GLOBAL CHANGE & ECOSYSTEMS Volume 1: Predictions on Terrestrial Ecosystems Otmar Urban Karel Klem Global Change Research Centre Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i. Brno 2015 GLOBAL CHANGE & ECOSYSTEMS Volume 1: Predictions on Terrestrial Ecosystems Otmar Urban Karel Klem Global Change Research Centre Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i. Brno 2015 Publication of this book was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the National Programme for Sustainability I, grant No. LO1415. Title: Global Change & Ecosystems Volume 1: Predictions on Terrestrial Ecosystems Editors: Otmar Urban, Karel Klem Published by: Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i. Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic First edition Brno 2015 Copyright © 2015 by the authors Contact person: Otmar Urban, T: +420511192250, E: [email protected] ISBN: 978-80-87902-14-1 Contents Preface Urban, O. & Klem, K. 7 Chapter 1 Climate change and future scenarios Ač, A., Krupková, L. & Marek, M.V. 8 Chapter 2 Climate change scenarios for Europe (with special attention to the Czech Republic) in terms of changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions Dubrovský, M. & Trnka, M. 25 Chapter 3 Assessing Köppen-Geiger climate classification by individual regional climate models considering the influence of bias correction methods Szabó-Takács, B., Farda, A., Štěpánek, P., Skalák, P. & Zahradníček, P. 38 Chapter 4 Temporal dynamics and spatial identification of growth increment Pokorný, R., Szatniewska, J. & Janouš, D. 45 Chapter 5 Ecosystem stations – a tool for global change observations Havránková, K., Šigut, L., Macálková, L., Dušek, J., Sedlák, P. & Pavelka, M. 58 Chapter 6 Modification of carbon cycle in forest ecosystems by distinct sky conditions Urban, O., Pavelka, M. & Klem, K. 68 Chapter 7 Effect of elevated CO2 concentration: Acclimation of Rubisco Urban, O. & Šprtová, M. 79 Chapter 8 Effect of elevated CO2 concentration: Tree morphology and biomass production Pokorný, R., Szatniewska, J. & Krejza, J. 89 Chapter 9 Interactive effects of ultraviolet and photosynthetically active radiation on photosynthesis, growth, and photoprotective mechanisms Klem, K. & Urban, O. 99 Chapter 10 Drought and biomass production in natural grassland ecosystems Holub, P. 113 Chapter 11 Changing risk of agricultural drought in the Czech Republic Trnka, M., Balek, J., Dubrovský, M. & Semerádová, D. 123 Chapter 12 How does temperature affect carbon dioxide emissions? Dařenová, E. & Acosta, M. 130 Chapter 13 Effect of ozone concentration on net ecosystem production: A case study in a Norway spruce forest Zapletal, M., Edwards-Jonášová, M., Juráň, S., Urban, O., Pokorný, R., Pavelka, M., Janouš, D. & Cudlín, P. 138 Chapter 14 Impact of anticipated climate change on recovery from acidification of an acid-sensitive forested catchment Hruška, J., Lamačová, A., Oulehle, F., Krám, P., Farda, A. & Chuman, T. 150 Chapter 15 Global change effects on insect diversity with examples from butterflies in the High Sudetes Bílá, K. & Kindlmann, P. 163 Chapter 16 Effect of global change on orchid diversity: A meta-analysis Traxmandlová, I., Kindlmann, P. & Štípková, Z. 176 Chapter 17 New approaches to forest above-ground biomass assessment Brovkina, O., Novotný, J. & Zemek, F. 186 Chapter 18 Impacts of land use and climate change on ecosystem services in the Czech Republic Krkoška Lorencová, E., Harmáčková, Z.V. & Vačkář, D. 197 Preface According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, global climate change is “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. Ecosystems are among the most important and most vulnerable of the Earth’s resources, as they are criti- cal for sustaining life on the planet. The benefits that living organisms derive from ecosystems are most- ly related to energy, carbon, and water cycling, but such other elements as nitrogen and phosphorus are also of great importance. Global climate change will unquestionably affect the major cycles comprising the ways in which energy and chemicals flow through plants, herbivores, micro-organisms, and other liv- ing organisms. Depending upon ecosystems’ sensitivity to the manifestations of global climate change, these impacts can be either slowed or accelerated. Ecosystems are complex systems which are difficult to model, and our ability to predict responses to global climate change is limited. Therefore, a complex study of ecosystems that combines long-term monitoring, climate manipulation experiments, and modelling is essential to mitigating, minimizing, and ameliorating the effects of global climate change on ecosystems. In this book, we present our current