America at a Crossroads Applying the lessons of history to the challenges of today ANNUAL2020 REPORT 2018 CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF THE PRESIDENCY & CONGRESS CSPC Board Of Trustees Maxmillian Angerholzer III The Honorable Edwin Meese III Institute of International Education The Heritage Foundation Wayne L. Berman The Honorable Glenn C. Nye III Blackstone Group President & CEO Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress Maury W. Bradsher District Equity Richard G. Phillips, Jr. Pilot Freight Services Eli Broad The Broad Foundations The Honorable Gerald R. Parsky Aurora Capital Group Julia Nickles Bryan YPO Democracy Group The Honorable Thomas R. Pickering CSPC Chairman The Honorable R. Nicholas Burns Hills & Company Harvard Kennedy School H. Gregory Platts Jay Collins National Geographic Society Citi The Honorable Thomas J. Ridge Robert Day Ridge Global, LLC W.M. Keck Foundation Gene Riechers The Honorable Paula J. Dobriansky 1855 Capital Harvard Kennedy School The Honorable Mike Rogers Bradford M. Freeman CSPC David M. Abshire Chair Freeman Spogli & Co. CNN The Honorable David Gergen Gillian Sandler Harvard Kennedy School Galapont Dr. Malik M. Hasan B. Francis Saul III Health Trio, Inc. & NuVue Pharma Saul Investment Group, LLC The Honorable Stuart W. Holliday Pamela Scholl Meridian International Center CSPC Vice Chairman Roy Kapani Dr. Scholl Foundation KapCo Holdings Stephen A. Schwarzman The Honorable Blanche Lincoln Blackstone Group Lincoln Policy Group George Stephanopoulos Daniel Lubin ABC News Radius Ventures Gary Wilson The Honorable Mel Martinez Manhattan Pacific Partners JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Honorable Thomas F. McLarty III McLarty Associates Introduction America at a Crossroads n 2020 America faces a decisive rity as a key underlying issue cutting across all inflection point. As a new great advanced technologies. As a new great pow- power competition takes shape, er paradigm takes shape, we will help create mechanisms for dialogue on vital issues such the race is on to establish stan- as arms control to counter the very real threat Idards in advanced computing and of a nuclear arms race. communications technologies, and to estab- This year will also bring the 50th anniver- lish competitive strengths in these critical sary of the CSPC Presidential Fellows pro- arenas. The outcomes of decisions and moves gram, and we are very excited to continue made this year will determine how well posi- strengthening one of our most valuable func- tioned the United States and its allies are to protect our na- tions—preparing the next generation of American and glob- tional security and way of life in the decades ahead. al leaders of integrity and inspiring them to careers of civic At the same time our country must navigate a complex leadership. As we bring our Presidential Fellows to Washing- era characterized by deep political divisions and historical- ton and help them understand and navigate the policy-mak- ly low confidence in the institutions charged with execut- ing world, we are emphasizing the science and technology is- ing our national strategy and keeping us safe. As the Ameri- sues that will drive some of the most important public policy can people confront an impeachment drama and head into debates in the coming decade. We are also seeking out Fel- a divisive presidential election, they will be bombarded by lows who have focused their studies on technology. the efforts of our adversaries to sow further confusion and Our experience for over 50 years has shown us that ef- discontent with our democratic system. It is vitally impor- forts to convene stakeholders on important national secu- tant that we resist those efforts and not become distracted rity questions and promote bipartisan action to move the at this critical moment. We must maintain our focus on na- country forward can be difficult in a highly polarized -po tional strategic objectives. litical environment. The Center is thus working with all of The work of the Center for the Study of the Presidency its partners, and in coordination with the “Fix the System” & Congress (CSPC) is shaped by that imperative, and in the coalition of reform-minded organizations, to change the year ahead we will focus on convening stakeholders from the incentive structure in our politics to promote bipartisan- Executive Branch, Congress, and private business to ensure ship, consensus-building and a more effective federal gov- the strategic conversation and national focus remain sharp. ernment capable of delivering timely budgets and common sense solutions to the challenges facing the nation. Imple- Our Work in 2020 menting such reforms in today’s hyper-partisan political en- In the coming year we will continue to help shape a national