University of North Florida UNF Digital Commons UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations Student Scholarship 2021 Estimating a range of flow atesr resulting from extreme storm events within the Wekiva River watershed through statistical testing and modeling Wesley K. Koning University of North Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd Part of the Civil Engineering Commons, Hydraulic Engineering Commons, and the Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Suggested Citation Koning, Wesley K., "Estimating a range of flow atesr resulting from extreme storm events within the Wekiva River watershed through statistical testing and modeling" (2021). UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 1014. https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd/1014 This Master's Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at UNF Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of UNF Digital Commons. For more information, please contact Digital Projects. © 2021 All Rights Reserved ESTIMATING A RANGE OF FLOW RATES RESULTING FROM EXTREME STORM EVENTS WITHIN THE WEKIVA RIVER WATERSHED THROUGH STATISTICAL METHODS AND MODELING by Wesley K. Koning A thesis submitted to the School of Engineering in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering UNIVERSITY OF NORTH FLORIDA COLLEGE OF COMPUTING, ENGINEERING, AND CONSTRUCTION 2021 Copyright © 2020 by Wesley K. Koning All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part in any form requires the prior written consent of Wesley K. Koning or a designated representative. The thesis “Estimating a range of flow rates resulting from extreme storm events within the Wekiva River watershed through statistical testing and modeling” submitted by Wesley K. Koning in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering has been Approved by the thesis committee: (Date) Redacted _______________________________________________ _________________4/14/2021 Christopher J. Brown, Ph.D., P.E. Thesis Advisor and Committee Chairperson Redacted _____________________________ ________4/14/2021_________ Çiğdem Akan, Ph.D., Committee Member Redacted _________________________ _________________4/14/2021 Patrick Kreidl, Ph.D., Committee Member Accepted for the School of Engineering: Redacted 4-15-2021 _____________________ _________________ Osama Jadaan, Ph.D. Director of the School of Engineering Accepted for the University of North Florida: _______________________________________________ _________________ John Kantner Ph.D. Dean of the Graduate School 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge those who have supported me through the journey of my research and accompanying thesis. A special thank you goes to my advisor, Dr. Christopher Brown. Your endless guidance, effort, and communication have proven to be an asset throughout this research. I am very appreciative to have worked alongside you and be given a wealth of knowledge throughout the years. I would like to thank Dr. Akan and Dr. Kreidl for being essential members of my thesis committee. In this past year they have challenged me to thoroughly understand the research I am pursuing, leaving no room for variables unanswered for. This has helped me become more confident in the work that is being done. I would like to thank the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) for their wealth of information as well as the modeling simulation they provided for this research. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) also provided crucial flow data given by their instrumentation. Each played an important part in composing the preliminary data that ultimately led to the flood flow estimates for this work I would like to give a special thank you to my family and fiancée for their continued support through this journey. Their motivation and support during this process has given me the drive to continue my best work. Little would be made possible without such great family. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................................... 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF: ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 TABLES ................................................................................................................................................... 9 FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................ 11 Abstract. ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2. Literature Review ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Model Simulated Estimates .............................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Statistical Flood Estimation .............................................................................................................. 16 2.3 Existing Flood Estimates .................................................................................................................. 18 2.3.1 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) .................................................................. 18 2.3.2 St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) ......................................................... 19 Chapter 3. History of the Wekiva Sub-Basin .............................................................................................. 20 3.1 The Wekiva Sub-Basin ..................................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Watercourses ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Springs & Tributaries ........................................................................................................................ 22 Chapter 4. Hydrologic Background ............................................................................................................ 24 4.1 Wekiva River near Sanford (USGS Gage 02235000)....................................................................... 25 5 4.2 Little Wekiva River at Springs Landing (SJRWMD Gage 09502132) ............................................. 26 4.3 Black Water Creek near Debary (SJRWMD Gage 30143084) ......................................................... 26 Chapter 5. Manipulating HSPF Models ...................................................................................................... 28 5.1 Course of Action ............................................................................................................................... 28 5.2 Data Sources ..................................................................................................................................... 28 5.3 Land-use ............................................................................................................................................ 29 5.4 Target Date........................................................................................................................................ 29 5.5 Adjusting Rainfall ............................................................................................................................. 30 5.6 Output Processing ............................................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 6. Developing Statistical Tests ...................................................................................................... 33 6.1 Data Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 33 6.1.1 Data Sets from Synthetic ........................................................................................................... 33 6.1.2 Data Sets from USGS Gages ..................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Log-Pearson Type III ........................................................................................................................ 34 6.3 Power Law ........................................................................................................................................ 36 6.3.1 Solver ......................................................................................................................................... 36 6.3.2 Linear Regression ...................................................................................................................... 37 6.4 Theil-Sen ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Chapter 7. Results ......................................................................................................................................