recommendations 69 16.1 Conclusions 69 16.2 Policy recommendations 70 References 73 Appendix 1: Poverty sensitivity analysis 75 Appendix 2: Additional tables 80 Figures Figure 1: Number of beneficiaries of TSA 16 Figure 2: Number of beneficiaries of the state allowance for children under 18 17 Figure 3: Number of beneficiaries of housing assistance 17 Figure 4: Number of beneficiaries of basic disability allowance 18 Figure 5: Number of beneficiaries of Allowance for Families with Many Children 18 Figure 6: Number of beneficiaries of the benefit for mothers with many children 18 Figure 7: Number of beneficiaries of the birth grant 19 Figure 8: Number of beneficiaries of the benefit for children under one 19 Figure 9: Benefit for parents/guardians caring for children with disabilities 19 ii Analysis of social transfers for children and their families in Kazakhstan Figure 10: Extent of pro-poor targeting of total social assistance 30 Figure 11: Targeting errors for means-tested social assistance benefits 30 Figure 12: Effect of transfers on the poverty headcount 38 Figure 13: Effect of transfers on the poverty headcount (households without children) 38 Figure 14: Effect of transfers on the poverty headcount (households with children) 38 Figure 15: The share of households receiving multiple groups of transfers 43 Figure 16: Population growth rate and birth growth rate 1991-2012 51 Figure 17: Birth growth rate and social support and welfare budget 2001-2011 51 Figure 18: Birth growth rate and social support and welfare budget 2003-2012 51 Figure 19: Expenditure on social sectors as a share of GDP, 2001-2011 54 Figure 20: Expenditure on social sectors as a share of total national government expenditure 2001-2011 55 Figure 21: Local expenditure on social support and welfare as a share of total national expenditure, 2001-2011 55 Figure 22: Local spending on local transfers as a share of total local expenditure 2001-2011 55 Figure 23: Expenditure on different social support and welfare interventions, 2001-2012 56 Figure 24: Expenditure on different social support and welfare interventions 2001-2012 56 Figure 25: Expenditure on each of the ten different social support and welfare interventions 2001-2012 57 Figure 26: Average expenditure per beneficiary for four main social support and welfare groups, 2001-2012 58 Figure 27: Average expenditure per beneficiary by transfer 2001-2012 59 Figure A1: Distribution of npc_cons 77 Figure A2: Distribution of neq_cons 77 Figure A3: Distribution of gall 77 Tables Table 1: Overview of qualitative interviews conducted 14 Table 2: Social assistance for children and their families in Kazakhstan 20 Table 3: Poverty of urban/ rural population at official poverty line 24 Table 4: Share of households by income quintile receiving Social Assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries), per month 26 Table 5: Distribution of beneficiaries across income quintiles (direct and indirect beneficiaries) 26 Table 6: Share of households by income quintile receiving Social Assistance (direct beneficiaries), per month 27 Table 7: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by gender of the household head, per month 28 Table 8: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by head’s labour force status, per month 28 Table 9: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by number of children (aged 0-14), per month 29 Table 10: Coverage by whether household has a member with a disability, per month 29 Table 11: Average per capita social assistance received by households (direct and indirect beneficiaries) in KZT, per month 32 Table 12: Average social assistance received by individuals within households (direct beneficiaries) in KZT, per month 33 Table 13: Analysis of adequacy of state social allowances 34 Table 14: Analysis of adequacy of Special State Benefits 35 Table 15: Analysis of adequacy of Social Assistance for low-income groups 35 Table 16: Analysis of adequacy of transfers for households with children 36 Table 17: Relative incidence of poverty 36 iii Analysis of social transfers for children and their families in Kazakhstan Table 18: Share of social assistance in household consumption 37 Table 19: Types and amounts of transfers received by the focus group participants 40 Table A1: Poverty levels according to the World Bank 2008 75 Table A2: The different consumption variables used for creating alternative poverty measurements 76 Table A3: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at subsistence minimum (PM) (neq_cons variable) 78 Table A4: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at 40% of subsistence minimum (PM) (neq_cons variable) 78 Table A5: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at subsistence minimum (PM) (gall variable [from the household data divided by household size]) 78 Table A6: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at 40% of subsistence minimum (PM) (gall variable [from the household data divided by household size]) 79 Table A7: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at subsistence minimum (PM) (npc_cons variable) 79 Table A8: Poverty measures by urban/ rural population at 40% of subsistence minimum (PM) (npc_cons variable) 79 Additional tables Section 4: Poverty analysis 80 Table A9: Poverty of urban/ rural population at 40% of the official poverty line 80 Table A10: Poverty by type of settlement 80 Table A11: Poverty by region 81 Table A12: Poverty by household head’s gender 82 Table A13: Poverty status by household head’s marital status 82 Table A14: Poverty by household head’s completed education level 82 Table A15: Poverty by household head’s labour force status 83 Table A16: Poverty by household size 83 Table A17: Poverty by number of household members aged 0-14 84 Table A18: Poverty by whether the household has a member with a disability or not 84 Additional tables for Section 5: Beneficiary analysis 85 Section 5.2: Coverage by household and geographic characteristics 85 Table A19: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by type of settlement, per month 85 Table A20: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries), per month, by region 85 Table A21: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by marital status of head, per month 86 Table A22: Share of households receiving social assistance (direct and indirect beneficiaries) by head’s education level, per month 86 Section 5.3: Targeting effectiveness 87 Table A23: Extent of pro-poor targeting 87 Section 8: Multiple benefit receipt 87 Table A24: Multiple grant receipt by type of transfer 87 Table A25: Multiple grant receipt by income quintile 88 Table A26: Multiple grant receipt by marital status of the head 88 Table A27: Multiple grant receipt by gender of the head 88 Table A28: Multiple grant receipt by urban/ rural 88 Table A29: Multiple grant receipt by education level of the head 89 Table A30: Multiple grant receipt by employment status of the head 89 Table A31: Multiple grant receipt by household size 89 iv Analysis of social transfers for children and their families in Kazakhstan Table A32: Multiple grant receipt by number of children of the household 89 Additional tables for Section 6: Benefit effectiveness 90 Section 6.1: Social assistance amounts received for vulnerable groups 90 Table A33: Average per capita social assistance received by households (direct and indirect