*** This Page Intentionally Left Blank *** Behavioral Analysis for Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Events National Hurricane Program Final Draft Report Prepared for: Federal Emergency Management Agency Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland National Hurricane Program Security and Emergency Preparedness Prepared by: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: National Planning Center of Expertise for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers New Orleans District And Dewberry Stephenson Disaster Management Institute 2835 Brandwine Road, Suite 100 Louisiana State University Atlanta, Georgia 30351 Louisiana Emerging Technology Center 340 E. Parker Street, Suite 366 Baton Rouge, LA 70803 May 2017 *** This Page Intentionally Left Blank *** Behavioral Analysis for Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Events FINAL REPORT – May 2017 Executive Summary The goal of this analysis is to understand previous evacuation behavior and potential evacuation behavior during future hurricanes for the approximate 1.8 million people who reside in southeast Louisiana. To evaluate this behavior, the Stephenson Disaster Management Institute (SDMI) at Louisiana State University (LSU) partnered with LSU’s Public Policy Research Lab to conduct a telephone survey of over 2,600 people in the 13 parishes that comprise southeast Louisiana. The study was conducted between May 2016 and January 2017, then submitted through Dewberry, the United States Army Corps of Engineers, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to the Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness. In August 2016 many of the participating parishes in the study area were severely affected by the historic 1,000 year rain event in the Greater Baton Rouge area. In consideration for those affected, calling in the most severely affected parishes was put on hold immediately after the event and resumed in October 2016. The cooperation rate for the total survey sample is 91%, meaning that of the calls answered by an eligible respondent, nine out of ten resulted in a completed interview. The margin of error for the total sample is 1.9%. Compared to the overall population of the study area, the sample tends to include more women and older persons; and respondents also tend to be better educated, wealthier, and more likely to live in one-unit structure homes than the general population. The sample is representative of the racial makeup of the 13 parish area, but contains slightly fewer respondents of Hispanic origin. The final results were weighted according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey five-year estimates (2011-2015) to improve inference estimates for the entire 13-parish study area. The vast majority of the respondents have experience enduring a hurricane in southeast Louisiana. To assess their experience, each respondent was asked a series of questions about Hurricane Katrina, Gustav and Isaac, which all three made landfall in Louisiana in the last 12 years. A large majority of respondents also have experience with evacuations with 63% having evacuated during Hurricane Katrina, 42% evacuated during Hurricane Gustav, and 19% evacuating during Hurricane Isaac. Out of all respondents, 12% evacuated from all three storms, 26% evacuated from two storms, 33% evacuated from one of the three storms, and 29% did not evacuate from any of the three storms. For respondents who have lived in the same home during all three storms (52% of the entire sample), 13% evacuated from all three storms, 27% evacuated from two storms, 33% evacuated from only one of the storms, and 27% did not evacuate from any of the three storms. As expected based on the volume of evacuees and storm size, the travel time experienced by each respondent correlated to the number of people who evacuated for each hurricane. Total average travel time for Hurricane Katrina was 9.84 hours, while the average travel time was 7.03 hours during Hurricane Gustav, and Hurricane Isaac evacuees spent approximately 4.45 hours traveling. As a whole, the respondents expressed having concern about the impact of a hurricane to their current homes with 82% indicating they were concerned. Interestingly, when asked about their concern regarding flood and wind damage, respondents indicated they were more concerned about wind damage (79%) than flood damage (55%). This perception corresponds to respondents stated confidence in the levee system. Overall, 52% of the total sample indicated they lived within a levee system and of those, 83% 1 Behavioral Analysis for Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Events FINAL REPORT – May 2017 indicated they were either somewhat confident or very confident that the levee system would protect their homes. Respondents were also asked about their intentions on evacuation under two different storm scenarios: 1) a Category 1 or 2 hurricane and 2) a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. Overall, a majority of respondents indicated they would evacuate for a Category 1 or 2 storm (63% stating they are somewhat likely or very likely to