Full Report European Space Strategy in a Global Context Report: Title: “ESPI Report 75 - European Space Strategy in a Global Context - Full Report” Published: November 2020 ISSN: 2218-0931 (print) • 2076-6688 (online) Editor and publisher: European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) Schwarzenbergplatz 6 • 1030 Vienna • Austria Phone: +43 1 718 11 18 -0 E-Mail: [email protected] Website: www.espi.or.at Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “ESPI Report 75 - European Space Strategy in a Global Context - Full Report, November 2020. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. 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Design: copylot.at Cover page picture credit: shutterstock, ImageFlow TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Objective and scope of the study ........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Scope and Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 3 2 THE EUROPEAN SPACE STRATEGY: OVERVIEW .................................................................................... 5 2.1 Which European Space Strategy? ....................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Behind the strategy: a unique approach to space…........................................................................... 6 2.3 … reflecting a unique situation worldwide .......................................................................................... 8 3 THE EVOLVING GLOBAL SPACESCAPE ................................................................................................ 11 3.1 A rapidly expanding space sector ..................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 The expansion of actors and activities ........................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 A growing and diversifying space economy… ................................................................................ 15 3.1.3 … driven by a new sectoral dynamic ................................................................................................ 16 3.1.4 The evolving role of public stakeholders ........................................................................................ 19 3.2 A disruptive technological context .................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Change of paradigm in space technology production ................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Integration of broader breakthrough technologies in the space sector ................................... 22 3.2.3 The evolving role of the terrestrial component.............................................................................. 23 3.3 A more challenging operational and geopolitical environment ..................................................... 24 3.3.1 Increasing congestion and risks of collisions and interferences ............................................... 24 3.3.2 Growing geopolitical tensions extending into the space environment ..................................... 26 3.3.3 Ambivalent space governance developments .............................................................................. 31 4 CHALLENGES FOR EUROPE ............................................................................................................... 34 4.1 International challenges to the competitiveness of Europe´s space sector ................................ 34 4.1.1 Competition challenges ..................................................................................................................... 34 4.1.2 Market challenges ............................................................................................................................... 41 4.1.3 Policy challenges ................................................................................................................................. 44 4.2 International challenges to Europe´s autonomy, safety and security ........................................... 53 4.2.1 Safety and sustainability challenges ............................................................................................... 53 4.2.2 Security and stability challenges ...................................................................................................... 58 4.2.3 Autonomy and freedom of action challenges: .............................................................................. 64 4.3 Assessment of risks stemming from the challenges ..................................................................... 68 5 ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES: THE ROLE OF DIPLOMACY ................................................................ 69 5.1 Diplomatic actions to support competitiveness of European industry ......................................... 70 5.1.1 Promote rule-based global competition ......................................................................................... 73 5.1.2 Support European industry accessing foreign markets .............................................................. 74 5.1.3 Secure industrial activities in international cooperative ventures ............................................. 77 5.2 Diplomatic actions to address safety, security and sustainability challenges ............................. 79 5.2.1 Advance multilateral norms creation with a harmonised European approach ....................... 80 5.2.2 Build coalitions of like-minded spacefaring nations ..................................................................... 83 5.2.3 Foster agreements to guarantee security of supply and service delivery ................................ 84 5.3 The bottom line: a more assertive Europe and dedicated policies ................................................ 86 5.3.1 Towards a more assertive Europe in the international arena ..................................................... 86 5.3.2 Towards dedicated space policies .................................................................................................. 88 6 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................... 91 ACKNOWLEDGMENT ................................................................................................................................ 94 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ............................................................................................................................. 95 ABOUT ESPI ........................................................................................................................................... 96 European Space Strategy in a Global Context 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Europe — the member states, the EU, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) — is one of the most experienced actors in the international arena and operates a highly regarded space programme. Through its different constituents, it has mastered a wide array of capabilities and achieved many successes with breakthrough missions and programmes, such as the ESA-led Rosetta or BepiColombo missions, the EU´s Copernicus and Galileo flagship programmes, and world-leading commercial solutions for telecommunications and launch services. Remarkably, all these successes have not been piloted by a single, unified European space strategy, but rather by a tangle of different and inherently contending space strategies. There is an ESA strategy, as defined and approved by the ESA Council at Ministerial level every three to four years; an EU space strategy, which was enacted by the European Commission in 2016 and enriched with the political orientations of the Council and European Parliament, and many national space strategies adopted by the member states of the two organisations. Equally remarkable, there is neither a general coordination mechanism for decision-making, nor a coherent political control on the implementation at pan-European level. Be this as it may, important convergences and a set of common objectives shared across all stakeholders can be derived around the overarching ambition to “promote [Europe’s] position as a leader in space, increase its share on the world space markets, and seize the benefits and opportunities offered by space”. Towards this, a set of common goals and underlying requirements have been consensually identified, namely: ● To maximise the integration of space into European society and economy by increasing the use of space technologies and applications to support public policies, providing effective solutions to the big societal