0f TECHNICAL REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH RISKS IN SENEGAL September 2015 This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics for the ATLAS Task Order. This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics for the Climate Change Adaptation, Though Leadership, and Assessments (ATLAS) Task Order No. AID-OAA-I-14-00013, under the Restoring the Environment through Prosperity, Livelihoods, and Conserving Ecosystems (REPLACE) IDIQ. Chemonics Contact: Chris Perine, Chief of Party ([email protected]) Chemonics International Inc. 1717 H Street NW Washington, DC 20006 Cover Photo: A woman practices good mosquito net care and repair, a key component of campaigns in Senegal with NetWorks and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). © 2011 NetWorks Senegal/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH RISKS IN SENEGAL September 2015 Prepared for: United States Agency for International Development Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Prepared by: Fernanda Zermoglio (Chemonics International) Anna Steynor (Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town) Chris Jack (Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town) This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of Chemonics and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. I CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ···································································· IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ·················································································· V ACRONYMS ································································································· VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ·················································································· 1 A. Climate change and variability in Senegal ................................................................... 1 B. Geographic health priorities ........................................................................................ 4 C. Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 5 C.1 Top-tier priorities ......................................................................................................................... 6 C.2 Second-tier priorities ................................................................................................................... 7 I. BACKGROUND ··························································································10 A. Climate change and health risks in senegal .............................................................. 10 B. Purpose of study ....................................................................................................... 14 II. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SENEGAL CLIMATE ·············································16 A. Background ............................................................................................................... 16 B. Mean climate context ................................................................................................ 17 B.1 Rainfall ...................................................................................................................................... 17 B.2 Temperature .............................................................................................................................. 21 C. Regional climate variability and observed changes ................................................... 22 C.1 Rainfall ...................................................................................................................................... 22 C.2 Temperature ............................................................................................................................. 24 C.3 Drivers of regional climate variability ......................................................................................... 25 III. CLIMATE AND LINKS TO HEALTH RISKS ···················································27 A. Climate and health risks ............................................................................................ 27 A.1 Vector-borne diseases .............................................................................................................. 28 A.2 Diarrheal disease and cholera ................................................................................................... 32 A.3 Schistosomiasis ........................................................................................................................ 34 A.4 Meningococcal meningitis ......................................................................................................... 37 A.5 Undernutrition ............................................................................................................................ 39 A.6 Food security and malnutrition .................................................................................................. 40 IV. CLIMATE-LINKED APPROACHES TO HEALTH SYSTEMS STRENGTHENING ···············································································45 A. The health system in senegal .................................................................................... 45 B. Building blocks of a climate-smart health system ...................................................... 47 B.1 Climate-critical component of health systems: .......................................................................... 47 B.2 Components of a resilient health system: ................................................................................. 47 V. FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ·····························································50 A. Uncertainties and limitations ..................................................................................... 51 A.1 Modeling uncertainties .............................................................................................................. 51 A.2 Limitations in simulating the climate in Senegal ........................................................................ 52 B. Future projections of change ..................................................................................... 53 B.1 Temperature .............................................................................................................................. 53 B.2 Rainfall ...................................................................................................................................... 53 B.3 Extreme rainfall ......................................................................................................................... 54 C. Storyline approach .................................................................................................... 57 Climate Change and Health Risks in Senegal II C.1 Moderately warmer and wetter .................................................................................................. 58 C.2 Stronger warming and drying .................................................................................................... 58 VI. INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT ·································································59 A. Existing institutions and strategies to support a climate smart health system ............ 59 B. GOS readiness to adapt to climate change ............................................................... 60 VII. OPTIONS ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ·······································64 A. Options analysis ........................................................................................................ 64 B. Recommendations .................................................................................................... 66 B.1 Information base ....................................................................................................................... 66 B.2 Institutions and staff .................................................................................................................. 67 B.3 Planning mechanisms ............................................................................................................... 68 REFERENCES ······························································································71 Climate Change and Health Risks in Senegal III LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 1: Summary of key climate-related health risks projected for Senegal .............................. 4 Table 2: Priority heath risks in Senegal and their associated climate and non-climate influences .................................................................................................................................................15 Table 3: Lowest and highest wealth quintiles by major region ...................................................41 Table 4: Breastfeeding and IYCF practices in Senegal .............................................................44 Table 5: Prevalence of malnutrition by area of country ..............................................................44 Table 6: Current status and some climate-proofing suggestions for the health system in Senegal .................................................................................................................................................49