INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the tmct directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter free, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely afreet reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6” x 9” black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor MI 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 THE ONSET OF REGIME TRANSITION FROM SINGLE TO MDLTIPARTY POLITICS: A CASE STUDY OF TANZANIA DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jessica I. vener, M.A. The Ohio State University 1996 Dissertation Committee: Professor R. William Liddle, Adviser pprdved by Professor Richard Gunther Adviser Professor Isaac J. Howoe Political Science Graduate Program UMI Number: 9710673 Copyright 1996 by Vener, Jessica Ivy All rights reserved. UMI Microform 9710673 Copyright 1997, by UMI Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 Copyright by Jessica I. Vener 1996 ABSTRACT Using the case of Tanzania, this research analyzes the causes for the onset of transition to multipartyism- a phenomenon which has pervaded the African continent in the past decade. This aspect of the transition is notably understudied in the body of democratic transition literature to-date which focuses mainly, rather, on the transition process only once it has begun and, then, on its ability to achieve successful democratic consolidation. While current research is largely impressionistic and untested, hypotheses have been derived from the literature and empirically tested through interviews conducted with Tanzanian political leaders- leaders who were involved in the country's implementation of multipartyism. The following proposed causal factors are tested: elite disunity, economic change, domestic opposition, political donor aid contingency, and democratic global political change. The findings suggest the relevance of each of these factors, in addition to their interrelation and combined effect upon the leadership to undertake multiparty transition in 1992. IX Dedicated to my wonderful parents li i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank my adviser Bill Liddle, Richard Gunther and Isaac Mowoe for their intellectual support, guidance, and encouragement which have made this study possible. I would also like to express my gratitude for the guidance which I received from Max Mmuya and Rwehikiza Hukandala of the Political Science Department at the University of Dar es Salaam. I am also indebted to them for inviting me to attend the Tanzanian national democratization conferences in the summer of 1994 organized by their department which provided me with an unparalleled opportunity to listen to and interact with the leaders of Tanzanian civil society, political opposition and government. I wish to thank the Tanzanian Commission on Science and Technology for granting me a research permit which enabled this study. This research would not have been possible without the generosity of Tanzanian political leaders and Embassy representatives in Dar es Salaam with whom I conducted interviews whose names are not listed only to protect their anonymity. Their enthusiasm for my research and their willingness to provide me with invaluable insight and to give me so much of their time was more than I could have hoped for. Interaction with them has endeared me to the political aspirations of their country. Arrangement for the interviews which I conducted with Members of the Tanzanian Parliament was made possible by the Principal Information IV officer of the Parliament, Richard F. Msaki, who went far beyond his responsibilities and to whom I am greatly indebted. I offer special thanks to Dr. Mowoe, as Director of the Ohio State University African Studies Center, for his continuous support and assistance throughout my studies at The Ohio State University. I also thank The Ohio State Graduate School for the award of a research grant which funded my travel to Tanzania. I also thank my colleague and husband, Paul D. Hoyt, for his invaluable support and encouragement throughout this project. VITA May 28, 1965. B o m - New York City, New York. 1997........ Instructor, West Virginia University. Instructor, Fairmont State College. 1996........ Instructor, Fairmont State College. 1994........ Research Affiliate, Department of Political Science, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. 1992-1994... Graduate Fellow, The Ohio State University. 1992........M.A. Political Science, 1992, The Ohio State University. 1989-1992... Graduate Teaching and Research Associate, The Ohio State University. 1987........ B.A. Political Science, New York University. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field; Political Science VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract............................................................ ii Dedication......................................................... iii Acknowledgments..................................................... iv Vita................................................................ vi List of Tables................................. viii List of Graphs...................................................... ix List of Figures............................... x Chapter 1 : Introduction.............................................. 1 Chapter 2: Economic Change.......................................... 32 Chapter 3: Global Democratization...................................85 Chapter 4: Domestic Opposition..................................... 117 Chapter 5: Democratic Donor Aid Contingency......................... 158 Chapter 6: Elite Disunity.......................................... 217 Chapter 7: Conclusion..............................................278 Bibliography....................................................... 289 V l l LIST OF TABLES Table Pace 1.....Global political transitions to multipaurty politics...... 109-10 2 Global reverse transitions from multiparty politics......... 112 V l l l LIST OP GRAPHS Graph Page 1 Tanzania' s GDP................................................ 76 2 Tanzania’s GNP................................................ 77 3 value of the Tsh in terms of the USD........................ 78 4 Tanzania's balance of trade...................................79 5 Tanzania's terms of trade..................................... 80 6 Tanzania's external debt...................................... 81 7 Tanzanian central government's direct investment............ 82 8 Tanzania's GDP per capita.....................................83 9 CPI for food..................................................84 10 Global transitions from single to multiparty politics........ Ill 11 Global reverse transitions from multi- to single­ party politics.............................................. 113 12 Tanzanian percentage of trade with transitional countries....114 13 African and non-African multiparty transitions...............115 14 Transitions from single to multiparty politics by economic orientation........................................ 116 15 implementation of democratic donor aid contingency...........214 IX LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Class structure and democratization/multiparty transition..... 15 2 Modernization and democratization/multiparty transition....... 16 3 Economic growth and democratization/multiparty transition..... 16 4 Economic decline and democratization/multiparty transition. 16 5 Interrelation of proposed causal factors......................28 6 Economic Change and multiparty transition.....................32 7 Economic liberalization and decline and multiparty transition................................................... 74 8 Global democratization and multiparty transition..............85 9 Domestic opposition and multiparty transition................118 10 Domestic opposition and multiparty transition (modified)..... 156 11 Donor aid contingency and multiparty transition..............159 12 Total net overseas development assistance to Tanzania 215-16 13 Elite disunity and multiparty transition.....................217 14 Tanzanian State leadership...................................221 15 Tanzanian Party leadership...................................221 16 Elite disunity and multiparty transition (modified)..........277 17 Interrelation of proposed causal factors (modified)..........286