knowledge of climate change scenarios at global and regional scales (chapters 1–3), their potential impacts on terrestrial, and in particular forest, grassland, and agricultural, ecosystems as well as advanced experimental approaches to investigating these impacts (chapters 4, 5, and 17). In particular, we present the results of monitoring studies and manipulation experiments docu- menting the effects of light (chapters 4, 6, and 9), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (chapters 7 and 8), drought (chapters 10 and 11), temperature (Chapter 12), ozone (Chapter 13), and acidity (Chapter 14) on the physiology, growth, and health status of plants and ecosystems. The final chapters of the book then deal with the impacts of climate change on biodiversity (chapters 15 and 16) and land-use changes (chap- ters 17 and 18), including changes in ecosystem services provided by ecosystems (Chapter 18). The book’s chapters thus cover areas of atmospheric, environmental, and social sciences. We believe this book will be valuable to all those studying climatology, plant physiology, agriculture, forestry, ecology, and other related disciplines particularly from the perspective of ongoing global climate change. In closing, we would like to extend our special thanks to the reviewers Irena Marková (Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic), Katarína Střelcová (University of Technology in Zvolen, Slovakia), and Tatiana Kluvánková (Slovak University of Technology & Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia) for their valuable critical comments which have helped us to improve all of the chapters presented in this book. Otmar Urban, Karel Klem (editors) 7 Chapter 1 Climate change and future scenarios Alexander Ač1, Lenka Krupková2, Michal V. Marek1 1Laboratory of Plant Ecological Physiology, Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 4a, CZ-60300 Brno, Czech Republic 2 Department of Matters and Energy Fluxes, Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 4a, CZ-60300 Brno, Czech Republic 1. INTRODUCTION In the past, Earth’s climate underwent large climatic changes as a result of only natural factors. During the past several hundred thousand years, climate variability was driven largely by changes in orbital forc- ing, which resulted in long periods of colder climate, or ice ages, interrupted by shorter periods of warmer climate, or interglacials. This regular pattern, wherein interglacials were repeating each ca 120,000 years, was explained by the Milankovitch theory of orbital cycles (Milankovitch 1941). Other natural factors which can substantially alter the energy balance of the global atmosphere over shorter periods of time in- clude volcanic eruptions (producing aerosols), changes in solar activity, and cosmic rays. The onset of the last interglacial period, known as the Holocene, about 11,000 years ago, during which time global temperature oscillated by not more than 1°C (Marcott et al. 2013), enabled humans to estab- lish agriculture and their first highly organized civilizations. At the beginning of Industrial Revolution, however, which is defined mainly by an exponential rise in human population, energy consumption, and mineral and other resource use, the world entered what many scientists call today the Anthropocene (Crutzen 2002). The use of fossil fuels over the last ca 250 years has led to a rapid increase in atmospheric –1 –1 CO2 concentration ([CO2]) from about 280 µmol mol in 1850 to more than 400 µmol mol today. In the past, CO2 as a greenhouse gas acted as a feedback during climatic oscillations and enhanced both warming and cooling of the atmosphere (Scheffer et al. 2002). Consequently, rising [CO2] together with concentra- tions of such other greenhouse gases as CH4 and N2O are now dominant drivers of global warming, which is manifested as global climate change (GCC) (IPCC 2013). [CO2] was last as high as it is currently 15 to 10 million years ago (Tripati et al. 2009), and it is widely recognized that ongoing and expected unmitigated GCC will bring significant and often disruptive and irreversible impacts to natural ecosystems as well as human-made socio-economic systems (IPCC 2014a). 8 Fig. 1. Global mean temperatures during 1880–2014 relative to 1951–1980 as calculated based on measurements from me- teorological stations and ocean areas (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global). The current January– September period is hotter than the previous record in 2014 by about 0.1°C. Updated and adapted from Hansen et al. (2010). 1.1. Observed selected impacts of climate change In many ways, significant impacts of GCC can already be observed. One of the most visible signs