An Assessment of Cyclone Mitigation and Management Policies of Bangladesh: A Focus on Early Warning Systems By Tiffany Bisson A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Masters of Natural Resource Management Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Environment, Earth and Resources Natural Resources Institute University of Manitoba Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2 Copyright © 2012 by Tiffany Bisson THE UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES ***** COPYRIGHT PERMISSION A Thesis/Practicum submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Manitoba in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the degree of Masters of Natural Resource Management © 2012 by Tiffany Bisson Permission has been granted to the Library of the University of Manitoba to lend or sell copies of this thesis/practicum, to the National Library of Canada to microfilm this thesis and to lend or sell copies of the film, and to University Microfilms Inc. to publish an abstract of this thesis/practicum. This reproduction or copy of this thesis has been made available by authority of the copyright owner solely for the purpose of private study and research, and may only be reproduced and copied as permitted by copyright laws or with express written authorization from the copyright owner. Abstract This study was conducted in Dhaka and Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh to examine grass-roots cyclone vulnerability and the governmental policies and cross-scale linkages that address this vulnerability. After conducting surveys with local villagers, it was determined that while the majority of people understand the cyclone is impending, the options available to them for safe evacuation are limited, as there are not enough cyclone shelters, not all shelters are maintained and in usable condition. Also, budget restraints and improper relief distribution impair the country’s ability to mitigate cyclone vulnerability. It was realized that the NGOs act not only as a liaison between villagers and government, but they are the major stakeholder in local level capacity building. It was recommended that additional NGOs form a presence in the Cox’s Bazar to alleviate the pressure felt by the Cyclone Preparedness Program and Red Crescent, but also to increase the ability of local villagers to work with disaster management stakeholders that are not government representatives. i Acknowledgements I would firstly like to thank my Advisor, Dr. C. Emdad Haque, and the members of my committee, Professor Thomas Henley, Dr. John Hanesiak and Dr. Mizan Khan for the support and guidance they provided me with. I would also like to thank the Canadian International Development Agency for the funding I received in order to complete my research in Bangladesh. I would like to thank Dalia, Tammy and Shannon, NRI support staff, for patiently answering all of my questions and providing invaluable support no only during my research and thesis, but during my entire duration at the Natural Resources Institute. I would also like to thank Andrew Dunlop for his academic guidance and friendship. I would like to thank my family for all the love, understanding, support and patience during my Masters degree. I would like to thank my parents for believing in me, for letting me go to Bangladesh and supporting me in getting there and for every one of the Skype calls they made and received during my research. I would like to thank my brother, Kurt, for always being there when I needed to talk, as well as for showing up in Paris and giving me the greatest surprise of my life. I would like thank my Gramma, Elsie Steinke, for teaching me that one voice can make a difference and challenges are a part of like, but that shouldn’t stand in the way of your dreams. I would also like to thank my Godparents, Auntie Heather and Uncle Bob, for their prayers and support. I would like to thank God for keeping me safe during my travels, for giving me the strength to carry one and for providing my life with the opportunity to continue my education and for providing me with the means to do so. During my Bangladesh I was introduced to the Islam religion and I am sure that God and Alla worked together to keep me safe. I would like to thank all people who participated in my research. I was very fortunate to have many willing participants and my time in the villages will stay with me forever. I would also like to thank everyone who welcomed me into their homes, as well as every NGO and government official who made time to talk to me and help me with my research. I would like to thank all my friends for everything they have done for me over the past years. I would like to thank Jason Kelly and Crista Gladstone for their academic advice and encouragement during my Masters. I would like to Sayed for all his help while I was in Bangladesh. I would like to thank Cuyler Barsalou for being an amazing friend and a great study buddy. I would like to thank all my friends who have borrowed me a computer, fed me or watched my dogs so I could get my worked done, showed genuine interest in my research and believed in me. I am truly blessed with many people in my life who have supported me through my Masters and you are greatly appreciated. I would like to thank the friends I made in Bangladesh that made my research possible. Chitta, Shuman, Shaheed and Salauddin were great to work with and will forever be remembered. ii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgement .............................................................................................................. ii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... iv List of Photos .......................................................................................................................v List of Appendices ............................................................................................................. vi Glossary of Acronyms ...................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1:Introduction .....................................................................................................1 1.1 Preamble ............................................................................................................1 1.2 Background ........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 Cyclone vulnerability in Bangladesh ........................................................2 1.2.2 Risk reduction in Bangladesh ...................................................................3 1.2.3 Recent disaster management initiatives ....................................................4 1.3 Problem Statement .............................................................................................6 1.4 Research Purpose and Objectives ......................................................................7 1.5 Summary of Methods .........................................................................................8 1.6 Organization of Study ........................................................................................9 1.7 Contribution to Knowledge..............................................................................10 1.8 Study Limitations .............................................................................................10 Chapter 2: Literature Review .........................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................12 2.2 Cyclone Formation in Bangladesh ...................................................................12 2.3 Vulnerability ....................................................................................................15 2.4 Reducing Vulnerability ....................................................................................18 2.5 Governmental Issues in Policy and Warning System Creation .......................20 2.6 Government Disaster Infrastructure .................................................................21 2.7 Early Warning Systems....................................................................................25 Chapter 3: Methods .........................................................................................................29 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................29 3.2 Surveys .............................................................................................................31 3.3 Content Analysis ..............................................................................................32 Chapter 4: Vulnerability of Local Communities to Cyclones ......................................35 4.1 Demographic Characteristics of the Population ..............................................35 4.2 A Historical Account of Cyclones in the Study Area ......................................40 4.3 The Impacts of the 1991 Cyclone on Local Communities ..............................45 4.4 Reception of Cyclone Early Warnings ............................................................47