evacuate). However, this number increases dramatically to 87% when asked if they would evacuate under a mandatory order from emergency management officials for a Category 1 or 2 storm. When asked their intentions for evacuating during a Category 3 or greater storm, 90% of the respondents stated they would be somewhat likely or very likely to evacuate. Again, if under a mandatory evacuation order, more people would evacuate (94%) and 85% stated they would be very likely to evacuate under a mandatory order from their emergency management officials for a Category 3 or higher storm. These intentions to evacuate were similar across all the three Evacuation Phases in the study area. When comparing intention across the four Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Planning Regions in the study area, residents of Region 1 (Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, and St. Bernard) indicated they were slightly more likely to evacuate across several different scenarios. When comparing these results by demographic information, overall, females and African Americans were more likely to state they would evacuate compared to white males. When asked why they would not evacuate, across the entire sample, storm strength was the biggest factor, such that Category 1 or 2 storms were less likely to provoke evacuation. We assessed just those persons who said they would not likely evacuate for Category 3 or higher storms, and among these respondents, the most common responses were having to stay for work or staying to protect and secure property from storm damages. If a storm was three days away from landfall, 29% of people would evacuate on day 1, 40% would evacuate on day 3, and 25% would wait until just before landfall to evacuate. Respondents were also asked what where they would go in an evacuation. Out of the total sample, over half of respondents stated they would evacuate to a friend or family’s home (51%), while a third would go to a hotel (33%). The remaining respondents would go to a public shelter (6%), someplace else (8%) or they indicated they didn’t know where they would go (3%). These responses match actual evacuation destinations for those who evacuated during Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav. For Hurricane Isaac, a significantly smaller evacuation than Katrina and Gustav, more respondents indicated they ended up at friends and family and a smaller percentage used hotels. Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi were the most common destination states for evacuation. To get to those destinations, 97% of respondents stated they would take their own vehicle if they evacuated. Of those, 48% stated they would take only one vehicle, 36% stated they would take two vehicles, and 14% indicated they would take three vehicles. In addition, 24% of all respondents stated they would also be hauling a boat or trailer. Respondents from Jefferson and Orleans parish were asked if they were aware of their parish’s City Assisted Evacuation Plan. Approximately 55% in each parish stated they were aware of the program. Of those who were aware of the program, 52% in Orleans parish and only 33% in Jefferson parish they knew where their dedicated pick up points were located. The discrepancy between the two parishes may be in part explained by the active campaign in the City of New Orleans to brand each of their pick up points with a noticeable, unique form of art. We also asked respondents if they utilized the City Assisted Evacuation Plan during Hurricane Gustav. Approximately 5% from Jefferson and 10% from Orleans stated 2 Behavioral Analysis for Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Events FINAL REPORT – May 2017 they did. An overwhelming majority of these users (94% in Jefferson and 97% in Orleans) would use the Assisted Evacuation again. A major objective of this study was to investigate support needed for people with access and functional needs in the 13-parish area. Respondents were asked if anyone in their household would have difficulty evacuating (5% indicated yes) and if so, how many households had family members with access or functional needs (slightly less than 3%). Of those with access and functional needs, 31% require oxygen or other medical devices, 31% require a wheelchair, 84% had difficulty walking, 40% had vision constraints and 46% had mental or emotional issues. About 10% of the population indicated that if they were to go to a shelter, at least one household member would need assistance due to access and functional needs. Of those who indicated that public shelter was their first option during evacuation (5%), half of those going to a shelter indicated that someone in their household would need assistance for access and functional needs while at the shelter. Further, the majority of those needing assistance at the shelter would lack a caregiver (60%). The results also indicate that television is still the main source of storm information (preferred by 44% of respondents) followed by radio (16%). The Internet (15%) and via cell phones (including various weather and social apps) (11%) are gaining in prominence.