Physical Environment Jeanne d’Arc Basin / Central Ridge/Flemish Pass Basins Seismic Program for Statoil Canada Prepared for: LGL 388 Kenmount Road St. John’s, NL A1B 4A5 Prepared by: Oceans Limited 85 LeMarchant Road St. John’s, NL A1C 2H1 March 2011 TableofContents 1.0 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Climatology......................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 General Description of Weather Systems....................................................................... 3 2.2 Data Sources................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Wind................................................................................................................................ 6 2.4 Waves............................................................................................................................ 20 2.5 Weather Variables......................................................................................................... 41 2.5.1 Air and Sea Surface Temperature............................................................................. 41 2.5.2 Precipitation .............................................................................................................. 44 2.5.3 Visibility ................................................................................................................... 47 2.6 Tropical Systems........................................................................................................... 49 3.0 Extreme Analysis.............................................................................................................. 54 3.1 Extreme Value Estimates for Winds from the Gumbel Distribution............................ 54 3.2 Extreme Value Estimates for Waves from a Gumbel Distribution............................... 58 3.3 Joint Probability of Extreme wave Heights and Spectral Peak Period ......................... 61 4.0 Physical Oceanography..................................................................................................... 66 4.1 Major Currents in the Study Area................................................................................. 66 4.2 Currents in the Project Area.......................................................................................... 68 4.2.1 Sub-area 1: Orphan Basin ......................................................................................... 70 4.2.2 Sub-area 2: Sackville Spur &Flemish Pass............................................................... 71 4.2.3 Northeast Grand Banks............................................................................................. 79 4.3 Water Mass Structure.................................................................................................... 84 4.4 Water Properties in the Project Area ............................................................................ 99 4.4.1 Sub-area 1 Orphan Basin ........................................................................................ 100 4.4.2 Sub-area 2- Sackville Spur and Flemish Pass......................................................... 106 .4.4.3 Sub-area 3- Northeast Grand Bank........................................................................... 111 4.4.3 Sub-area 3- Northeast Grand Bank............................................................................ 112 5.0 Sea Ice and Icebergs........................................................................................................ 122 5.1 Sea Ice......................................................................................................................... 122 5.2 Icebergs....................................................................................................................... 126 References................................................................................................................................... 132 Appendix 1 Wind Roses and Wind Speed Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 10255 ..................................................................................................................................................... 134 Appendix 2 Wind Roses and Wind Speed Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 11820 ..................................................................................................................................................... 147 Appendix 3 Wave Roses and Wave Height Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 10255........................................................................................................................................... 160 Appendix 4 Wave Roses and Wave Height Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 11820........................................................................................................................................... 173 Appendix 5 Wind Roses and Wind Speed Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 13428 ..................................................................................................................................................... 186 Appendix 6 Wind Roses and Wind Speed Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 14697 ..................................................................................................................................................... 199 Appendix 7 Wave Roses and Wave Height Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 13428........................................................................................................................................... 212 Appendix 8 Wave Roses and Wave Height Frequency Distributions for MSC50 GridPoint 14697 ..................................................................................................................................................... 225 Table of Figures Figure 2.1 Locations of the Climate Data Sources .......................................................................................5 Figure 2.2 Annual Wind Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 10255 located near 46.3°N; 48.4°W. 1954 – 2005..8 Figure 2.3 Annual Wind Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 11280 located 47.1°N; 47.3°W. 1954 – 2005 .........9 Figure 2.4 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wind Speeds for MSC50 Grid Point 10255 located near 46.3°N; 48.4°W. 1954 – 2005.......................................................................................................................9 Figure 2.5 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wind Speeds for MSC50 Grid Point 11280 located near 47.1°N; 47.3°W. 1954 – 2005.....................................................................................................................10 Figure 2.6 Percentage Exceedance of 10 metre wind speed at Grid Point 10255 located near 46.3°N; 48.4°W . 1954 to 2005 ................................................................................................................................11 Figure 2.7 Percentage Exceedance of 10 metre wind speed at Grid Point 11820 located near 47.1°N; 47.3°W . 1954 to 2005 ................................................................................................................................12 Figure 2.8 Annual Wind Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 13428 located near 48.0°N; 46.3°W. 1954 – 200515 Figure 2.9 Annual Wind Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 14697 located near 48.8°N; 46.3°W. 1954 – 200515 Figure 2.10 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wind Speeds for MSC50 Grid Point 13428 located near 48.0°N; 46.3°W. 1954 – 2005.....................................................................................................................16 Figure 2.11 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wind Speeds for MSC50 Grid Point 14697 located near 48.8°N; 46.3°W. 1954 – 2005.....................................................................................................................16 Figure 2.12 Percentage Exceedance of 10 metre wind speed at Grid Point 13428 located near 48.0°N; 46.3°W . 1954 to 2005 ................................................................................................................................18 Figure 2.13 Percentage Exceedance of 10 metre wind speed at Grid Point 14697 located near 48.8°N; 46.3°W. 1954 to 2005.................................................................................................................................19 Figure 2.14 Annual Wave Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 10255 located near 46.3°N; 48.4°W, 1954 to 2005 ....................................................................................................................................................................21 Figure 2.15 Annual Wave Rose for MSC50 Grid Point 11820 located near 47.3°N; 47.3°W, 1954 to 2005 ....................................................................................................................................................................22 Figure 2.16 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wave Height for MSC50 Grid Point 10255 located near 46.3°N; 48.4°W. 1954 to 2005....................................................................................................................22 Figure 2.17 Annual Percentage Frequency of Wave Height for MSC50 Grid Point 11820 located near 47.3°N; 47.3°W. 1954 to 2005....................................................................................................................23 Figure