Emerging Risks Report 2018 Understanding Risk A new lease of life Understanding the risks of synthetic biology 02 Disclaimer Key Contacts This report has been co-produced by Lloyd's and Drs Trevor Maynard John Heap and Karen Polizzi of Imperial College London Head of Innovation for general information purposes only. While care has [email protected] been taken in gathering the data and preparing the report, Lloyd's and the authors do not make any For general enquiries about this report and Lloyd’s representations or warranties as to its accuracy or work on innovation, please contact completeness and expressly excludes to the maximum [email protected] extent permitted by law all those that might otherwise be implied. About the authors Lloyd's and the authors accept no responsibility or liability John Heap PhD, BSc, is a Senior Lecturer in the for any loss or damage of any nature occasioned to any Department of Life Sciences and Karen Polizzi PhD, person as a result of acting or refraining from acting as a BSc, is a Reader in the Department of Chemical result of, or in reliance on, any statement, fact, figure or Engineering at Imperial College London. Both are expression of opinion or belief contained in this report. members of the Imperial College Centre for Synthetic This report does not constitute advice of any kind. Biology. They each have more than 10 years' experience in biotechnology and synthetic biology research, lead © Lloyd’s 2018 research teams working in these areas, and teach these All rights reserved subjects to undergraduate and postgraduate students. About Lloyd’s Lucy Stanbrough MSc, BSc, is an Associate in the Innovation team at Lloyd’s. Subjects covered in recent Lloyd's is the world's specialist insurance and years include: cyber scenarios; future city resilience; and reinsurance market. Under our globally trusted name, we disaster risk finance. Prior to joining Lloyd’s, she worked act as the market's custodian. Backed by diverse global for over 10 years as a natural hazards and GIS capital and excellent financial ratings, Lloyd's works with consultant, alongside working at the UCL Hazard Centre. a global network to grow the insured world –building Lucy has contributed to a number of books on the use of resilience of local communities and strengthening global technology and online systems pre, during, and post- economic growth. disaster. She maintains an interest in the integration of scientific knowledge to business applications, and With expertise earned over centuries, Lloyd's is the connecting knowledge to people, and people to foundation of the insurance industry and the future of it. knowledge. Led by expert underwriters and brokers who cover more than 200 territories, the Lloyd’s market develops the Citation essential, complex and critical insurance needed to underwrite human progress. Please cite this report as: About The Imperial College Centre for Synthetic Polizzi KM, Stanbrough L and Heap JT (2018) A new lease of life: Understanding the risks of synthetic biology. Biology An emerging risks report published by Lloyd’s of London. The Imperial College Centre for Synthetic Biology (IC- CSynB) is a multidisciplinary, research centre involving Acknowledgements 36 research groups across the Faculties of Natural The following people were consulted or commented on Sciences, Medicine, and Engineering at Imperial College earlier drafts of the report; we would like to thank them all London. for their contributions: Lloyd’s project team − Dr Trevor Maynard, Head of Innovation − Dr Keith Smith, Innovation team − Lucy Stanbrough, Innovation team − Flemmich Webb, Speech and Studies − Linda Miller, Global Marketing A new lease of life – Understanding the risks of synthetic biology 03 Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Current applications ........................................................................................................................................................ 14 2.1 Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Nutrition ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Manufacturing ............................................................................................................................................................ 18 2.4 Energy ....................................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.5 Consumer products ................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.6 Services enabling research and development .......................................................................................................... 21 2.7 Future developments on the horizon ......................................................................................................................... 22 3. Stakeholders driving development .................................................................................................................................. 25 3.1 Academic research .................................................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Commercial research and development ................................................................................................................... 27 2.3 DIYBio: Do-it-yourself synthetic biology .................................................................................................................... 28 4. Risk pathways ................................................................................................................................................................. 31 4.1 Bioerror ...................................................................................................................................................................... 32 4.2 Bioterror ..................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.3 Unintended consequences ........................................................................................................................................ 36 5. Regulation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 43 6. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................................... 46 7. Key conclusions of the 2009 report ................................................................................................................................ 48 References .......................................................................................................................................................................... 52 A new lease of life – Understanding the risks of synthetic biology Executive summary 04 Executive summary Despite the huge number and diversity of naturally- Developments since 2009 occurring living things in the world today, they represent only a tiny fraction of the organisms that could The market has continued to grow, with estimates of theoretically exist. Over the past few years scientists $1.1bn in 2010 (OECD, 2011), $5.2bn in 2015 (Singh, have been trying to develop altered or wholly new 2014), to forecasts of $38.7bn by 2020 (Sumant, 2016). organisms using biotechnology for a range of A number of new established commercial entities have applications, including disease prevention and treatment, emerged out of the start-up and spinout companies that fuel, chemical production, crop resistance and even were formed off the back of early research discoveries. space exploration. This first wave of companies have seen a significant increase in capital support. Industry research estimated In recent years this work has increasingly been referred that equity funding to private synthetic biology companies to as synthetic biology, although there is a number of topped $1bn in 2016, with some start-ups seeing funding different definitions in common usage. Lloyd’s first rounds of more than $100m (CB Insights, 2017). explored the topic in 2009 in its report: ‘Synthetic biology: influencing development’. This 2009 report concluded The university synthetic biology research sector also that: “Synthetic biology is in its infancy and the first remains strong and government investment in academic commercial applications are likely to appear as research has continued, although there are signs this is incremental to traditional genetic modification… starting to plateau. Governments are also investing in Depending on the pace of development we might expect regional centres of excellence. to see fully commercialised outputs from