vironment is admittedly a challenge, but helping to fix our security strategy for space, while increasing our focus on ad- broken political and electoral systems remains a critically vanced technologies that hold the key to future security and important mission for the Center, one where we believe our prosperity, from artificial intelligence and machine learning policy work can act as a force multiplier. to 5G communications. In each case we must leverage Amer- On behalf of the Trustees of the Center, we are deeply ica’s core strengths of innovation and entrepreneurship in grateful for your interest in and support of the mission of order to win the global competition now underway. We will CSPC as we rededicate ourselves to the important work promote U.S. relationships and dialogue with key allies, in- ahead in 2020. cluding Japan, “Five Eyes” partners (Canada, Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand), NATO and others democracies in order to strengthen our global position. CSPC will em- ploy our convening power to bring together counterparts Glenn C. Nye III, President and CEO from allied countries to share best practices in cybersecu- Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress center for the study of the presidency & congress | 1 Contents Section I Promoting Bipartisanship & Informed Debate David M. Abshire Chair Mike Rogers: A New Era of Great Power Competition 4 CSPC Issues Analysis: The Friday News Roundups 8 CSPC in the Media: Timely Commentary on National Challenges 10 National Security: Fact-based Analysis & Reporting on National Defense 12 Section II Restoring Political Civility and Healing Divisions Political Reform: Renewing the Promise of American Democracy 14 Political Reform: A Commission on Civility and Effective Governance 19 The Presidency & Congress: The Historic Tragedy of Impeachment 20 Section III Project Solarium 2020 Space Policy: Securing America’s Space Leadership 24 Information Age Technology: “Geotech” & the Future Balance of Global Power 28 Cybersecurity: A Strategic Dialogue Between Democratic Allies 32 Nuclear Nonproliferation: Rebuilding Nonproliferation Guardrails 34 Section IV Fostering Enlightened Leadership Annual Leadership Awards: Honoring Bipartisan Leadership & Strategic Vision 36 Leadership Awards: An Honor Roll of Leaders 38 Presidential Fellows: Preparing & Inspiring Tomorrow’s Leaders 40 Section V Capturing the Lessons of History The Presidency & Congress: Triumphs & Tragedies in U.S. Governance 44 Counterterrorism: Lessons from America’s Longest Wars 45 Ambassador David M. Abshire Memoirs: How Ronald Reagan Avoided Impeachment 46 The White House: Presidential Studies Quarterly 47 CSPC Reports: Crafting Novel Solutions to National Challenges 48 Cover Photo: Rob Baker Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress Inside Photos: Rob Baker, Bekah De Boer, Flickr 601 Thirteenth Street, NW Suite 1050N Editor: James Kitfield Washington, DC 20005 Design: Jan Zimmeck Design 202-872-9800 Policy Director: Dan Mahaffee www.thepresidency.org Research: Joshua Huminski Production Assistants: Sara Spancake, Bekah De Boer, Christopher Condon, Erica Ngoenha 2 | center for the study of the presidency & congress Section One Promoting Bipartisanship & Informed Debate IN THE PAST YEAR Americans have witnessed the longest shutdown of the federal government in our history, a historic House impeachment over the president’s alleged abuse of power, and some of the most vitriolic rhetoric to ever coarsen our political discourse. Evidence continues to mount that our domestic politics have entered a sustained period of hyper- partisanship and gridlock, even as challenges to our interests and security continue to mount overseas. The late Ambassador David M. Abshire, the long-time president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress (CSPC), and a former adviser to numerous presidents, warned in his memoirs that we were heading into these dangerous waters largely because of a great deterioration in civility in our political debates. Today too many of our political leaders claim to revere the Constitution, and yet they reject the spirit of consensus-building and compromise that created it in the first place. At CSPC we have always viewed it as part of our core mission to promote bipartisanship and civility in our politics, the better to find the common ground necessary to move our nation forward. To advance that cause, last year former Representative Mike Rogers, R-MI, became the inaugural David M. Abshire Chair at the Center. Rogers’ spirit of bipartisanship, reputation for reaching across the political aisle, and deep expertise on matters of national security were all on prominent display during his many years as Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. As his record over the past