MONTHLY April 2017 CONTENTS 7 25 35 GAME RUSSIAN MEDVEDEV CHANGER MERCENARIES IN SYRIA UNDER FIRE ATTACK IN LONDON SHARPLY 3 ST. PETERSBURG 22 CRITICIZES RUSSIA A NARRATIVE RUSSIAN 4 IN RUINS 25 MERCENARIES IN SYRIA WHERE WILL BEAR’S AIR 5 RUSSIA STRIKE? 26 PROVOCATIONS GAME ELECTORAL 7 CHANGER 27 INTRIGUE SERBIAN DOOMED 8 SLALOM 28 FOR IRAN THE ANNEXATION ON THE POSITION OF KADYROV 10 CAUCASUS IS GETTING CLOSER 30 IS GETTING WEAKER MOLDAVIAN SCORES, RUSSIA IS TEMPTING 11 A RUSSIAN LINK 31 DUTERTE NATIVE MOSCOW FUELS 13 TERRORISTS 32 A CONFLICT IN THE BALKANS A GRU SPY IS SOMEONE 14 IN ESTONIA 34 BEHIND NAVALNY? OIL WAR BETWEEN MEDVEDEV 16 KADYROV AND SECHIN 35 UNDER FIRE YET ANOTHER DISMISSAL, A SHOCK A SHOWCASE 17 FOR THE SYSTEM OF POWER 36 SENTENCE FOR A GENERAL GAS RETREAT FROM A TIE 20 CENTRAL ASIA 38 IN THE HAGUE A COLD WAR 21 IN AFGHANISTAN www.warsawinstitute.org 2 © EPA/ANATOLY MALTSEV PAP/EPA 4 April 2017 ATTACK IN ST. PETERSBURG An explosion that killed 14 people occurred on Monday in a subway car, between two stations. The attack brings Kremlin some profits. t marginalizes the topic of Medvedev’s According to the official interpretation, Icorruption as well as the strong explosion enemies of the regime, allegedly supported of public anti-regime emotions, surprising by western secret services, want to destabilize for the observers and for the authorities Russia and to weaken Putin before the themselves, manifested in the recent wave of presidential elections, scheduled for 2018. demonstrations. A year before the elections, Russia’s Investigative Committee said that Putin will use the attack to suppress the the attacker behind the blast was Akbarzhon opposition more ruthlessly. Besides, it cannot Jalilov. He was born in the city of Osh in be excluded that the attack will be used as Kyrgyzstan. His relatives have said that since a playing card in conflicts within the ruling 2011 he’s lived in Russia with his parents. elite, or even within the security apparatus. When the family moved back home, he As usual in such circumstances, Moscow goes stayed in Russia. Identifying him as the back to saying that it is necessary to tighten bomber suggests that the version of a terrorist antiterrorist cooperation with the West, attack mounted by Islamists having some on Russian terms obviously. This is meant connections with the war in Syria will prevail. to weaken the sanctions on Russia for its It should be remembered that thousands of annexation of the Crimea. comers from Central Asia have fought or are still fighting in the ranks of the Islamic State. Kremlin propaganda promptly linked It’s not clear how will the authorities link the the attack with the recent anticorruption assassin with actions taken by the opposition. campaign of the activists such as Navalov Eventually, they may force the thesis that the and with the ensuing street demonstrations. attack wouldn’t have happened if in recent www.warsawinstitute.org 3 weeks the law enforcement authorities didn’t Jihadists connected with the war in Syria and have to focus on the “subversive” activities with the Islamic State. The said social contract against the regime. amounts to the following deal: the government ensures security and in exchange the society As expected, soon after the attack the gives up a part of its freedom. With every new authorities have imposed some new more notorious attack, Russians have less and less stringent regulations, thus strengthening of this freedom but still – as we can see – they control of security services over the society. are not protected from terrorism. And they Putin sticks to the political agenda conceived will never be fully protected, since the goal of already in 1999, assuming that the foundation Putin is not to protect his fellow countrymen. for a social contract of a kind is the fight Rather, he plays with the terrorist threat against terrorism. First, the target were to tighten the grip of the regime and to Chechens, then, more broadly, the North strengthen his mandate each time when it Caucasian Islamists, and more recently – the begins to weaken. © STRINGER PAP_EPA 5 April 2017 A NARRATIVE IN RUINS At least 86 people have died in a chemical attack of 4 April on the rebel-hold town of Khan Sheikhoun in the Idlib Governorate in north-western Syria. The casualties include 30 children and 20 women. The attack was most probably launched by Syrian or Russian aircrafts. The Assad regime denies the charges, same as Russia, which propagates a thesis that the tragedy happened in result of an air strike hitting a rebel depot full of chemical munitions. However, the US administration rejects such explanation. www.warsawinstitute.org 4 he use of chemical weapons in Syria by as is this case, in Russia. Kremlin’s reasoning is Tthe regime forces, and not for the first simple: either the West will