National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Program Center Natural Resource Condition Assessment for Lewis and Clark National Historical Park Natural Resource Report NPS/XXXX/NRR—20XX/XXX ON THE COVER View from Fort Columbia State Park across the mudflats to Cape Disappointment State Park, a unit of Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (T. Hinckley image) Natural Resource Condition Assessment for Lewis and Clark National Historical Park Natural Resource Report NPS/XXXX/NRR—20XX/XXX Jonathan D. Bakker (1) Thomas M. Hinckley (1) Mu-Ning Wang (1) Rachel M. Mitchell (1) Catherine Kilbane Gockel (1) Kern Ewing (1) Joshua J. Lawler (1) Sarah Reichard (1) Lesley Jantarasami (1) (2) Megan McCain (2) Kelly Y. Shea (1) School of Forest Resources, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (2) Program on the Environment, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 This report was prepared under Task Order XXXXXXXXXX of the Pacific Northwest Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (Cooperative Agreement between the National Park Service and University of Washington, H8W07060001, amendment #y) August 2010 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Program Center Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Program Center publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. 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Data in this report were collected and analyzed using methods based on established, peer- reviewed protocols and were analyzed and interpreted within the guidelines of the protocols. 3. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. 4. This report received formal, high-level peer review based on the importance of its content, or its potentially controversial or precedent-setting nature. Peer review was conducted by highly qualified individuals with subject area technical expertise and was overseen by a peer review manager. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the National Park Service. This report is available from [Your Network/Division etc. and URL] and the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/NRPM). [This paragraph can be modified to meet your specific needs]. Please cite this publication as: Bakker, J. D., T. M. Hinckley, M-N. Wang, R. M. Mitchell, C. K. Gockel, K. Ewing, J. J. Lawler, S. Reichard, L. Jantarasami, M. McCain, and K. Y. Shea. 2010. Natural resource condition assessment for Lewis and Clark National Historical Park. Natural Resource Report NPS/XXXX/NRR—20XX/XXX. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS XXXXXX, August 2010 ii Contents Page Figures............................................................................................................................................ ix Tables.............................................................................................................................................. x Appendices..................................................................................................................................... xi Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... xii Executive Summary..................................................................................................................... xiv Context and Methods............................................................................................................ xiv Park Description .................................................................................................................... xv Threats and Stressors ............................................................................................................. xv Information Needs ................................................................................................................ xvi Acknowledgments......................................................................................................................xviii Chapter 1 - NRCA Background Information.................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2 – Context and Methods .................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Preliminary Scoping .......................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Approach............................................................................................................................ 6 2.3 Reporting Areas................................................................................................................. 7 2.3.1 Multiple Park Focus .................................................................................................. 7 2.3.2 Ecological Reporting Units - Common...................................................................... 9 2.3.3 Ecological Reporting Units – LEWI ........................................................................ 10 2.4 Indicator Selection Process.............................................................................................. 10 2.4.1 Assessment Framework............................................................................................ 10 2.4.2 Candidate Resources and Indicators....................................................................... 13 2.5 Forms of Reference Conditions/Reference Values.......................................................... 14 2.6 Common Definitions and Methods.................................................................................. 19 iii 2.6.1 Biodiversity ..............................................................................................................19 2.6.1.1 Species Richness............................................................................................ 19 2.6.1.2 Endangered Species....................................................................................... 20 2.6.1.3 Noxious Weeds.............................................................................................. 21 2.6.1.4 Non-native Species ........................................................................................ 22 2.6.2 Land Cover and Recent Changes in Land Cover..................................................... 22 2.6.2.1 Current and Recent Changes in Land Cover ................................................. 22 2.6.2.2 Historical Land Cover.................................................................................... 23 2.6.3 Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 23 2.6.3.1 Present Trends in Temperature and Precipitation.......................................... 24 2.6.3.2 Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation.................................... 24 2.6.3.3 Sea-Level Rise............................................................................................... 25 2.6.3.4 Ocean Acidification....................................................................................... 25 2.6.4 Land Use ..................................................................................................................25 2.6.4.1 Impervious Surfaces ...................................................................................... 26 2.6.4.2 Road Density ................................................................................................. 26 2.6.4.3 Human Population ......................................................................................... 27 2.6.4.4 Zoned Land Use............................................................................................. 28 2.6.5 Air and Water........................................................................................................... 28 2.6.5.1 Air Quality....................................................................................................