CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS IN THE APPALACHIAN LANDSCAPE CONSERVATION COOPERATIVE REGION: PHASE II RESULTS OF ASSESSMENTS LESLEY SNEDDON HECTOR GALBRAITH DECEMBER 2015 NatureServe is a non-profit organization dedicated to providing scientific knowledge that forms the basis for effective conservation. 1 Citation: Sneddon, L. and H. Galbraith. 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments in the Appalachian LCC Region. NatureServe, Arlington, VA. © NatureServe 2015 This work was made possible with funding from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The viewpoints in this publication are those of NatureServe and may not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Front cover photo: High Allegheny Wetland Ecological System, Monongahela National Forest, 2004 (Elizabeth Byers©) NatureServe 4600 North Fairfax Drive, 7th floor Arlington, VA 22203 www.natureserve.org 2 3 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS IN THE APPALACHIAN LANDSCAPE CONSERVATION COOPERATIVE REGION Lesley Sneddon Hector Galbraith November 2015 4 Acknowledgments Funding for this project was provided by the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative. We would like to extend our thanks to Jean Brennan and Bridgett Costanzo of the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative for their guidance. We would also like to thank the members of the Expert Panel for developing criteria for the selection of species and habitats: Kyle Barrett, Clemson University; John O’Leary, Massachusetts Department of Fish and Wildlife; Hector Galbraith, National Wildlife Federation; Patricia Butler, Michigan Technological University, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science; Robert Cooper, University of Georgia; Kim Hall, The Nature Conservancy, Great Lakes; Healy Hamilton, Marine Conservation Institute (currently of NatureServe), and to the members of the ad-hoc committee to select the species and habitats to be assessed: Jon Ambrose, Georgia Department of Natural Resources; Kyle Barrett, Clemson University; Patricia Butler, Michigan Technological University; and Al Schotz, Alabama Natural Heritage Program. We also thank Mary Harkness and Gwen Kittell of NatureServe for their contributions to the GIS analyses, and to Milo Pyne of Nature Serve, and Bill Wolfe and Jen Cartwright of USGS for their thoughtful review and comment on the habitat sections of an earlier draft of this report. We also extend our sincere thanks to Jeff Corser of the New York Natural Heritage Program for completing significant portions of the CCVI factors. 5 Table of Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... 5 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 8 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 9 List of Appendices .................................................................................................................... 10 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 11 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 14 Climate change in the Appalachian LCC area ..................................................................... 15 Methods ..................................................................................................................................... 16 Addressing the Expert Panel recommendations ................................................................ 16 Compilation and analysis of existing data .......................................................................... 18 Species Assessments .......................................................................................................... 18 Analysis of Existing Habitat Assessments ....................................................................... 26 Criteria for selection of additional species to be assessed ................................................. 30 Criteria for selection of additional habitats to be assessed ............................................... 34 Vulnerability assessment methods – Species ...................................................................... 36 Climate Exposure .............................................................................................................. 38 Sensitivity ........................................................................................................................... 39 Vulnerability assessment methods – habitats .................................................................... 41 Vulnerability model - structure and variables ................................................................ 42 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 45 Analysis of new data - species .............................................................................................. 45 Analysis of new data – habitats ............................................................................................ 58 South Central Interior Small Stream and Riparian (CES202.706) ................................. 58 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 62 Southern Interior Low Plateau Dry-Mesic Oak Forest (CES202.898) ........................... 62 6 Distribution: ...................................................................................................................... 62 Ecology: .............................................................................................................................. 62 Important community determinants: .............................................................................. 63 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 67 Central Interior Highlands Calcareous Glade and Barrens (CES202.691) ..................... 67 Distribution: ...................................................................................................................... 67 Ecology: .............................................................................................................................. 67 Important community determinants: .............................................................................. 68 Model Scores ...................................................................................................................... 68 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 70 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 70 Sources of uncertainty .......................................................................................................... 70 Other factors to consider ...................................................................................................... 71 Limitations of the assessment methods ........................................................................... 71 The role of dispersal .......................................................................................................... 72 Climate exposure index ..................................................................................................... 73 Adaptation and adaptive capacity .................................................................................... 74 Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 74 References ................................................................................................................................. 77 7 List of Figures Figure 1 Subregions defined for analysis, modified from Keys et al. (1995) ........................ 18 Figure 2 Southern Appalachian and Interior Low Plateau study areas in two regional studies: Carroll et al. (2011) (left) and Bruno et al. 201 (right). .............................................. 20 Figure 3 Major watersheds and natural divisions of Illinois (from Walk et al. 2011) ............ 21 Figure 4. Mid-century (2040-2069) projected increase in temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. ................................................................................................................................ 40 Figure 5 Projected mid-century (2040-2069) Hamon moisture metric (Hamon 1961) ....... 40 Figure 6 Range of Southern Interior Low Plateau Dry Mesic Oak Forest ........................... 43 Figure 7 Similar Dry-Mesic forest habitats adjacent to the Southern Interior Low Plateau Dry-Mesic Oak Forest. ............................................................................................................. 64 Figure 8 Landscape condition in and around the Appalachian LCC. Pink indicates poor condition (Comer and Hak 2009) ..........................................................................................