D R A F T Comment on the plan in its entirety or review the hazards sections that you are most familiar with. In an effort to efficiently collect and organize comments, please select Comment Form below and complete with your basic contact information, comment(s) and corresponding page number(s). All comments will be reviewed prior to returning the draft document to the consultants for final updates. Comment Form State of Rhode Island Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment August 2016 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Page 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Approval and Implementation 7 Record of Changes 8 Record of Distribution 8 1.0 Introduction 9 1.1 Purpose 9 1.2 2016 HIRA Update 10 2.0 Hazard Identification 11 2.1 Disaster History 15 3.0 Risk Assessment 21 3.1 Ranking Methodology 21 3.2 Composite Hazard Index 23 4.0 Vulnerability Analysis 25 4.1 Facility Analysis 25 5.0 Hazard Profile: Natural Hazards 28 5.1 Severe Winter Weather 28 5.2 Flood 35 5.3 High Winds 56 5.4 Extreme Heat 65 5.5 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 70 5.6 Extreme Cold 80 5.7 Thunderstorms 86 5.8 Dam Failure 92 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Page 2 5.9 Fire 102 5.10 Sea Level Rise 109 5.11 Epidemic 123 5.12 Drought 127 5.13 Earthquake 137 5.14 Tornado 146 6.0 Hazard Profile: Human-Caused Hazards 153 6.1 Cybersecurity Incident 153 6.2 Chemical Incident 156 6.3 Terrorism 160 6.4 Biological Incident 164 6.5 Radiological Incident 167 6.6 Civil Unrest 171 7.0 Hazard Profile: Technological Hazards 175 7.1 Infrastructure Failure 175 8.0 Overall Hazard Results and Summary 182 8.1 Composite Hazard Priorities 182 9.0 Emergency Management Program Elements 188 Appendix 1: Consequence Analysis (CA) 189 Tables Table 1: Record of Changes ..................................................................................................................... 8 Table 2: Record of Distribution ................................................................................................................ 8 Table 3: Hazard Identification and Hazard Groupings ............................................................................. 11 Table 4: Natural Hazard Identification Process ....................................................................................... 12 Table 5: Human-Caused and Technological Hazard Identification Process .............................................. 14 Table 6: Federally Declared Disasters and Emergencies in Rhode Island 1954 – 2015. ............................ 16 Table 7: NCDC Total Number of Events (1993-2016) .............................................................................. 19 Table 8: NCDC Total Property Damages .............................................................................................. 19 Table 9: NCDC Annualized Total Property Damages ............................................................................... 19 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Page 3 Table 10: Likelihood of Hazard Occurrence ............................................................................................ 22 Table 11: Likely Range of Impact ............................................................................................................ 22 Table 12: Probable Hazard Magnitude ................................................................................................... 22 Table 13: Composite Hazard Index ......................................................................................................... 23 Table 14: Datasets included in vulnerability assessment. Source: RIGIS .................................................. 26 Table 15: NESIS Values .......................................................................................................................... 31 Table 16: NCDC Winter Weather Storm Events. Source: NWS NCDC ...................................................... 33 Table 17: Severe Winter Weather Hazard Priority .................................................................................. 34 Table 18: FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas within jurisdictions by flood zone ....................................... 39 Table 19: Annual probability based on flood recurrence intervals .......................................................... 44 Table 20: NCDC Flood Events ................................................................................................................. 44 Table 21: Flood Hazard Priority .............................................................................................................. 45 Table 22: Number of facilities and structures located within FEMA effective SFHA by Municipality ........ 46 Table 23: Number of facilities and structures located within FEMA effective SFHA by Type ................... 48 Table 24: NFIP policies and claims paid in Rhode Island as of April 30, 2016. Source: FEMA BureauNet . 51 Table 25: Non-mitigated repetitive and severe repetitive loss properties as of June 30, 2016 ................ 53 Table 26: CRS eligible community status as of May 2016. Source: FEMA ................................................ 55 Table 27: Beaufort Wind Scale ............................................................................................................... 58 Table 28: NCDC Wind Events ................................................................................................................. 59 Table 29: High Wind Hazard Priority ...................................................................................................... 61 Table 30: Mobile Home Structures in Rhode Island (E911 Site Type R3) ................................................. 62 Table 31: Extreme Heat Hazard Priority ................................................................................................. 69 Table 32: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Source: NWS NCDC ...................................................... 74 Table 33: Rhode Island Historic Hurricanes ............................................................................................ 75 Table 34: Hurricane and Tropical Storms Hazard Priority ....................................................................... 78 Table 35: Number of Days 20°F and Below ............................................................................................ 81 Table 36: Extreme Cold Hazard Priority .................................................................................................. 85 Table 37: NCDC Thunderstorm Events ................................................................................................... 87 Table 38: Significant NCDC Lightning Events .......................................................................................... 89 Table 39: Thunderstorm Hazard Priority ................................................................................................ 91 Table 40: DEM Dam Inventory (Source: 2015 RI Dam Safety Report List) ............................................... 93 Table 41: National Performance of Dams Program Rhode Island Reported Dam Incidents ..................... 96 Table 42: Dam Failure Hazard Priority .................................................................................................... 98 Table 43: RI Department of Environmental Management (DEM) Unsafe Dams. Source: Rhode Island 2015 Annual Report to the Governor on the Activities of the Dam Safety Program, prepared by the Office of Compliance and Inspection .................................................................................................................. 100 Table 44: Fire Hazard Priority ............................................................................................................... 108 Table 45: Facilities located within Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). Source Silvis Lab ........................... 109 Table 46: Sea level change studies ....................................................................................................... 112 Table 47: SLR scenarios shown in square miles of inundation area ....................................................... 112 Table 48: Global SLR scenarios ............................................................................................................. 115 Table 49: SLR Hazard Priority ............................................................................................................... 116 Table 50: E911 Residential Structures within SLR scenarios. ................................................................. 119 Table 51: E911 Commercial Structures within SLR scenarios. ............................................................... 122 Table 52: Infectious Disease Outbreaks Cases (2010-2014) .................................................................. 124 Table 53: Epidemic Hazard Priority ...................................................................................................... 125 Table 54: Drought indices and phases .................................................................................................. 130 Table 55: Palmer Drought Severity Index ............................................................................................. 131 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Page 4 Table 56: Rhode Island historical droughts and locations of impacts .................................................... 131 Table 57: Drought Hazard Priority .......................................................................................................