Range-wide Population and Habitat Viability Assessment for the Dhole, Cuon alpinus Khao Yai National Park, Thailand, February 2019 Final Report For further information about this plan and its implementation, please contact: Nucharin Songsasen; email: [email protected] Workshop organized by: IUCN SSC Canid Specialist Group, IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group, Kasetsart University, and Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Workshop financial support provided by: Columbus Zoo and Aquarium, Copenhagen Zoo, Minnesota Zoo, San Diego Zoo Global, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, and Tierpark Berlin VORTEX and PMx modeling software provided under a CreativeCommons Attribution-NoDerivatives International License, courtesy of the Species Conservation Toolkit Initiative (https://scti.tools). Cover photos courtesy of Nucharin Songsasen and Phanakorn Kroaomklang A collaboration between IUCN SSC Canid and Conservation Planning Specialist Groups IUCN encourages meetings, workshops and other fora for the consideration and analysis of issues related to conservation, and believes that reports of these meetings are most useful when broadly disseminated. The opinions and views expressed by the authors may not necessarily reflect the formal policies of IUCN, its Commissions, its Secretariat or its members. The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Copyright: © 2020 IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group Recommended citation: Kao, J., N. Songsasen, K. Ferraz and K. Traylor-Holzer (Eds.). 2020. Range-wide Population and Habitat Viability Assessment for the Dhole, Cuon alpinus. IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group, Apple Valley, MN, USA. A PDF of Range-wide Population and Habitat Viability Assessment for the Dhole, Cuon alpinus final workshop report can be downloaded at: www.cpsg.org and www.canids.org. CONTRIBUTORS The following specialists from 14 countries contributed to the contents of this report through the PHVA workshop discussions and analyses: Bhaskar Acharya Yututhum Meklin Ventie Angela Chhimi Namgyal Naris Bhumpakphan Sandy Nurvianto Tan Cheng Cheng Girish Punjabi Chelsea Davis Hasan Arif Rahman Tan Poai Ean Shahriar Caesar Rahman Katia Ferraz Ryan Rodrigues Pallavi Ghaskadbi Patrick Roux Martin Gilbert Nay Myo Shwe Brij Kishor Gupta Nucharin Songsasen Bilal Habib Arjun Srivathsa Iding Haidir Robert Steinmetz Linnea Havmøller Ronglarp Sukmasuang Rasmus Worsøe Havmøller Phuntsho Thinley Jim Khao Jidapha Thongbantum Ambika Prasad Khatiwada Wanlaya Tipkantha Kyran Kunkel Hariawan Wahyudi Sheng Li Yadong Xue Fitty Machmudah CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 PART I: Population and Habitat Viability Assessment and Modeling Workshop Process ....................................................................................................................... 4 Status Review and Threat Analysis .............................................................................................. 6 Issue-Based Working Group Reports ......................................................................................... 11 Working Group 1: Scientific Data ........................................................................................ 11 Working Group 2: Habitat and Prey Loss ............................................................................ 14 Working Group 3. Human-Dhole Conflict ........................................................................... 17 Working Group 4: Dogs and Disease Transmission ............................................................. 22 Population Viability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 27 Species Distribution Modelling ................................................................................................... 43 Range-wide distribution models .......................................................................................... 43 Country-specific models ....................................................................................................... 52 PART II. Recommended Strategies and Actions Global recommendations .......................................................................................................... 76 Country-specific recommendations .......................................................................................... 81 Bangladesh .......................................................................................................................... 81 Bhutan ................................................................................................................................. 85 China ................................................................................................................................... 91 India ..................................................................................................................................... 95 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................... 102 Malaysia ............................................................................................................................ 108 Myanmar ........................................................................................................................... 113 Nepal ................................................................................................................................. 117 Thailand ............................................................................................................................. 123 PART III. Appendices Appendix I. Literated Cited .................................................................................................. 128 Appendix II. Workshop Participants and Invitees ................................................................. 130 Appendix III. Ex-situ Population Discussion ........................................................................... 132 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VISION: By 2040, dholes are secured and increasing under science-based Priorities: monitoring in viable, connected meta- Build a collaborative network among those populations across their historical range. involved in dhole research and conservation; Societies and governments will have recognized their ecological, economic and Compile and share current data on dholes to cultural importance, and stakeholders produce an updated range map and status will ensure co-existence between dholes review for dholes; and people. Identify key issues/threats concerning the conservation of dholes; BACKGROUND Identify knowledge gaps and research Dhole, Cuon alpinus (Pallas, 1811), also known priorities for both ex situ and in situ dhole as Asiatic wild dog, Indian wild dog, whistling populations; dog, red dog, and mountain wolf, is a canid Identify ways in which ex situ activities can native to Central, South and Southeast Asia. contribute to dhole conservation; Identify goals and priority actions to initiate Dholes have disappeared from most of their a dhole long-range conservation plan; and historical range. Populations are still declining Produce a draft workshop report, including in most areas due to several main threats, a plan for implementation. which include depletion of prey base, habitat loss, persecution due to livestock predation, disease transmission from domestic dogs, and possibly interspecific competition. Most if not all current subpopulations of dholes are relatively small and isolated, and often exhibit severe fluctuations in numbers. Dholes warrant listing as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. 2019 PHVA WORKSHOP In February 2019, over 28 dhole experts from 9 countries gathered in Kasetsart University and Khao Yai National Park, Thailand for 6 days of intensive conservation planning discussion. This Population and Habitat Viability Assessment (PHVA) workshop was hosted by the IUCN SSC Canid Specialist Group’s Dhole Working Group and Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University and was organized in collaboration with IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group. Participants worked together to develop a vision for the future of dholes, to identify and prioritize strategies and actions in different countries to achieving this vision, and to agree on a species distribution model that may help in evaluating the suitability of the landscape and estimate dhole populations and metapopulations. Population viability modelling helped participants to better understand the relative viability of small, fragmented dhole populations under threat. 1 ISSUE-BASED GOALS AND STRATEGIES A threat analysis by workshop participants identified four main categories of threats to dhole populations across the species’ range: habitat and prey loss; human-dhole conflict; domestic dogs and disease transmission; and insufficient scientific knowledge. Cross-country working groups discussed these issues and identified goals and potential strategies to address them. POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS (PVA) Scientific data and expert opinion were used to develop a dhole population viability model. Our limited understanding