agree to cooperate time, caused a storm in the world of politics, with Moscow on the issue of terrorism and and it can already be said that this torpedoed will give up on other issues (e.g. Ukraine) or any possibilities of even basic cooperation it will not, and then Moscow will have yet between the US and Russia in this conflict. another argument to criticize the West. The Washington will go back to its harsh rhetoric use of chemical weapons immediately after against Assad, even though recently Trump’s the tragedy in St Petersburg and all its political administration is said not to press so much for consequences is an argument for rejecting the removing the dictator. The attack in Idlib has theory that the attack was a provocation of totally destroyed the narrative that Moscow Russian services. It would make no sense to has been trying to impose for the last few destroy the antiterrorist narrative just after it days, namely that West should tighten its has been created. Or maybe the coordination antiterrorist cooperation with Russia. This has failed and those deciding to use the has been the message from Kremlin after gas against civilians did not take Kremlin’s the metro attack in St Petersburg, which was reasoning into account. The question arises: swiftly linked with the Jihadists, the Islamic did they do this unwittingly or, on the State and Syria. A similar scenario is repeated contrary, intentionally, to harm Putin. after each major Islamist attack in the West or, 6 April 2017 WHERE WILL RUSSIA STRIKE? Ukraine and Georgia alarm that Russia concentrates more and more armed forces at their borders. What’s more, the nature of this concentration expressly suggests Moscow’s offensive intentions. The attack in St Petersburg may lead to recrudescence of Kremlin’s war rhetoric, in line with the old principle that Russian regime tends to export its internal problems. The best way to divert attention from destabilization at home is a “little victorious war” with a much weaker neighbor. This strategy has proven effective thus far. It is sufficient to mention the second Chechen war, the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass, and last but not least the war expedition to Syria. he attack in St Petersburg metro has been popularity of Vladimir Putin as much as T used by the pro-government media to external conflicts, especially the victorious fuel the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Aleksandr ones. Also, an increase has been noticeable Mikhailov, a retired general and former in in the activity of pro-Russian rebels in spokesman for FSB, said to the Moskovsky Donbass who seem to ignore the ceasefire, Komsomolts that Ukrainian nationals might which should have come into effect on 1 April, have some connections with the attack. Also and heavily shell the Ukrainian positions Komsomolskaya Pravda brought accusations as well as the civilians. Ukrainian Deputy addressed at “Ukrainian radicals”. This Minister for Defense, Ivan Rusnak, when rhetoric may be an introduction to the appearing on 5 April before the NATO – escalation of warfare against Ukraine. The Ukraine Commission stated that Russia had conflict with Kiev may become a leitmotiv gathered around 43 thousand soldiers at the before the presidential elections in Russia border with Ukraine: 24 thousand in the to be held next year. Nothing boosts the Crimea, 18 thousand in mainland Russia and www.warsawinstitute.org 5 © EPA/VADIM GRISHANKIN/RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY PAP/EPA 1 thousand in Transnistria. 36 thousand rebels in the case of war. On the other hand, such and 3 thousand Russian soldiers in Donbass systems as Bastion in the Crimea severely should be added to the above numbers. obstruct access to Georgia by sea. The core of the 49th Army (the staff in Stavropol) and However, not only Ukraine feels threatened. the 58th Army (the 9th staff in Vladikavkaz) The recent inclusion of separatist armed are stationed no more than 250 km from the forces in South Ossetia into Russian military Georgian border. Russian 102nd Military structures reminds us about Russia’s military Base in Gyumri in Armenia is situated only potential in the Caucasus. The military 35 km form the Georgian border. All these situation in Georgia is today much weaker military assets are under administration of than it was in 2008. Russian forces are bigger, the Southern Military District, which since better armed, reformed, and have military July 2016, it is under command of General experience gained in Ukraine and Syria. Aleksandr Dvornikov, former chief of Russian Besides, they are deployed much closer to the operations in Syria. strategic positions in Georgia. The town of Gori and the strategic East-West highway are In the current situation the advantage of within the firing range of Russian artillery.