MILITARY CAPABILITY MANAGEMENT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA: THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC SITUATIONAL AND STRUCTURAL FACTORS ON MILITARY CAPABILITY AND STRATEGY RYO HINATA YAMAGUCHI A thesis submitted to the University of New South Wales in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2012 THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Name: Ryo Hinata Yamaguchi Date: 13 November 2012 i ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) military capability management. Specifically, the study focuses on how and to what extent the DPRK’s domestic situational and structural factors determine the capabilities of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) and mould national defence strategy. The thesis shows how the DPRK’s military capability management and its military industrial complex have been subject to intense centralization and politicization by the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and the National Defence Commission (NDC). These processes have led to the diversified asymmetric capabilities of the KPA. Since the mid-1960s, the DPRK has pursued the dangui gunsa roseon (Military Lines of the Party) as the fundamental doctrine of its military capability management. The doctrine aimed to make the state’s military capability conform to Kim Il-sung’s juche (self-reliance) ideology. Soon afterwards, the DPRK established the Second Economic Committee (SEC) to oversee the development of the KPA’s capabilities. However, as the economy went into steady decline, the KPA’s capabilities were inevitably affected. Further politicization of the military strengthened from 1999 through songun (military-led) politics, also raised questions over the policy’s effectives in the defence planning context. Moreover, with the death of Kim Jong-il and continuing economic failures, there is now greater uncertainty regarding the future of this military policy given the advent of the third generation DPRK leadership under Kim Jong-un. Given domestic circumstances, it is often assumed that the DPRK does not have sufficient capacity or flexibility to reconfigure its military capability. This dissertation examines these assumptions in greater depth by posing the following questions: What is the essential function of DPRK defence planning? What is the nature of the DPRK’s military capability development? How are the KPA’s capabilities reflected in the DPRK’s military strategy? This thesis applies methods used in defence planning such as the input-conversion-output model to the DPRK’s political-economic structure and situation to uncover the dynamics and objectives of the DPRK’s military capability management process. The thesis finds that Pyongyang faces numerous planning dilemmas, which not only have had decisive implications for the KPA’s mobilization capabilities, but also explain many aspects of the DPRK’s military behaviour to date. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In writing this thesis, I am indebted to many people who gave me much support. Without them, this thesis would not have been possible. First and foremost, I thank my supervisor Professor James Cotton. I am forever deeply indebted to his guidance, mentorship, and patient encouragement to write this thesis. Special thanks also to my co-supervisor Professor Aurelia George Mulgan for her valuable suggestions. I am very grateful to Professor Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University, who has mentored me since my undergraduate days and inspired me to study about the two Koreas. Without him, I would not be where I am today. I am honoured to have studied at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of New South Wales Canberra – the Australian Defence Force Academy. The research environment was truly ideal. I truly thank the Head of School, Professor David Lovell, Dr. Craig Stockings, Ms. Fiona Cotton, and Mr. Geoff Millar. I thank the administration staff, in particular Ms. Marilyn Anderson-Smith, Ms. Christa Cordes, Ms. Elvira Berra, Ms. Shirley Ramsey, Ms. Danica Robinson, Ms. Patsy Sheather, the library staff, and others for all their help. I am especially grateful to Ms. Bernadette McDermott who always provided invaluable support. I must also thank the Korea Foundation and the Korean Studies Association of Australasia for the Korea Foundation - Korean Studies Association of Australasia Graduate Studies Fellowship, which has generously provided me with financial support during the first three years of my candidature. The Korean Foundation has also supported me in the years 2006 and 2007 when I studied in Korea under the Korean Language Training Fellowship. What I learned during my fellowship has certainly proved to be invaluable to my doctorate research. To the members of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, School of International, Political and Strategic Studies, the Australian National University, I thank them for inspiring me to start my endeavours in studying about strategic and defence studies. In particular, I express my sincere gratitude to Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb, Professor Ron Huisken, Professor Robert Ayson, Professor Hugh White, Dr. Chris Chung, Professor Desmond Ball, Mr. Alan Hinge, Professor Brendan Taylor, Mr. Ross Thomas, and Ms. Meredith Thatcher, who all taught me a lot during my Master of Arts (Strategic Studies) candidature in the years 2005 and 2006. To my colleagues and at the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, I iii thank them for their professional support. I am indebted to the mentorship and guidance from Mr. Ralph A. Cossa, Mr. Brad Glosserman, and Mr. Carl Baker. I sincerely thank Ms. Ellise Akazawa, Mr. Sam Kim, and Mr. Christopher Charles Iwao Ota for proofreading my drafts, and also Mr. Justin Goldman and Dr. David Santoro for their comments and feedback. I also thank Ms. Georgette Almeida, Ms. Christina Failma, Ms. Nikki Forrester, Mr. Kerry Gershaneck, Ms. Christina Hatfield, Ms. Cristin Orr Shiffer, Mr. Radford Sagarang, Ms. Brooke Mizuno, Ms. Mari Skudlarick, Ms. Adrian Yi as well as the fellows and interns for their support. During my candidature, many experts and scholars have shared their precious time and invaluable expertise. In particular, I thank Professor Tsuneo Akaha, Mr. Peter Beck, Mr. David F. Day, Professor Shunji Hiraiwa, Ms. Ok-hee Jin, Mr. In-bum Kang, Professor In-duk Kang, Mr. James A. Kelly, Professor Su-hoon Lee, Associate Professor Narushige Michishita, Professor Md. Nasrudin Md. Hj Akhir, Dr. Sang-hyun Park, Ms. Se-young Park, Professor C. Kenneth Quinones, Dr. Kevin Shepard, Ms. Ji-yeon Seong, Dr. Yu-gyeong Shin, Professor Chung-sok Suh, Mr. David Jonathan Wolff, ret. Rear Admiral Lloyd "Joe" Vasey, ret. General Noboru Yamaguchi, as well as many other Australian, Chinese, Egyptian, Indonesian, Japanese, New Zealand, ROK, Singaporean, Taiwanese, US analysts, scholars and government officials. I am especially grateful to my long time mentor, Mr. Christopher Maitland Thomas, who kindly dedicated his precious time to critically proofread my drafts throughout my candidature. The research itself would not have been possible but for the following institutions, programs and universities where I conducted a significant portion of my research and other related activities: Akita International University, the Australian National University, Center for Strategic and International Studies, German Marshal Fund Young Strategists Forum, the National Library of Australia, Institute for East Asian Studies, Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, International Studies Association, Kansai-kan of the National Diet Library, Korea University, Korean Studies Association of Australasia, National Library Singapore, University of Malaya, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Waseda University, and Yonsei University. To the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. As a Sergeant First Class in the reserves, I am proud to be serving the nation of Japan, to contribute to our role for peace and stability. I also thank my management, FM BIRD Entertainment Agency, especially to Ms. Makiko Nagakura-Stapf, Mr. Yasunori Watahiki, and Mr. Yusuke Kakuta for their encouragement and support. iv To my brothers, sisters, friends and colleagues, I sincerely thank them for all their moral support and prayers. I am deeply indebted to my precious family for their love, patience and standing by me during my candidature. Finally, deep from my heart I thank my dearest partner and soul-mate “N” for her loving encouragement, smiles and support that gave me the energy to keep going even during the most challenging times. v CONTENTS ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ..................................................................................................... i ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................