Technical Report No. 2 Computer Intelligent Processing Technologies (CIPTs) Tools for Analysing Environmental Data Prepared by: Earth Observation Sciences Ltd Broadmede, Farnham Business Park Farnham, GU9 8QT, UK January 1998 Cover design: Rolf Kuchling, EEA Legal notice The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission or other European Communities institutions. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on the behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int) Cataloguing data can be found a the end of this publication Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1998 ISBN ©EEA, Copenhagen, 1998 All rights reserved, No part of this document or any information appertaining to its content may be used, stored, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including by photocopying, recording, taping, information storage systems, without the prior permission of the European Environmental Agency. Printed in Printed on recycled and chlorine-free bleached paper European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 DK-1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel: +45 33 36 71 00 Fax: +45 33 36 71 99 E-mail: [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..............................................................................................................5 FOREWORD........................................................................................................................6 1. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................7 2. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 9 2.1. Document Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................ 9 2.2. Roadmap............................................................................................................................ 10 2.3. Gathering Information: Intelligent Agents......................................................................... 12 2.4. Gaining Understanding: Visualisation................................................................................ 12 2.5. Data and Trend Analysis: Quantifying Relationships......................................................... 13 2.6. Estimation and Prediction: Neural Networks .................................................................... 13 2.7. Working with Facts and Rules: Expert Systems................................................................. 14 2.8. Making the Best Decisions: Optimisation Tools ................................................................ 15 2.9. Cost of Applying CIPTs...................................................................................................... 15 3. DATA VISUALISATION .................................................................................................. 17 3.1. Capabilities and Limitations...............................................................................................17 3.1.1. Key Capabilities........................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2. Limitations and Likely Evolution – the Authors’ View ................................................. 22 3.2. Representative Visualisation Tools..................................................................................... 24 3.2.1. Microsoft ExcelTM – a spreadsheet visualisation........................................................... 25 3.2.2. IDLTM – a visualisation development environment........................................................ 26 3.2.3. MacSpinTM – a visualisation package............................................................................ 27 3.2.4. Other Products............................................................................................................ 29 3.3. Environmental Applications ............................................................................................... 29 3.4. References and Bibliography............................................................................................. 35 4. DATA AND TREND ANALYSIS ...................................................................................... 38 4.1. Capabilities and Limitations...............................................................................................38 4.1.1. Key Capabilities........................................................................................................... 39 4.1.2. Limitations and Likely Evolution – the Authors’ View ................................................. 43 4.2. Representative Packages ................................................................................................... 44 4.2.1. MinitabTM – a simple statistical package ...................................................................... 44 4.2.2. S-PlusTM – an object-oriented package ........................................................................ 46 4.2.3. SAS® System: an Advanced Suite of Analysis Tools.................................................... 47 4.2.4. Other Products............................................................................................................ 49 4.3. Environmental Applications ............................................................................................... 49 4.4. References and Bibliography............................................................................................. 55 5. NEURAL NETWORKS .................................................................................................... 56 5.1. Capabilities and Limitations...............................................................................................56 5.1.1. Key Capabilities........................................................................................................... 59 5.1.2. Varieties of Neural Networks ...................................................................................... 61 5.1.3. Limitations and Likely Evolution – the Authors’ View ................................................. 63 5.2. Representative Neural Network Tools............................................................................... 63 5.2.1. NeuralWorks PredictTM Professional – PC Excel version .............................................. 64 5.2.2. DataEngineTM _ – a hybrid NN and neuro-fuzzy expert system................................... 65 5.2.3. Other NN Products ..................................................................................................... 67 5.3. Environmental Examples.................................................................................................... 67 5.4. References and Bibliography............................................................................................. 73 6. EXPERT SYSTEMS ......................................................................................................... 75 6.1. Capabilities and Limitations...............................................................................................75 6.1.1. Key Capabilities........................................................................................................... 79 6.1.2. Limitations and Likely Evolution – the Authors’ View ................................................. 80 6.2. Representative Expert System Tools ................................................................................. 81 6.2.1. CLIPSTM – for constructing Crisp AI systems ................................................................ 81 6.2.2. NEUframeTM – a fuzzy expert system tool.................................................................... 83 3 6.2.3. NeticaTM – a Bayesian network tool ..............................................................................86 6.2.4. Other Products ............................................................................................................89 6.3. Environmental Applications ...............................................................................................89 6.4. References and Bibliography .............................................................................................97 7. OPTIMISATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT................................................................... 98 7.1. Capabilities and Limitations ...............................................................................................98 7.1.1. Key Capabilities .........................................................................................................102 7.1.2. Limitations and Likely Evolution – the Authors’ View................................................102 7.2. Representative Tools........................................................................................................102 7.2.1. Excel SolverTM – General-Purpose, Spreadsheet-based Optimiser............................103 7.2.2. What’s Best!TM – Part of a Flexible Solver Suite..........................................................104 7.2.3. @RISK for ExcelTM – Risk Management and Decision Support Tool...........................106 7.2.4. Other Products ..........................................................................................................108