FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. The Center for Arctic Study and Policy 2017 Addendum to the United States Coast Guard High Latitude Region Mission Analysis A Seven Year Review and Validation of Need for Increased U.S. Government and U.S. Coast Guard Presence Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Project Director U.S. Coast Guard Deputy Commandant for Operations, Project Sponsor Center for Arctic Study and Policy The Center for Arctic Study & Policy (CASP) was established at the United States Coast Guard Academy to promote academic research on Arctic policy and strategy by facilitating collaboration, partnerships, and dialogue among specialists from academia, government, tribal organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), industry, and the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). CASP serves as an operationally focused academic think tank to promote research, broaden partnerships, and educate future leaders about the complexities of this unique region. Through collaborative efforts, the Center promotes effective solutions to address present and future Arctic maritime challenges as the USCG increases its Arctic presence. For further information about CASP or this Task Force, please contact Ms. Cara Condit, CASP Director, at [email protected]. 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Center for Arctic Study and Policy (CASP) with Dr. Rebecca Pincus as the lead researcher and author. Contributions from CASP staff also include LCDR Jeremy McKenzie as an assistant researcher and Ms. Cara Condit as co-editor. Any omissions or mistakes are the responsibility of CASP. CASP thanks the people and institutions with whom we met with and consulted during this project: Department of State National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and especially Dr. Amy Merten U.S. Arctic Research Commission (USARC) and especially, Dr. John Farrell The United States Northern Command and especially, Dan Torweihe Coast Guard District 17, and especially, Dave Seris, and PACAREA USCGC Healy USCG R&DC Border Guard of Finland, and the captain and crew of the Turva Finnish Transport Agency Arctia Ltd. Aker Arctic The National Snow and Ice Data Center and especially, Dr. Mark Serreze, Director Professor Craig Allen and the Arctic Law and Policy Center at the University of Washington The Arctic Coast Guard Forum The Meteorological Service of Canada and especially, Darlene Langlois, Chief Global Affairs Canada and especially, Jutta Wark, Director, Circumpolar Affairs Polar Knowledge Canada, and especially, Jeannette Menzies, Director, Knowledge Management and Engagement Transport Canada and especially, Drummond Fraser, Operational Liaison Officer; Laura Hoy, Policy Advisor, Strategic Policy and Innovation; , Senior Advisor Environmental Response Systems; Naomi Katsumi, Senior Advisor, Environmental Protection; and Nathalie Godin, Sr. Marine Safety Inspector The Canadian Coast Guard and especially, Robert Brooks, Director Economic and Industry Intelligence; and David Toomey, Marine Navigation Strategies WWF Arctic Program and especially, Margaret Williams, Managing Director, Arctic Program Dr. Martin Robards, WCS The Marine Exchange of Alaska and especially, Captain Ed Page, Executive Director Ms. Caitlyn Antrim Thank you to members of CG-DCO, DCO-8, DCO-I, and 5-PW for their unfailing support. 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. Thank you to CAPT Pavilonis, Dean Collela, CAPT LaBrec, CAPT Hall, and RADM Rendon for their leadership. Thank you to our research assistants Mr. Sam Klarich and Dr. Jon Skinner. Finally, this project benefitted from the capable and energetic assistance of Ms. Bernadette LeFaiver, to whom we are deeply indebted. To fulfill the HLS Addendum project, CASP convened a small task force comprised of independent scholars and experts with particular knowledge of polar affairs. The HLS Task Force members contributed invaluable insight and experience to the research and trend analysis in this report. They participated in two workshops, and contributed advice, feedback, and insights that shaped this report and its findings. Task Force Members: CAPT (ret.) Lawson Brigham, PhD University of Alaska Fairbanks MAJ GEN (ret.) Randy “Church” Kee Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC) VADM (ret.) Roger Rufe Dr. Nancy Kinner Mr. James Ellis University of New Hampshire Dr. Walter Berbrick Dr. Donald Perovich U.S. Naval War College Dartmouth College (and CRREL, until recently) Dr. Thomas M. Cronin Dr. Theodore Scambos U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS) National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) CASP would like to extend sincere appreciation to the members of the Task Force for their time, expertise, and dedication to this project and for their untiring support of CASP initiatives. 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. Table of contents Executive Summary Introduction 6 Part I. The Evolving Operational Environment 8 Environmental Changes 8 High Latitude Activities 21 Maritime Transportation Patterns 37 Part II. The Evolving Strategic Environment 44 International Law, Strategies, and Initiatives 45 National Security 62 Geopolitical Overview 72 Conclusion 83 Acronyms Appendices Reports Consulted Task Force Biographies Works Cited 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. Executive Summary In 2009, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) commissioned an independent series of studies to assess its ability to conduct required missions in the high latitude regions. The United States Coast Guard High Latitude Region Mission Analysis (“High Latitude Study”) was completed in July 2010. The Study consisted of a three-volume body of literature with the following mission analysis reports: Volume 1 – Polar Icebreaking Needs, Volume 2 – Arctic Mission Area Needs, and Volume 3 – Antarctic Mission Area Needs. In 2017, recognizing the changing state of affairs in the high latitudes, USCG senior leadership sought an update to the Study. The U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Center for Arctic Study and Policy was selected to determine and address the dynamic factors in the Arctic and Antarctic relevant to the USCG’s continued mission execution in those areas. The CASP convened a small task force of scholars and experts to inform its execution of the project, which was intended to serve as an Addendum to the High Latitude Study. As an Addendum, this report summarizes recent developments in both polar regions and assesses the current state of knowledge about what is to come. This Addendum to the 2010 High Latitude Study provides confidence in the original findings and encourages the sustained reliance on its initial recommendations. SUMMARY OF ARCTIC FINDINGS Since 2010, the state of affairs in the Arctic and Antarctic regions has evolved significantly. The Arctic region is experiencing increasing human activity, although the enormous amount of media attention has outpaced the reality of development. However, high levels of media attention reflect growing public awareness and interest in the Arctic region, largely driven by perceptions of environmental change and increasing geopolitical tension. Media attention also increases scrutiny of government actions (and non- actions) in the Arctic. While a number of factors have contributed to slow-moving development of hydrocarbon and mining resources in the Arctic, the significant growth in cruise tourism in the region, as well as skyrocketing numbers of transpolar flights, pose an immediate risk to human life and environmental integrity. Growing numbers of Arctic cruises carry risks that, while mitigated to a certain extent by the IMO Polar Code, nevertheless comprise a real challenge to maritime authorities. Warming in the Arctic is already leading to a longer and larger window of ice-free conditions, opening the possibility of profitable seasonal trans-Arctic commercial shipping through polar routes that offer considerable savings between northern ports in Asia, Europe, and North America. While the ice retreat will lead to a longer season of navigation, through routes farther offshore, the high variability of spring and fall conditions will pose a danger to even seasoned operators. 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO) Published under 5 U.S.C. 552 This document contains sensitive information intended for government use on a need-to-know basis only. Do not make additional distribution or external disclosures without proper approval. In the longer perspective, maritime risk will remain high through the 21st century as warming in the Arctic region leads to significantly unsettled climate, weather, and