Kent Academic Repository Full text document (pdf) Citation for published version Abbs, Luke (2018) Ethno-Political Inequalities and Intra-State Conflict. Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) thesis, University of Kent,. DOI Link to record in KAR https://kar.kent.ac.uk/69137/ Document Version UNSPECIFIED Copyright & reuse Content in the Kent Academic Repository is made available for research purposes. Unless otherwise stated all content is protected by copyright and in the absence of an open licence (eg Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher, author or other copyright holder. Versions of research The version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version. Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite the published version of record. Enquiries For any further enquiries regarding the licence status of this document, please contact: [email protected] If you believe this document infringes copyright then please contact the KAR admin team with the take-down information provided at http://kar.kent.ac.uk/contact.html Ethno-Political Inequalities and Intra-State Conflict Luke Abbs Conflict Analysis Research Centre (CARC) The University of Kent A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctoral of Philosophy in International Conflict Analysis Table Contents Abstract 3 Acknowledgments 5 1. Introduction 7 1.1. Motivation 7 1.2. Contributions to the Wider Literature 13 1.3. Scepticism of Grievance Approaches by ‘Feasibility Perspectives’ 13 1.4. Additional Problems with Existing ‘Feasibility’ Approaches 16 1.5. Ongoing Problems with the Institutional Grievance Perspective 17 1.6. Theoretical Framework 20 1.7. Introducing the Empirical Chapters 28 2. The Language of the Unheard: Ethno-Political Exclusion and Ethnic Riots in Africa 47 Chapter Abstract 47 2.1. Introduction 48 2.2. Existing Literature on why Ethnic Riots occur 52 2.3. The Importance of Ethnic Politics and Proximity 54 2.4. Ethno-Political Contexts in which Ethnic Riots Occur 57 2.5. Research Design 62 2.6. Results 67 2.7. Conclusion 74 Chapter Appendix 84 3. The Hunger Games: Food Prices, Ethnic Cleavages and Nonviolent Unrest in Africa 123 Chapter Abstract 123 3.1. Introduction 124 3.2. Ethnic Divisions and Nonviolent Mobilisation 126 3.3. Grievances and Nonviolent Action 127 3.4. Resources, Opportunities and Nonviolent Action 130 3.5. Local Structures and the Emergence of Nonviolent Action 131 3.6. Food Prices Spikes and Overcoming Obstacles to Nonviolent Mobilisation 133 3.7. Research Design 136 3.8. Results 144 3.9. Conclusion 150 Chapter Appendix 160 1 4. Ethnicity, Pro-Government Militias and the Duration of Civil War (co-authored with Govinda Clayton and Andrew Thompson) 175 Chapter Abstract 175 4.1. Introduction 176 4.2. The Drivers of Conflict Duration 178 4.3. Pro-Government Militias 180 4.4. Ethnic Pro-Government Militias 182 4.5. Ethnic Pro-Government Militia and the Duration of Civil War 185 4.6. Research Design 192 4.7. Results 197 4.8. Results II: Coethnic Pro-Government Militias in Sudan 205 4.9. Conclusion 209 Chapter Appendix 220 5. Conclusion 250 5.1. Ethno-Political Inequalities and Ethnic Riots in Africa 250 5.2. Ethno-Political Inequalities and Nonviolent Action 251 5.3. Ethno-Political Inequalities, Ethnic PGMs, and Civil War 252 5.4. Future areas of Research 253 5.5. Policy Implications 257 2 Abstract: This thesis investigates the relationship between ethnic-based political inequalities and political conflict. Building on recent theoretical and methodological advancements, I develop three empirical chapters that investigate distinct, yet unrelated mechanisms linking ethno-political configurations to disparate forms of contentious action. These chapters each utilise quantitative methods, and new subnational-level and actor-level data, to uncover a number of important findings regarding types of conflict behaviour not captured by civil war analyses. The first empirical chapter focuses on ethnic riots, a type of non-militarised violence involving violent clashes between civilians of rival ethnic groups. I argue that this previously overlooked form of political violence is likely to emerge when there is: politically dominant ethnic groups coexisting with a group facing systematic political discrimination or a loss of power. I find support for this argument through the first cross-national and subnational analysis of ethnic riots in Africa. The second empirical chapter focuses on the incidence of mass nonviolent action, which involves the mobilisation of large numbers of diverse people. I argue that cleavages within and across ethnic groups often undermine this kind of political mobilisation, but that cross cutting grievances can overcome this issue and facilitate resistance. Testing this argument sub-nationally, I find support for my argument that the relationship between ethno-political inequalities and nonviolent action is dependent on the existence of cross-cutting grievances, as this provides opportunities for disparate groups to unite against the state. The final empirical chapter (co-authored with Govinda Clayton and Andrew Thompson) explores the relationship between ethnic militias, either recruited from politically dominant or disadvantaged ethnic groups, and civil war duration. We thereby move beyond assumptions that the government-side is unitary. We argue that coethnic PGMs (i.e. those recruited from the same ethnicity as the ruling elite) are associated with longer conflicts, as they have strong 3 incentives to maintain ethno-political power and further polarise ethnic divisions. We find strong support for these claims in a global time-series cross sectional analysis. 