Geography of the Arab Spring An analysis of the Syrian revolutionary process from a spatial point of view By Teun van de Ven Bachel or thesi s Geogr af i e, pl anol ogi e en milieu (GPM) School of Management Radboud University Nijmegen June 2013 Geography of the Arab Spring An analysis of the Syrian revolutionary process from a spatial point of view By Teun van de Ven Bachelorthesis Geografi e, planologie en milieu (GPM) School of Management Radboud University Nijmegen June 2013 Thesis supervisor: Olivier T. Kramsch Studentnumber: 4065751 Table of contents Su m m ar y ……………………………………………………………………………….II Introduction……………………………………………………………………………1 Met hod…………………………………………………………………………………4 Chapter One - Theor et i cal f r amew or k………………………………………………….6 1.1. Revolution………………………………………………………………………………….…...6 1.1.1. Definition………………………………………………………………………………………6 1.1.2. Preconditions and causalities…………………………………………………………………...8 1.1.3. The revolutionary process…………………………………………………………………….10 1.2. Uprising……………………………………………………………………………………….12 1.3. Revolutionary wave……………………………………………………………………………12 1.4. Geography and revolutions……………………………………………………………………13 1.4.1.Demography, Urbanisation and Economy…………………………………………………….13 1.4. 2. Ur bani sat i on…………………………………………………………………………………...14 1.4.3.Economy……………………………………………………………………………………....15 1.4.4.Food shortage……………………………………………………………………………….....15 1.4.5.Culture…………………………………………………………………………………….......16 1.4.6.Focus…………………………………………………………………………………………..16 Chapter Two - The Syrian revolutionary process……………………………………..17 2.1. Foundation…………………………………………………………………………………….17 2.2. Institutionalisation……………………………………………………………………………..19 2.3. Launch…………………………………………………………………………………………21 2.4. Fluctuation…………………………………………………………………………………….25 2.5. Interception……………………………………………………………………………………26 Chapt er Thr ee – Anal ysi s……………………………………………………………...27 3.1. Definition……………………………………………………………………………………...27 3.2. Relative deprivation and social mobility……………………………………………………….28 3.3. Culture………………………………………………………………………………………...29 3.4. Demographical, Economic and Urban aspects…………………………………………………30 Chapter Four – Conclusion…………………………………………………………37 Ref er ences…………………………………………………………………………….40 I Summary The ai m of t hi s thesi s i s t o r educe t he gap t hat exi sts betw een t he t heor et i cal and empi r i cal know l edge about revolutionary processes, the Arab Spring in particular. The research consists of a case study of the r evolution in Syria. The country is suffering from a civil war which is the result of the violent approach the Syrian regime used to quell the popular uprisings of early 2011. The case is approached from a geographical point of view. The reason for this choi ce i s t hat st udi es regarding the Arab Spring or revolutions in general are highly politically oriented. The spatial orientation as used in this thesis results in both interesting and useful insights in the Syrian casestudy, but also in the Arab Sp r i n g as a whole and of revolutions in general. The study has been a desk research, as field research in Syria at this point in time is dangerous and al so r equi r es mor e t i me and money t han w as avai l abl e f or t hi s par t i cul ar r esear ch. The dat a used t o anal yze t he case has been col l ect ed f r om a sel ect i on of the t housands of scientific papers and books, newspaper- and background articles and policy documents t hat ar e w i del y avai l abl e. I n or der t o pr esent an i mage as objective as possible, data from various sour ces i s used. The method used in order to analyze the Syrian revolutionary process is loosely based on several methods of qualitative research, such as grounded theory and cr i t i cal di scour se anal ysi s. The theoretical framework that is used in this thesis i n or der to understand the empirical findings in a better way is based on scientific literature from various disciplines, such as geography, poli ti cal sci ences, sociology and history. The understanding of the concept “ revolution” is mainly based on two works of Krejci (1983 and 1994), which are both studies of the theoretical background of revolutionary pr ocesses i n gener al . Based on hi s theor y t he r esear ched case has been cl assi f i ed as bei ng a ver ti cal r evol ut i on f r om below, meaning that it is a revolution that originated from the lower parts of society and