On Thin Ice? Perspectives on Arctic Security Edited by DuNcan Depledge and P. Whitney Lackenbauer ON THIN ICE? Perspectives on Arctic Security © The authors, 2021 North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) / Réseau sur la défense et la sécurité nord-américanes et arctiques (RDSNAA) c/o School for the Study of Canada Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9J 7B8 All rights reserved. LIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION On Thin Ice? Perspectives on Arctic Security / Edited by Duncan Depledge and P. Whitney Lackenbauer (NAADSN Engage Series no. 5 / RDSNAA série d’engage no. 5) Published in print and electronic formats. ISBN: 978-1-989811-13-9 (e-book) 978-1-989811-14-6 (print) 1. Arctic regions—Strategic aspects. 2. Arctic regions—Defence and Security. 3. Arctic security. I. Depledge, Duncan, editor. II. Lackenbauer, P. Whitney, editor. Title: On Thin Ice? Perspectives on Arctic Security. III. Series: NAADSN Engage Series / RDSNAA série d’engage; no. 5 Designer and layout: P. Whitney Lackenbauer Cover design: Jennifer Arthur-Lackenbauer Cover image: Duncan Depledge Copy editor: Corah Hodgson Distributed by the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) Distribué par le Réseau sur la défense et la sécurité nord-américanes et arctiques (RDSNAA) ON THIN ICE? Perspectives on Arctic Security Edited by Duncan Depledge and P. Whitney Lackenbauer Table of Contents Foreword by Lt. Col. Adam Rutherford ........................................................ i Preface by Duncan Depledge .................................................................... Introduction by Duncan Depledge and P. Whitney Lackenbauer ................. List of Acronyms ................................................................................ 1. Comprehensive Security in the Arctic: Beyond “Arctic Exceptionalism” by Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv and Kara K. Hodgson ...................................... 1 2. A Governance and Risk Inventory for a Changing Arctic by Elana Wilson Rowe, Ulf Sverdrup, Karsten Friis, Geir Hønneland, and Mike Sfraga ......... 12 3. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Differentiating Between Different Security Dynamics in the Arctic by Andreas Østhagen ............................... 23 4. Threats Through, To, and In the Arctic: A Canadian Perspective by P. Whitney Lackenbauer ............................................................................ 35 5. The Evolving Arctic Security Environment by Rob Huebert .................. 48 6. Soft Security Responses to Hard Power Competition by Ernie Regehr... 55 7. Beyond the North Warning System by Andrea Charron ....................... 64 8. Mitigating Russia’s Military Posture in the European Arctic: Towards a High North Hard Security Architecture by Mathieu Boulègue .................. 71 9. Coercive Cooperation: Grey-Zone Strategy in the Arctic by Elizabeth Buchanan ................................................................................................. 78 10. The Sino-Russian Partnership in the Arctic by Andrew Foxall ............. 82 11. Open Skies in the Arctic: Challenges and Opportunities by Katarina Kertysova and Alexander Graef .................................................................. 91 12. US Arctic Deepwater Port: Value-Added Capabilities in Support of National Security by Troy Bouffard and Edward Soto .............................. 107 13. Reinvigorating Old Friendships: Why the US Should Pursue an Engagement Strategy in Greenland by Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen .............. 116 14. Changing Strategic Geography in the GIUK Gap by Rebecca Pincus . 126 15. The UK’s Arctic Defence Strategy and the Wider North by Duncan Depledge, Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, and James Rogers ................................. 135 16. The Great Illusion Revisited: The Future of the European Union’s Arctic Engagement by Andreas Raspotnik ................................................ 143 17. Recent Changes to Swedish Security Policy − An Arctic Turn? by Niklas Eklund ................................................................................................... 152 18. Iceland and Arctic Security: US Dependency and the Search for an Arctic Identity by Pia Elísabeth Hansson and Guðbjörg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir .............................................................................................................. 162 19. Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Arctic Security by Wilfrid Greaves 172 Afterword: Time for a New Arctic Security Architecture by Mathieu Boulègue and Duncan Depledge ............................................................... 184 Further Reading..................................................................................... 