THE PRESIDENT’S NATIONAL SECURITY TELECOMMUNICATIONS ADVISORY COMMITTEE NSTAC REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT on Communications Resiliency May 6, 2021 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................ES-1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................1 Scoping and Charge.............................................................................................................2 Subcommittee Process ........................................................................................................3 Summary of Report Structure ...............................................................................................3 The Future State of ICT .......................................................................................................4 ICT Vision ...........................................................................................................................4 Wireline Segment ............................................................................................................5 Satellite Segment............................................................................................................6 Wireless 5G/6G ..............................................................................................................7 Public Safety Communications ..........................................................................................8 Key Evolutions in the Power Sector....................................................................................8 Next-Gen IP .....................................................................................................................9 ICT Architectures Transformation ....................................................................................10 ICT Security Transformation ............................................................................................14 Major Technologies and Resources Leveraged ...................................................................16 Software-Defined Networking..............................................................................................16 Quantum Computing, Communications, and Encryption ........................................................16 Artificial Intelligence (AI) .....................................................................................................18 Chipset and Foundry (Resource Issue) ................................................................................18 Potential Resiliency Stressors to the Future Network ..........................................................20 Wide-Scale Electromagnetic Pulse ......................................................................................20 Position, Navigation, and Timing Disruption ..........................................................................21 Long-Term Outage (30+ days) .............................................................................................22 Supply-Chain Based Cyber Attack .......................................................................................23 Non-Dependent Challenges ..............................................................................................24 Evolving Technological Threats ............................................................................................24 Technological Discoveries...................................................................................................25 The Form of the Future Internet: New IP and Its Alternatives..............................................26 Evolutions in Secure Internet Routing ..............................................................................26 Spectrum ......................................................................................................................27 NSTAC Report to the President • Communications Resiliency i Global Market Destabilization ...........................................................................................27 Internet Bifurcation ........................................................................................................27 Supply Chain-Based Global Economy ...............................................................................28 Standards .....................................................................................................................28 Summary of Findings and Analysis of the Future State of ICT ..............................................28 Network Densification and Ubiquitous Connectivity ...............................................................28 Incorporation of the Enterprise Into Shared Risk Planning .....................................................29 Reliance on Cloud-Based Services ......................................................................................30 Secure and Resilient Supply Chains ....................................................................................30 The Broad Impact of Quantum-Based Technologies ..............................................................31 Accelerating Artificial Intelligence Implementation .................................................................32 Standards and Interoperability ............................................................................................32 Resilient and Ubiquitous PNT Services ................................................................................32 Power Remains a Key Dependency ......................................................................................32 ICT Is an Integral Component of National Security ................................................................33 Summary of Actions the Administration Can Take to Support the Future ICT Vision ...............35 Public/Private Planning, Consultation, and Risk Assessments ...............................................35 Changes in Emergency Preparedness Practices/Procedures ..............................................35 Communicating the Resiliency of Underlying Cloud/Edge Environments ..............................35 Impact of Geopolitical Issues .........................................................................................36 Forward Assessment of ICT/Power Dependencies ............................................................36 Continued Reliance on Fuel: Stockpile Issue ....................................................................36 Next Generation IP Strategy ...........................................................................................36 Recommendations to Support Deployment of Future Networks ...........................................37 Trusted Semiconductor Supply Chain ...............................................................................37 Spectrum Policies ..........................................................................................................37 Fiber Deployment ..........................................................................................................37 National Timing Architecture ...........................................................................................37 Recommendations to Support Adoption of Key Technologies ...............................................38 The U.S. Government Can Foster Enterprise Adoption of Next-Gen Technologies .................38 Cybersecurity Considerations for U.S. Government Networks .............................................38 Standards .....................................................................................................................38 Post Quantum Cryptography ...........................................................................................39 Incorporating AI .............................................................................................................39 NSTAC Report to the President • Communications Resiliency ii Utilizing Testbeds to Enable Mastery of Quantum and AI Technologies .................................40 Testbeds: Quantum-Based Technologies .........................................................................40 Testbeds: AI ..................................................................................................................40 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................40 Appendix A. Subcommittee Membership ...........................................................................A-1 Appendix B. Acronyms .....................................................................................................B-1 Appendix C. Definitions ....................................................................................................C-1 Appendix D. Bibliography ................................................................................................ D-1 List of Figures Figure 1. Enablers of Technology Convergence .......................................................................5 Figure 2. Advanced Antenna Systems (AAS) – Beamforming and MIMO Examples .....................7 NSTAC Report to the President • Communications Resiliency iii Executive Summary Nearly a decade has passed since the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) last reviewed the Nation’s communications resiliency posture. In its 2011 NSTAC Report to the President on Communications Resiliency