4 Acknowledgements I would like to thank all those who have made this dissertation possible and have supported me throughout the process. This thesis not only echoes hard work and years of study, but is a clear reflection of the help, support and guidance of many people. Firstly, I would like to provide a wholehearted gratefulness to my supervisor Govinda Clayton, who has been a friend, a constant source of inspiration, and a mentor since my undergraduate years. Govinda has been one of few people in my life to provide me with an opportunity to excel and has always provided sound advice, support, and excellent suggestions - I will always miss our office meetings! Secondly, my achievements quite simply would not have been possible without the unconditional love and support from my parents – Allen and Michelle. My parents have always encouraged me to learn and use knowledge as a means to change my own circumstances and better the circumstances of others around me. I have come a long way from my time growing up in ‘The Groves’, and I will be forever grateful to my parents for helping me navigate the various challenges and obstacles that I have faced throughout my life. I extend this heartfelt thank you to the other important women in my life – my future wife Hayley (and her family) who has supported me through the good and bad, often at hand with a cup of tea and accompanied with a smile! To my sister Mia, and my grandmother, Gloria, who have constantly been a source of love and inspiration, and to the rest of my family (Roy, Terry, Christine, Lee, Julie, Leslie, my cousins), and friends (Deepak, James, Fares, and co). You have all helped me maintain a social life, kept me level-headed, and have added many wonderful memories and genuine richness to my life. Thirdly, I would like to thank the many colleagues at Kent for their support and valuable comments throughout the process. A special thank you goes to the hardcore CARCers Daniel 5 Kirkpatrick and Rob Nagel who have taken a distinct interest in my work, and to others – Philip Cunliffe, Hugh Miall, Edward Morgan-Jones, Lucy Barnes (now at UCL), Feargal Cochrane, Neo Loizides, Charles Devellennes, Toni Haastrup and Nadine Ansorg, who helped me develop each of the papers. This is extended to the professional services both past and present that have looked after me during my time at Kent including: Suzie Westwood, Gemma and Rob Chapman, Dora Perera, Nicola Huxtable, Siobhan Dumphy, Sara Witchell, Jessica Shepheard, and Kafui Osuteye. Lastly, I have to thank a number of excellent scholars and associates that have offered comments and advice at various conferences and workshops. This includes, but is not limited to: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Joakim Kreutz, Kristin Bakke, Halvard Buhaug, Jonas Nordkvelle, Roos van der Haer, Jessica Di Salvatore, Gokhan Ciflikli, Roman-Gabriel Olar, Margherita Belgioioso, Lars-Erik Cederman, Francis Stewart, Tobias Bohmelt, Kaisa Hinkkainen, Federica Genovese, Vincenzo Bove, Hannah Smidt, Corrine Bara, Enzo Nussio, Todd Smith, Idean Salehyan, Omar McDoom, Charles Butcher, and Ches Thurber. A final thank you goes to those at the Sie Center at Denver who provided many through-provoking discussions and an inspirational environment during my three-month fellowship in the wonderful state of Colorado. A special thank you goes to Chris Shay for making my stay so memorable, and all the other Sie members including: Erica Chenoweth, Deborah Avant, Marie Berry, Cullen Hendrix, Oliver Kaplan, Laura Hosman, Paul Kemp, Jonathon Pinkney, Maria Lotito, Steven Zech, Michael Kalin and Pauline Moore. 6 Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1. Motivation Inequality is often raised as an important determinant of political conflict. Contemporary research suggests that group-based inequalities are most likely to have a detrimental effect on conflict behaviour (see Stewart, 2002; Stewart, 2008).1 This type of group-based inequality is referred to as ‘horizontal inequalities’ (HIs). HIs are inequalities between groups of people who share a common ethnic identity and heritage. In contexts where high levels of HIs exist, group grievances can be greatly enhanced and more easily politicised. This often facilitates collective mobilisation and political conflict (Stewart, 2010b). HIs are distinguishable from ‘vertical inequalities’ which are disparities between individuals or households, rather than groups.