Negotiating Climates: The Politics of Climate Change and the Formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1979-1992 A thesis submitted to the University of Manchester for the degree of PhD in the Faculty of Life Sciences 2014 David George Hirst Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Declaration ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Copyright Statement ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................ 7 Key Figures in Thesis .................................................................................................................................... 8 List of Acronyms............................................................................................................................................ 10 Chapter 1 – Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 11 1. Aims of thesis .................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Historiography of Climate Change ............................................................................................ 17 2.1 Numerical Weather Prediction .......................................................................................... 17 2.2 Funding Research ................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Internationalisation and Climate Change ...................................................................... 21 2.4 Climate Models and the Politics of Climate Change .................................................... 22 2.5 The Genesis of the IPCC ........................................................................................................ 26 3. Theoretical Frameworks of Science-Policy: Assessing Global Environmental Assessments ............................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1 Bridging the gap: linking science and policy ................................................................ 32 3.2 Governance of expertise and the geopolitics of knowledge .................................... 38 4. Research Methods and Sources .................................................................................................. 40 4.1 Archival Material .................................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Oral History............................................................................................................................... 43 4.3 Bert Bolin’s Personal History of the IPCC ....................................................................... 47 4.4 Transnational History ........................................................................................................... 48 5. Outline of Thesis Chapters ............................................................................................................... 49 Chapter 2 – Manufacturing Consensus around Climate Change: Early Forays into Policy, 1979-1987 ....................................................................................................................................................... 54 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 54 2. The Emergence of Science-Policy Advocates, 1980-1985 ................................................. 59 2.1 Villach-I: More Money, More Research ........................................................................... 61 2.2 SCOPE 29: More Science, More Certainty? ..................................................................... 66 2.3 Villach-II: Making a political argument with science ................................................. 70 3. ‘Scientized’ decision-making: Climate Solutions modelled on Ozone .......................... 74 5.1 The Ozone Consensus for Climate Change ..................................................................... 75 5.2 The Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG).................................................... 77 6. Beyond Villach-II: Science, Policy and Science-advocacy .................................................. 82 1 6.1 Villach/Bellagio: Unrestrained advocates setting the agenda ............................... 83 6.2 Toronto Conference: Scientists and Politicians mix .................................................. 88 6.3 Scientific Assessments: Who is speaking for the Climate? ....................................... 90 7. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 93 Chapter 3 – Negotiating an ‘Intergovernmental Assessment Mechanism’............................... 97 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 97 2. A New Mechanism to Assess the Issue .................................................................................. 100 3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: from concept to reality .................... 110 3.1 The World Meteorological Congress, 1987: An International Mandate .......... 111 3.2 Continuing US influence: Architects of the IPCC ....................................................... 114 4. Negotiating the Terms of Reference: Responsibilities, Participation and Working Arrangements ......................................................................................................................................... 122 5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 128 Chapter 4 – Balancing Scientific Credibility and Political Legitimacy: The First Assessment Cycle, 1988-1990 ....................................................................................................................................... 130 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 130 2. The First Session of the IPCC, November 1988: A Comprehensive Assessment .... 134 2.1 IPCC Structures and Personnel ....................................................................................... 135 2.2 IPCC Schedule: Ensuring Salient Timing ...................................................................... 143 3. “An Authoritative Statement of the Views of the International Scientific Community” ............................................................................................................................................. 145 4. Reception of the Report: Political Legitimacy and Scientific Credibility ................. 159 5. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 167 6. Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 170 Chapter 5 – The Framework Convention on Climate Change: the intertwining science and politics of climate change, 1988-1992 ............................................................................................... 171 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 171 2. Establishing the Primacy of the IPCC at Noordwijk ......................................................... 175 3. The IPCC to the INC: Negotiating a Climate Convention .................................................. 182 4. Re-thinking the IPCC: From the INC to the ‘Earth Summit’ ............................................ 193 4.1 INC not the IPCC .................................................................................................................... 197 4.2 Increased developing country participation ............................................................. 198 4.3 Sceptical White House advisers ...................................................................................... 200 5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 204 Chapter 6 – Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 207 1. Science as Politics ......................................................................................................................... 209 2 2. The Geopolitics of Knowledge Production: Assessing Global Environmental Assessments ............................................................................................................................................ 214 3. Scope for Future Research