was directed agai nst t he nat i onal r egi me. The revolutionary process can be divided up into several phases. Krejci (1994) designed such a model. A slightly altered version of this model is used in order t o st udy t he case chosen for this thesis. The phases range from the “ foundation” to the “ consolidation overthrow” . How ever , f or t he anal ysi s onl y t he f i r st f i ve phases of t he model ( w hi ch consi st s of ei ght phases i n t ot al ) have been used, as t he r esear ched revolutionary process still finds i tsel f i n phase f i ve. In the search for universal geographical causes of revolutions again writings about revolutions in gener al have been used, but al so t heor i es r egar di ng space and urbanity. Thi s collecti on of li t er at ur e w as completed with literature about the Arab Spring. Based on earlier studies a web of geographical causes of the Syrian revolutionary process has been designed. The main focus lies on the interconnected spheres of demography, economy and the urban sphere. This trinity is complemented with the factors “ culture” and “ food shortage” . For a better understanding of the urban sphere in particular theories of Henri Lefebvre (1996) are used. Accor di ng t o Lef ebvr e t he “ ur ban soci et y” i s the end phase of a developing society, which all societies should strive for as all people hold a “ right to the city” . That means the right to make use of II “ the city” to fulfil ones need for qualitative growth of his personal life, by “ enabling the full and complete usage of these moments and places” (Lefebvre, 1991, p. 179). In order to reach the phase of “ urban soci et y” t he hel p of t he gover nment i s necessar y, because i t i s consi der ed essent i al that t he spat i al pl anni ng of society is “ oriented towards social needs” (Lefebvre, 1991, 178). When the road to the “ urban society” is blocked by an unwilling government the only way to reach it is by revolution, which Lefebvre called an urban revolution. In order to analyze the Syrian revolutionary process properly the empirical findings have to be compared to the theoretical framework. To do this the second chapter consists of a “ story” of the course of the revolution in Syria, based on the data collected from various sources. The story is built up according to the ei ght phase model as descr i bed i n the t heor et i cal f r amew or k. Feelings of dissatisfaction increased among the Syrian population as a result of the i nt er connect ed spheres of demography, economy and urban life. The high fertility of Arab women has left the entire r egion stuck with a youth bulge of people between the ages of 15 and 24 (Mirkin, 2013, p. 7). There was not enough work to provide every job seeker with a job. This shortage was caused by an already poor economy that r ecent l y w or sened because of t he gl obal economic crisis. The country simply had to deal with a surplus of young people looking for work. This resulted in high youth unemployment, which caused a wave of urbanisation as the jobless youngsters moved to the cities in the hope of a better future. The si t uat i on w as w or sened by i ncr easi ng br ead pr i ces, as a r esul t of a gl obal w heat scar ci t y. How ever , at t hi s poi nt t he f eel i ngs of i nj ust i ce had not yet gr ow n l ar ge enough to make the peopl e f ace t hei r r epr essi ve gover nment . That moment came w hen t he peopl e of other countries in the region opposed their regimes and cl ai med t hei r f r eedom, the process that has been named the Arab Spring. The situation of those people i ncr eased as di ct at or s w er e expel l ed. The peopl e of Syr i a now f el t r el at i ve depr i vat i on, t hey w er e w or se of than the people in neighbouring countries. These gener al f eel i ngs of i nj ust i ce w er e expr essed by the peopl e through mass demonstrations in various Syrian cities. In a short time institutions were formed, such as the Local Coordination Committees. By institutionalizing the revolutionary process the organisation and t her eby the ef f ect i veness i ncr eased. Security forces originally responded with non-lethal riot control. After a short time they turned to lethal riot control, after which they t ur ned to t he besi egi ng of ent i r e ci t i es and t ow ns. During this process unar med pr ot ests t ur ned i nto ar med r ebel l i on.