187 Contributors .......................................................................................... 202 Index ..................................................................................................... 202 On Thin Ice? i Foreword As a tactical and strategic military practitioner with some 25 years of experience in operating in the Arctic, I can say confidently that much in the region has changed. Yet for many decision-makers, be they from a security or political perspective, the Arctic has only recently gained relevance. For much of the post-Cold War era, the region was a political and military dead end. However, with Russia resurgent, China rising, and the international rules-based order weakening, all set against the backdrop of climate-induced change, geopolitical uncertainty in the region now abounds. Yet, above all, the Arctic remains an environment into which forces cannot easily be pitched, a factor that is, on occasion, overlooked by not only politicians, but also the military. As a consequence, assessments in and of the Arctic, both in times of peace and of tension, must utilize foresight and inform decision-makers as coherently and concisely as possible. I have had the pleasure of working with Duncan Depledge and Professor Whitney Lackenbauer over several years, and have always welcomed and enjoyed their counsel and exchange of clarity and wisdom on Arctic security. This volume perfectly illustrates the importance of giving both politicians and practitioners access to the latest research in a concise and consumable format. Since my initial deployment to the region in 1994, to serving as branch head of the Royal Marines Mountain Leaders specialization conducting regular Arctic deployments, through to writing futures reports on the Arctic as a strategic analyst for NATO, the importance of the speed of relevance, clarity of material (cutting through the sheer volume of information), and a concise methodology to ease decision-making has never diminished. In a world where information load and cadence are rapidly on the increase, narrowing the scope and range of perspectives affords decision-makers, at every level, the best opportunity to out- pace and out-think the competition. Nowhere more than NATO is the synchronization of political and military decision-making more acute. Given the transformation taking place in the Arctic due to the impacts of climate change, and the significant bearing on the Alliance’s freedom to operate over the coming decades, assistance in improving foresight and generating a concise but well-informed narrative, as this volume provides, is rarely seen, but always welcomed. Lt Col Adam Rutherford – Royal Marines Strategic Foresight Branch, NATO March 2021 ii On Thin Ice? On Thin Ice? iii Preface In December 2016, the United Kingdom’s House of Commons Defence Committee decided to examine the security and defence implications of environmental and geopolitical transformation in the Arctic. The inquiry was led by a sub-committee chaired by James Gray, MP, a figure who has been, and continues to be, a major driving force of British parliamentary engagement with polar affairs. It was my great honour to be invited to serve as the specialist adviser to the sub-committee throughout the inquiry, which lasted until 2018. This was a period in which I learnt a great deal about how to speak plainly and help parliamentarians quickly get up to speed with the latest ideas and debates emerging from academic research. During the inquiry, the sub-committee received 29 submissions of written evidence, which offered a range of perspectives from academics and other expert researchers. I was greatly impressed by the quality of what we received. So too was Professor Whitney Lackenbauer, who had been watching the inquiry unfold from Canada. Quite by chance, Whitney and I found ourselves discussing all this in the margins of a workshop in Oslo in 2019, at which point Whitney proposed an idea: why don’t we use the Committee model of collecting written evidence to curate a new volume showcasing – in an accessible format – what a distinguished group of experts believe are the key issues, trends, and developments in the Arctic that need to be the focus of attention? We could then put this volume in the hands of any parliamentarians, ministers, civil servants, diplomats, and military personnel looking for a rapid introduction to some of the very latest thinking on security and defence in the Arctic, from a wide range of international perspectives. This idea has inspired us to bring together this volume and make it freely available. The title, On Thin Ice? Perspectives on Arctic Security, is our nod to the House of Commons Defence Committee’s own report, On Thin Ice: UK Defence in the Arctic, for the role it played in setting us off on this endeavour.