Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 12-2001 Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks Robert S. Renfro II Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Communication Commons, and the Operational Research Commons Recommended Citation Renfro, Robert S. II, "Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks" (2001). Theses and Dissertations. 4358. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/4358 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NETWORKS DISSERTATION Robert S. Renfro, II, Captain, USAF AFIT/DS/ENS/01-03 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. Report Documentation Page Report Date Report Type Dates Covered (from... to) 13 Dec 2001 Final Aug 1998 - Dec 2001 Title and Subtitle Contract Number Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Project Number Capt Robert S. Renfro, USAF Task Number Work Unit Number Performing Organization Name(s) and Address(es) Performing Organization Report Number Air Force Institute of Technology Graduate School of AFIT/DS/ENS/01-03 Engineering and Management (AFIT/EN) 2950 P Street, Bldg 640 Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7765 Sponsoring/Monitoring Agency Name(s) and Sponsor/Monitor’s Acronym(s) Address(es) NAIC/GTI ATTN: Mr. Mickey Wilkinson 4180 Sponsor/Monitor’s Report Number(s) Watson Way Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433 Distribution/Availability Statement Approved for public release, distribution unlimited Supplementary Notes Abstract This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. This research advances the science of Operations Research and its application to broad classes of problems dealing with social networks. Application areas span academic, private sector, and government analysis. Sample cases are used in this research from the private sector and government. Specifically, influencing foreign government decision making is demonstrated for the case of Iran. Counter-terrosim applications are demonstrated for a sample case using Usama Bin Ladin. The contributions of this research serve private and public sector users. Subject Terms Radar, Pulse Compression, Radar Waveforms, Nonlinear Signal Processing, Radar Signal Processing, Radar Coding Report Classification Classification of this page unclassified unclassified Classification of Abstract Limitation of Abstract unclassified UU Number of Pages 146 The views expressed in this dissertation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. AFIT/DS/ENS/01-03 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NETWORKS DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty Graduate School of Engineering and Management Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Robert S. Renfro, II, B.S., M.S., PGIP Captain, USAF December 2001 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT/DS/ENS/01-03 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NETWORKS Robert S. Renfro, II, B.S., M.S., PGIP Captain, USAF Approved: Date _______________________________________ __________________ Richard F. Deckro (Chairman) _______________________________________ __________________ William E. Wiesel (Dean’s Representative) _______________________________________ __________________ James W. Chrissis (Member) _______________________________________ __________________ Ernest P. Smith (Member) _______________________________________ __________________ Stephen P. Chambal (Member) Accepted: _____________________________________________ ________________ Robert A. Calico, Jr. Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Acknowledgements This dissertation would not have been possible without the diligent efforts, sound advice, professional judgment, and forward thinking of my advisor, Dr. Dick Deckro. Dr. Deckro has my thanks and sincere respect for his three years of support in making this dissertation a reality. My committee, Dr. Jim Chrissis, Captain Steve Chambal, and Lieutenant Colonel Price Smith, will always have my thanks and respect for their commitment to my success. My gratitude also extends to Dr. Jack Kloeber who contributed to the early development of my research topic. My research sponsors, the National Security Agency (NSA) and National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC), made this research possible through direct funding, access to resources, and operational insight. My sponsors have insured that this research provides significant and immediate service to our great nation. Special thanks go to Mr. Mickey Wilkinson of NAIC. For the last three years, Mickey has made himself available for weekly meetings and made sure that senior leaders and other agencies were constantly aware of my research. My greatest thanks go to my wife. She has put up with long hours and often single-handedly made sure our family life flourished. The support of my wife and family are the lynch pins of my success and my greatest joy. I have grown personally and learned much about life, dedication, and service from my advisor, committee, sponsors, and family. Academic success, service to my country, and the love of my family are gifts for which I am eternally grateful. Rob Renfro iv Table of Contents Page Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................iv List of Figures ...................................................................................................................vii List of Tables......................................................................................................................ix Abstract ...............................................................................................................................x Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................. 8 Personality Assessment................................................................................................... 8 Sociology and Social Network Analysis (SNA) ........................................................... 20 Explaining Informal Structure in Organizations ........................................................... 29 Organizational Development (OD) ............................................................................... 30 Reflexive Control and Semiotics................................................................................... 32 Moving Away from Single Context Graphs ................................................................. 34 Small World Theory...................................................................................................... 35 Combining Groups and Individuals .............................................................................. 37 Graph Theoretic Framework ......................................................................................... 40 Optimization for Network Problems............................................................................. 45 Decision Analysis.......................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 3. Overview of Methodology.............................................................................. 66 Mapping Social Network Analysis to Operations Research ......................................... 66 Measurement Theory Implementation Problems .......................................................... 70 Optimization and Network Model Implementation Problems ...................................... 72 Graph Theory Implementation Problems...................................................................... 74 Identification of Measurement System ......................................................................... 75 Modeling Individual Behavior ......................................................................................75 Measuring Social Closeness.......................................................................................... 76 Multiple Context Model................................................................................................76 Multiple-Criteria Model ................................................................................................ 77 Conducting Analysis