Forty-First Annual World Affairs Institute November 18, 2011 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Briefing Paper The World Affairs Institute is a Community Service Project of the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh and Rotary International World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh 2640 BNY Mellon Center • 500 Grant Street • Pittsburgh, PA 15219-2510 412-281-7970 • fax 412-281-1795 email: [email protected] • www.worldpittsburgh.org © 2011 World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh The Arab Awakening: A Call for Change in the Middle East and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy CONTENTS Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...…..1 A Survey of American Interests in the Middle East Since 1945…………………………………………………………………….2 Underlying Causes of Revolt..……………..……….……………………………………………………….………………………….4 Revolts Across the Arab Region………….……..…………………………………………………………………….……………….6 Tunisia.…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………....6 Egypt..…………………………………………………………………………...……………………………………..…….....6 Yemen...…………………………………………………………………………..……………………………..……………...7 Saudi Arabia...…………………………………………………………..……………………………..……………………….8 Key Articles from The New York Times ………………………………………………………..…………………………..10 Spotlights on the Impact of Social Media and Women Protestors on the Arab Awakening……..………………..…………...12 American Foreign Policy Consequences……………………………………………………………………………..…...………...14 Map from The Economist May 10, 2011. Introduction The Middle East, locally dubbed “the mother of the world” for its contributions to global culture and history, today exhibits conflict in virtually every state. In North Africa, autocrats have been deposed by youth-driven social movements in Tunisia and Egypt, while in the Gulf countries monarchs have clung to power, making rapid changes to social programs to meet citizen demands. Syria and Libya are experiencing widespread civil unrest. In the far reaches of the region, chaos plagues Yemen as the state moves towards civil war, while Saudi Arabia weighs this conflict on its shared border and manages domestic protests. In Bahrain, the government has assaulted and arrested citizens, as well as physicians who treated protestors and government loyalists alike, all in an effort to keep the monarchy in power. These extremely diverse conflicts in 2011 led to a significant spike in both regional violence and revolutionary fever, and taken together have been labeled the Arab Awakening . These uprisings have also been referred to as the Arab Spring, the Arab Rebellions, and the Arab Revolutions. The Arab Awakening undoubtedly changes inter-Arab diplomacy, but also challenges long-standing actors such as the United States to reconsider its role in the Arab world. For American interests, a difficult balancing act between supporting liberalization and upholding traditional alliances means that any political or military action must be carefully recalculated. Developing a widespread policy is almost impossible due to the diversity of countries in the region and rapidly changing political and social situations. The U.S. will have to carefully consider its next moves in the Middle East. In the process, it will have to reassess relationships that previously were crafted to maintain regional stability. It is very difficult today to determine what states will look like in the near future, and even more challenging to anticipate where they will be in the coming decades. This background paper will discuss American interests in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), diagnose the underlying causes of the Arab Awakening revolts, depict the events as they occurred, and assess American policy moving forward. Sidebars will address a range of issues related to the Arab Awakening and related events. A note to readers: This paper focuses on developments which are rapidly unfolding. The authors encourage readers to utilize the resources in the back of this text and the Institute blog at www.WAIpittsburgh.wordpress.com for the most up- to-date information about the region. Arab countries find themselves weighed down by long-serving regimes and high rates of unemployment. With the ouster of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Egyptians were emboldened and Freedom of the were able to force Hosni Mubarak from office. With many of these leaders press is often tied to serving decades at a time, with growing young populations and tough other forms of economic conditions, the entire region is experiencing political upheaval. freedom and democracy in a country. Every year the watchdog group Freedom House produces a report of 195 countries, and ranks them on a scale of zero to 100, with zero as the most free and 100 as the least . © 2011 W ORLD A FFAIRS C OUNCIL OF P ITTSBURGH 1 discuss oil sales to the U.S., creating a standing place in A Survey of American Interests American foreign policy for oil producing states. in the Middle East Since 1945 Henceforth, a special economic and political association came to exist between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, as well Since 1945, American foreign policy in the Middle East as with members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum has focused on three key areas: acquiring oil from the Exporting Countries (OAPEC.) Persian Gulf states; securing the state of Israel; and limiting anti-Western forces and sentiments throughout While actively developing relationships in the Arab world, the region, including post-September 11, 2001 pursuits to the U.S. also supported the 1948 creation of the state of combat terrorism. The actors targeted by these policies Israel, thereby fundamentally positioning itself between have changed over time – from combating Soviet Arab and Israeli interests. The Zionist founders of Israel influences in the region to the present struggle against Al- sought a secure, self-determining, and sacred homeland Qaeda and Islamic militantism – yet, these three central based on religious writings in the Torah , the Jewish holy issues continue to frame American strategy in the region. book, as well as based upon their collective experience as victims of genocide during the Holocaust. In the Arab At the end of World War I, Western influences permeated world, resentment over American support for a Jewish the Middle East as the concept of the “nation-state” was nation-state abounded, particularly because the idea of abandoned in favor of French and British spheres of an Islamic nation-state has been demonized in the West, imperial influence, later known as the mandate period. and due to the great number of Palestinians who fled from This precedent shaped U.S. policy, particularly in the Israel to the Arab states in 1948 and in the years after. post-World War II period, as the United States joined European nations in injecting national interests into The 1950s and 1960s marked a change colonial status, regional dialogues determining state independence and as European direct rule dwindled, to independent Arab sovereignty. states. During the Cold War period, the Soviet sphere of influence – particularly the relationship between the American foreign policy interests in the Middle East have Soviet Union and Iran – prompted American concerns been directly related to the region’s significant about competition for Middle East oil supplies. As the concentration of oil reserves, which account for between U.S.-Soviet rivalry played out in the developing world, two-thirds and three-fourths of the world’s shares. The American foreign policy interests focused dually on Soviet beginning of America’s so-called “oil addiction” dates to containment and balancing European regional interests. this period, during which the Allied powers focused on As Arab leaders realized that they could benefit from obtaining access to the region’s petroleum. At the close of politically manipulating Western and Soviet actors against World War II in 1945, President Franklin Roosevelt one another, inter-Arab tensions heated up as states personally met with Saudi Arabian King Abdul Aziz to received weapons from both parties. Soviet-supplied pan- Arabist leader former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser established a bolder stance against Israel. This position agitated European, American, and Israeli interests, and eventually led to the 1956 Suez Crisis. One may think that the Suez Crisis, in addition to numerous wars fought between the Arabs and Israelis, would disrupt oil sales to the U.S. However, the largest disruption to the U.S. oil supply came later, serving as a political statement by members of the OAPEC. In 1973, as a reaction to American support for Israel’s position in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem, OAPEC oil producers cut production by five percent, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait later making more significant cuts. Soon after, nearly all members of the larger Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including countries in Latin America, refused to sell oil to the U.S. until it ceased its support of Israel. However, the mutually beneficial nature of the OAPEC-American relationship was exemplified when American support for Israel continued, and as of January 1974, the OAPEC countries had returned to their original production amounts, later increasing production an additional 10% as relations normalized. King Saudi Arabian King Abdul Aziz (left) and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt meet in 1979 was a significant milestone for American 1945. Photo courtesy of the National Archives. involvement in the region due to a series of political 2 © 2011 W ORLD A FFAIRS C OUNCIL OF P ITTSBURGH developments which took place that year. These developments