1 IRAN CASE FILE ٢٠١٨ April CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................ 4 Internal Affair .................................................................................. 6 Political File ...................................................................................... First: The motion to question President Hasan Rouhani: between failure and success ............................................................ 6 Second: Fundamentalists employ surveillance and espionage techniques to spy on reformists ....................................................... 8 The defense and security file .......................................................... 11 First: Iran and combat drones ......................................................... 11 Second: Arab Ahwaz region: Arab protests and popular resentment against racial discrimination policies ............................................ 14 The economic file .......................................................................... 16 First: explanations of the continuous decline of the Iranian currency between urgent crises and historical roots ......................................16 Second: Macroeconomic indicators ...............................................19 RASANAH The Social file ............................................................................... 22 +966112166696 First: Indicators related to addiction and drugs in Iran ....................22 [email protected] Second: overpopulation and its impact on unemployment ............24 Arab affairs ................................................................................... 30 First: Iran and the interactions in the Syrian arenas ....................... 30 Second: Iran and the Yemeni crisis ................................................ 32 International Affair ........................................................................ 44 US-Iran Relations ......................................................................... 44 The nuclear deal is at risk and a strike on Syria carrying a message to Iran ................................................... 44 Russia-Iran Relations .................................................................... 48 www.rasanah-iiis org Conclusion ................................................................................... 53 The materials contained in the report should not be quoted without indicating their sources, and should not be republished without Rasanah’s permission. 4 Iran Case File ,April 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report tracks the most important developments in Iran during April 2018. It presents a detailed description on three key aspects of the Iran case-file: Internal, Arab, and international affairs. Internal Affairs Political This part handles the call for questioning President Hasan Rouhani on the reasons behind the current difficult socio-economic conditions, the government’s failure in removing unemployment, smuggling, and economic recession. Also, discusses the reasons behind the continuity of sanctions on the Banking system in Iran, the devaluation of the Iranian currency and the statements and positions of some officials and Reformist activists on the bugging case raised by the prominent Mu’talifah Party member, Hardliner Hameed Riza Tarqi. Military and Security The report discusses the combat capabilities of Iranian drones and their use in battles in Syria and Yemen. Also, discusses the demonstrations which erupted in most of the cities and districts of the Ahwaz province and the Iranian attempts to whitewash the Arab Character, as well as, the racist practices by the Iranian regime, media and the reaction of the representatives of this province in the Assembly of Experts. Economics This part of the report analyzes the appreciation of the US dollar against Iran’s currency and the performance of most of Iran’s economic sectors and their indicators in April 2018. Social This part of the report handles social issues such as drugs and unemployment in Iran, as well as, their impact on Iran’s social fabric and state policies. 5 Arab Affairs This part of the report discusses the recent developments in Syria including the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons against civilians in the Syrian city of Duma and the Israeli air force strike on the IRGC T-4 military base in Syria. Also, handles the US, French, and British strikes on some Syrian regime sites in Homs and Damascus after it was charged with using chemical weapons against its civilians, along with the impact of these developments on Iran as it is one of the major players in Syria. As for the Iranian interference in Yemen, the report discusses the most important developments on the ground between the legitimate government and the international coalition on the one hand, and the Iranian Houthi proxy militia on the other, especially, the targeting of some prominent Houthi rebel leaders. In addition, the report handles the Houthi launch of Ballistic missiles targeting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the regional and international reaction on the Houthi offenses, and Iran’s relationship to the Houthi’s role in Yemen. International Affairs The US-Iran Relations The report discusses the most important developments in light of President Donald Trump’s threat to withdraw the US from the nuclear pact on May 12. The report also handles the most important US messages conveyed to Iran through the US-led military strike on Syria after accusing the Syrian regime of using chemical weapons against its civilians in the Syrian city of Duma. Russia-Iran Relations The report discusses how strong the Russia-Iran coalition is in Syria in light of the US-led and Israeli strikes on Iranian forces in this country. 6 Iran Case File ,April 2018 INTERNAL AFFAIRS POLITICAL FILE First: The motion to question President Hasan Rouhani: between failure and success 7 Several Iranian lawmakers have proposed to question Iranian President Hasan Rouhani over the country’s economic crisis and the failure of his economic policies. This is a repeated case that began two months ago. During the period in writing this report, the political debate in Iran heated up and the issue of questioning the president became one of the main topics in the Iranian media after the number of deputies supporting the issue of questioning increased, with them being instigated by the depreciation of the Iranian currency against the dollar. According to Article 89 of the Iranian constitution, questioning the president in parliament requires signatures from one third of the 290 deputies in parliament. (1) Motives behind calls to question Rouhani First: Disputes between political trends Some reformist political activists believe that the issue of questioning President Hasan Rouhani in parliament was planned by fundamentalists to undermine him and accuse him of incompetence. The reformists believe the hardliners in the Iranian regime are plotting to pressure the government and weaken its legitimacy by protests in various Iranian cities as one saw at the beginning of this year. Although these protests began in the city of Mashhad with economic demands and slogans against Rouhani, they quickly changed and took another turn not wanted by the fundamentalists. (2) But the representative of the Golpayegan region in the Iranian parliament Ali Bakhtiar believes that plans of questioning President Hasan Rouhani has nothing to do with the conflict witnessed between the different political wings and currents within the Iranian regime. He justified this claim by claiming that the group of deputies who signed the request to question the president includes fundamentalists and reformists. And this group is made up of various parliamentary committees. Second: Deteriorating economic conditions The plunge of the Iranian currency was a direct cause of the call for questioning Rouhani. Some experts attributed the collapse of the currency to the weak supervision of the Central Bank over the financial and credit institutions which the citizens had trusted and deposited their money therein. The Central Bank stood idly by while seeing these violations as if it was not responsible for these institutions, which sparked massive popular discontent. Because the law does not allow them to question the head of the Central bank, it was the duty of parliamentarians to work to demand that the president be questioned until they reach the desired goal, which is to bring about a radical change in the administration of the Central bank so it plays its role to the fullest. The main five points in the issue of questioning Rouhani A number of Iranian lawmakers prepared five questions related to economic issues to present them to Rouhani. 1. What are the reasons for the government’s failure to combat smuggling? 2. Why are the international banking sanctions imposed on Iran still in place more than two years after the signing of the nuclear agreement and despite Tehran’s commitment to all the promises made by the group 5 + 1? 3. What are the factors that led to the government’s failure to reduce unemployment? 4. What are the reasons for the continued economic recession despite the repeated promises made by the government to end this dilemma? (3) 8 Iran Case File, April 2018 5. The last question will be on the current hot issue which is the reasons and motives for the rapid and steady rise in foreign exchange rates. (4) Reasons for delaying the questioning On the reasons for the delay in the questioning of President Hasan Rouhani the representative