Feasibility Study of Disaster Risk Area Identification and Scientific Mapping (HAZARD) in Gandaki Province, Nepal Submitted to: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Law Gandaki Province, Nepal Submitted by: GeoNet Connection Pvt. Ltd. (Research and Mapping Centre) Pokhara Metropolitan City, Ward No. 6 Gandaki Province, Nepal Email: [email protected] 30 June, 2019 i ABSTRACT Nepal is a hazard risk country. Human casualties and property loss are major consequences of the disaster. Gandaki province is covered by Himalayas, Mountains and Hills therefore it has also high disaster risk. To identify and map the disaster risk zone, ministry of internal affair and law, Gandaki province conduct this study through province. The study identify Gorkha district as hazard risk district of the Gandaki province. Parbat district has low amount of risk land. It may be due to smallest district of the province. The study identified 6349 km2 fire risk zone, 1443.33 km2 flood risk zone and 3371.32 km2 landslide risk zone in the Gandaki province. Land use land cover and precipitation are most important variables to model the fire risk. Shrub land, forests and areas having low precipitation are more susceptible to fire risk. Distances to water and slope are most important variables to model the flood risk. Lands near to the water and flat area are facing the flood risk. Slope and land use land cover are most important variables to model the landslide risk. Lands around the river sides and steep slopes are more risky area in terms of landslides. Similarly, road accidents, hailstones and lightning are also serious hazards in the province. Among all 11 districts of the province, Parbat district is more vulnerable to the hailstone and lightning. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to express our gratitude to Ministry of Internal Affairs and Law, Gandaki Province Pokhara, Nepal for selecting our organization as qualified organization for conducting research entitled "Feasibility Study of Disaster Risk Area Identification and Scientific Mapping (HAZARD) in Gandaki Province, Nepal." We would also like to express our heartfelt thanks to Honorable Minister Hari Bahadur Chuman and secretary Manohar Prasad Khanal of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Law for their cooperation in conducting research study. Aafter selecting our consultancy for study, we regularly got support from the related staffs of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Law, Gandaki Province Pokhara, Nepal. Especially we thank Prakash Dhungana, Basanta Koirala and Ganga Bahadur Thapa for their co-ordinations and co-operation. We are grateful to staffs of district administration offices, district police offices of all 11 districts of the province for their valuable information and suggestions. Similarly, our thank goes to the related staffs and representatives of District Co-ordination Committee, Metropolitan city, Municipalities, and Rural Municipalities, and Red Cross Society of all 11 districts of the province for their valuable suggestions and information. This study was possible after sincere support from researchers and students. We want to thank all of them for their kind and valuable supports. Thanks. Prof. Dr. Krishna K.C. Team Leader GeoNet Connection Pvt. Ltd., Pokhara June, 2019 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background ....................................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem statement .......................................................................................................................................................3 1.3 Objective of the study ...............................................................................................................................................5 1.4 Limitation of the study ..............................................................................................................................................5 2. Literature review ..................................................................................................................... 6 3. Materials and methods ............................................................................................................ 8 3.1 Study area .........................................................................................................................................................................8 3.2 Geology .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Topography .................................................................................................................................................. 12 3.3.1 Aspect .................................................................................................................................................. 15 3.3.2 Elevation ............................................................................................................................................ 16 3.3.3 Slope .................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.4 Distance to water............................................................................................................................. 19 3.4 Climate ........................................................................................................................................................... 24 3.4.1 Mean Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 24 3.4.2 Mean Temperature ......................................................................................................................... 25 3.4.3 Solar Radiation ................................................................................................................................ 26 3.5 Vegetation ..................................................................................................................................................... 27 3.5.1 Forest distribution ........................................................................................................................... 28 3.6 Anthropogenic Hazard ............................................................................................................................. 29 3.6.1 Land Use Land Cover ................................................................................................................... 29 3.6.2 Distance to Road, Path and Settlement ................................................................................... 30 3.2 Data collection ............................................................................................................................................................ 32 3.2.1 Primary data collection ................................................................................................................. 32 3.2.2 Secondary data collection ............................................................................................................ 33 3.2.3 Environmental variables............................................................................................................... 33 3.2.3.1 Topographical variables ...........................................................................34 3.2.3.2 Climatic variables ......................................................................................34 3.2.3.3 Vegetation-related variables ......................................................................34 3.2.3.4 Anthropogenic variables ............................................................................34 3.3 Hazard modelling ...................................................................................................................................................... 35 3.4 Accuracy assessment .............................................................................................................................................. 36 4. Identification of disaster risk................................................................................................. 37 4.1 Fire risk ........................................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1.1 Factors determining the fire risk zone .................................................................................... 37 4.1.2 Fire risk in Gandaki province ..................................................................................................... 39 4.1.3 Model accuracy of fire risk modeling ..................................................................................... 41 4.2 Flood risk ....................................................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2.1 Factors determining the flood zone.......................................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Flood risk in Gandaki province ................................................................................................. 44 4.2.3 Model accuracy of flood risk modeling ................................................................................