The Taiwan Voter The Taiwan Voter examines the critical role that ethnic and national iden- tities play in politics, illustrated by the case of Taiwan. That country’s elections often raise international tensions, and they have sometimes led to military demonstrations by China, as in the 1995– 96 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Yet no scholarly books have examined the ways in which Taiwan’s voters make their electoral choices in such a dangerous environment. Critiquing the conventional interpretation of politics as an ideological battle between liberals and conservatives, The Taiwan Voter demonstrates that in Taiwan the party system and the voters’ response to it are instead shaped by one powerful determinant of national identity—the China factor. The book also takes up Taiwan’s voter turnout, “pocketbook vot- ing,” and the effects of the new electoral system adopted in 2004. Taiwan’s electoral politics draws international scholarly interest be- cause of the prominence of ethnic and national identification in its politics. Of course, identities matter almost everywhere. In most coun- tries, though, the many tangled strands of competing identities pres- ent a daunting challenge for scholarly analysis. Taiwan, by contrast, is a country where the cleavages are both powerful and limited in number, so that the logic of the interrelationships among issues, partisanship, and identity are particularly clear. In this book, Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang bring together experts on Taiwan to investigate the ways in which social identities, policy views, and partisan preferences intersect and influence each other. These novel findings have wide applicability to other countries, and thus they will be of interest to a broad range of social scientists interested in identity politics. Christopher H. Achen is Professor of Politics and Roger Williams Straus Professor of Social Sciences at Princeton University. T. Y. Wang is Professor of Politics and Government at Illinois State University. NEW COMPARATIVE POLITICS Series Editor Michael Laver, New York University Editorial Board Ken Benoit, Trinity College, Dublin Gary Cox, Stanford University Simon Hix, London School of Economics John Huber, Columbia University Herbert Kitschelt, Duke University G. Bingham Powell, University of Rochester Kaare Strøm, University of California, San Diego George Tsebelis, University of Michigan Leonard Wantchekon, Princeton University The New Comparative Politics series brings together cutting-edge work on social conflict, political economy, and institutional development. Whatever its substantive focus, each book in the series builds on solid theoretical foundations; uses rigorous empirical analysis; and deals with timely, politically relevant questions. Curbing Bailouts: Bank Crises and Democratic Accountability in Comparative Perspective Guillermo Rosas The Madisonian Turn: Political Parties and Parliamentary Democracy in Nordic Europe Edited by Torbjörn Bergman and Kaare Strøm Political Survival of Small Parties in Europe Jae-Jae Spoon Veto Power: Institutional Design in the European Union Jonathan B. Slapin Democracy, Dictatorship, and Term Limits Alexander Baturo Democracy, Electoral Systems, and Judicial Empowerment in Developing Countries Vineeta Yadav and Bumba Mukherjee The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts Edited by Ryan E. Carlin, Matthew M. Singer, and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister The European Union and the Rise of Regionalist Parties Seth K. Jolly Gender Quotas and Democratic Participation: Recruiting Candidates for Elective Offices in Germany Louise K. Davidson-Schmich Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context: Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond Edited by Nathan F. Batto, Chi Huang, Alexander C. Tan, and Gary W. Cox The Taiwan Voter Edited by Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang The Taiwan Voter Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang, editors University of Michigan Press Ann Arbor Revised Pages Copyright © 2017 by Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang All rights reserved This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. Published in the United States of America by the University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of America c Printed on acid- free paper 2020 2019 2018 2017 4 3 2 1 A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Achen, Christopher H., editor. | Wang, Te- Yu, 1957– editor. Title: The Taiwan voter / Christopher H. Achen, T.Y. Wang, editors. Description: Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press, 2017. | Series: New comparative politics | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017011915| ISBN 9780472073535 (hardcover : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780472053537 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780472122899 (e- book) | ISBN 9780472123032 (Open Access) Subjects: LCSH: Voting research— Taiwan | Political participation— Taiwan. | Political parties— Taiwan. | Identity politics— Taiwan. | BISAC: POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Civics & Citizenship. | HISTORY / Asia / Southeast Asia. Classification: LCC JQ1538 .T3523 2017 | DDC 324.951249— dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017011915 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9375036 The Open Access edition was funded by the Top University Project of National Chengchi University, made possible by a grant from Taiwan’s Ministry of Education. Contents Preface vii Chapter 1. The Taiwan Voter: An Introduction 1 Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang Chapter 2. Who Is the Taiwan Voter? 26 Chia- hung Tsai Chapter 3. Changing Boundaries: The Development of the Taiwan Voters’ Identity 45 T. Y. Wang Chapter 4. Parties, Partisans, and Independents in Taiwan 71 Ching- hsin Yu Chapter 5. Issues, Political Cleavages, and Party Competition in Taiwan 98 Shing- yuan Sheng and Hsiao- chuan (Mandy) Liao Chapter 6. Economic Voting in Taiwan: Micro- and Macro- Level Analysis 139 Chia- hung Tsai Chapter 7. Cross- Strait Relations and the Taiwan Voter 158 Alexander C. Tan and Karl Ho Chapter 8. Evaluation of Presidential Candidates’ Personal Traits 170 Hung- chung Wang and Lu- huei Chen Chapter 9. Political Left and Right in Taiwan 198 Yi- ching Hsiao, Su- feng Cheng, and Christopher H. Achen Chapter 10. Electoral System Change and Its Effects on the Party System in Taiwan 223 Chi Huang vi Contents Chapter 11. Political Participation in Taiwan 252 Chung- li Wu with Tzu- ping Liu Chapter 12. Conclusion: The Power of Identity in Taiwan 273 Christopher H. Achen and T. Y. Wang Contributors 293 Index 299 Preface This book began at a conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 24, 2013. The Election Study Center of National Chengchi University hosted all the au- thors for an intense discussion of how a book about the Taiwan voter might be written. (A few contributors were “virtual attendees” via an Internet link.) Preliminary versions of chapters were presented and thoroughly discussed. After additional reviews and revisions, this book was accepted for publica- tion by the University of Michigan Press. The Election Study Center has provided extensive administrative and financial support to this project from the beginning. The book would have been impossible without the research excellence and professional colleague- ship of the members of the Center. Their warm hospitality to each editor on multiple occasions has been a highlight of our professional lives. A great many people and institutions also helped make The Taiwan Voter possible. T. Y. Wang’s research sabbatical was funded by the Chiang Ching- kuo Foundation and Taiwan’s National Science Council (now called the Ministry of Science and Technology). He also received a Summer Faculty Fellowship from Illinois State University to support this project. A grant to Wang from the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy paid for editing and other expenses of preparing the book for publication review. The Open Ac- cess edition was funded by the Top University Project of National Chengchi University, made possible by a grant from Taiwan’s Ministry of Education. Princeton University’s Politics Department and Illinois State University’s Department of Politics and Government also helped with logistical support and research funding. Larry Bartels, during his time as director of Princeton’s Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, hosted a small conference that helped build a foundation for this book. Michele Epstein and Helene Wood provided the viii Preface administrative support to make the conference successful. We thank all three of them. Achen remembers with respect and gratitude his former colleague Tang Tsou of the University of Chicago Political Science Department, now de- ceased, who arranged a first visit to Taiwan. The trip was paid for by Taiwan’s Government Information Office, which was then directed by Dr. Shao Yu- ming. That eye- opening initial encounter with the people of the island led to the professional relationships that have made possible Achen’s participation in this project. The anonymous reviewers for the University of Michigan Press gave us two rounds of thoughtful comments and criticism. The book is much bet- ter for their efforts. Gail Schmitt and Carissa L. Tudor provided editing assistance, and we are in their debt as well. We also thank our