UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SAN LUIS POTOSÍ FACULTADES DE CIENCIAS QUÍMICAS, INGENIERÍA Y MEDICINA PROGRAMAS MULTIDISCIPLINARIOS DE POSGRADO EN CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES AND COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS ANALYSIS OF A HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING TOOL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE VALLES RIVER BASIN, MEXICO THESIS TO OBTAIN THE DEGREE OF MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES DEGREE AWARDED BY UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SAN LUIS POTOSÍ AND MASTER OF SCIENCE “TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS FOCUS AREA “ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT” DEGREE AWARDED BY COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES PRESENTS: FABIÁN DARÍO COTE NAVARRO CO-DIRECTOR OF THESIS PMPCA DRA. MARÍA GUADALUPE GALINDO MENDOZA CO-DIRECTOR OF THESIS ITT: PROF. DR. LARS RIBBE ASSESSOR: DR. MAXIME SOUVIGNET SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, MÉXICO SEPTEMBER 2011 SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, MÉXICO OR COLOGNE, GERMANY DATE UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SAN LUIS POTOSÍ FACULTADES DE CIENCIAS QUÍMICAS, INGENIERÍA Y MEDICINA PROGRAMAS MULTIDISCIPLINARIOS DE POSGRADO EN CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES AND COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS ANALYSIS OF A HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING TOOL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE VALLES RIVER BASIN, MEXICO THESIS TO OBTAIN THE DEGREE OF MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES DEGREE AWARDED BY UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SAN LUIS POTOSÍ AND MASTER OF SCIENCE “TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS FOCUS AREA “ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT” DEGREE AWARDED BY COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES PRESENTS: FABIÁN DARÍO COTE NAVARRO DRA. MARÍA GUADALUPE GALINDO MENDOZA PROF. DR. LARS RIBBE DR. MAXIME SOUVIGNET SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, MÉXICO SEPTEMBER 2011 SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, MÉXICO OR COLOGNE, GERMANY DATE PROYECTO FINANCIADO POR: SISTEMA NACIONAL DE VIGILANCIA EPIDEMIOLÓGICA -SINAVEF PROYECTO REALIZADO EN: PMPCA - UASLP AGENDA AMBIENTAL UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SAN LUIS POTOSÍ INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS COLOGNE UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES CON EL APOYO DE: DEUTSCHER AKADEMISCHER AUSTAUSCH DIENST (DAAD) CONSEJO NACIONAL DE CIENCIA Y TECNOLOGÍA (CONACYT) LA MAESTRÍA EN CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES RECIBE APOYO A TRAVÉS DEL PROGRAMA NACIONAL DE POSGRADOS (PNPC - CONACYT) Erklärung / Declaración Name / Nombre: Fabián Darío Cote Navarro Matri.-Nr. / N° de matricula: 11074529 (CUAS), 0180189 (UASLP) Ich versichere wahrheitsgemäß, dass ich die vorliegende Masterarbeit selbstständig verfasst und keine anderen als die von mir angegebenen Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt habe. Alle Stellen, die wörtlich oder sinngemäß aus veröffentlichten und nicht veröffentlichten Schriften entnommen sind, sind als solche kenntlich gemacht. Aseguro que yo redacté la presente tesis de maestría independientemente y no use referencias ni medios auxiliares a parte de los indicados. Todas las partes, que están referidas a escritos o a textos publicados o no publicados son reconocidas como tales. Die Arbeit ist in gleicher oder ähnlicher Form noch nicht als Prüfungsarbeit eingereicht worden. Hasta la fecha, un trabajo como éste o similar no ha sido entregado como trabajo de tesis. San Luis Potosí, den /el ________________ Unterschrift / Firma: ______________ Ich erkläre mich mit einer späteren Veröffentlichung meiner Masterarbeit sowohl auszugsweise, als auch Gesamtwerk in der Institutsreihe oder zu Darstellungszwecken im Rahmen der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit des Institutes einverstanden. Estoy de acuerdo con una publicación posterior de mi tesis de maestría en forma completa o parcial por las instituciones con la intención de exponerlos en el contexto del trabajo investigación de las mismas. Unterschrift / Firma: __________________ Acknowledgements I dedicate the efforts made for this work to my family, my mother, father, sister and brother, who have always loved me and believed in me without asking anything in return. They have always been there for me to give all their support and wisdom, especially during hard times. For them, all of my love. The experience of the master program and the elaboration of this thesis wouldn’t have been possible without the financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) in Mexico and the Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD) in Germany, whom I thank for allowing one of the best experiences of my life. I extend my gratitude also to the Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí and the Fachhochshule Köln for giving me the opportunity to take this master program. Among the staff of the two universities I would like to thank my tutor committee: to Dr. Maria Guadalupe Galindo for her demanding attitude, to Prof. Dr. Lars Ribbe for his guidance and, especially, to Dr. Maxime Souvignet for his enthusiasm and constant support for the modelling process. I give special thanks to some professors who supported me somehow: Dr. Carlos Contreras Servín, Dr. Javier Fortanelli Martínez, Dr. Juan Carlos García and Dr. Jackon Roehrig, mostly for their supportive and encouraging attitude. Sincere thanks to the coordination and administrative staff of both universities, especially to Dr. María Deogracias Ortiz for her hard work. I’d also like to acknowledge the support I received from other people, like the SINAVEF staff from whom I got technical support and important information, to Noé Aguilar, also Mr. Melquiades de León in Ejido Laguna del Mante, Dr. Oscar Osmín Meraz from Fundación PRODUCE in Ciudad Valles and the people from El Estribo research centre in El Naranjo for their support during field visits and the information given. I’m also very grateful with my master fellows, my roommates and all the people who made this stage of my life even more special. To the Mexican people, all my gratitude for your kindness. INDEX ABSTRACT - 11 - RESUMEN - 12 - ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - 13 - 1. INTRODUCTION - 13 - 1.1. RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT - 14 - 1.2. OBJECTIVES - 18 - 1.3. JUSTIFICATION - 18 - 1.4. ANTECEDENTS - 20 - 2. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK - 25 - 2.1. WATER CYCLE, HYDROLOGY AND WATERSHEDS - 25 - 2.2. WATERSHED AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT - 27 - 2.3. HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING - 30 - 2.4. LAND USE / LAND COVER AND WATERSHED HYDROLOGY 44 3. THE VALLES RIVER BASIN 50 3.1. HYDROGRAPHY 50 3.2. SOCIOECONOMICAL CONTEXT 52 3.3. CLIMATE 55 3.4. GEOLOGY 62 3.5. VEGETATION AND LAND USE 63 3.6. SOILS 75 3.7. WATER ISSUES IN THE VALLES RIVER BASIN 78 4. METHODOLOGY 81 4.1. MORPHOMETRICS 81 4.2. MODEL SET UP 83 4.3. MODEL CALIBRATION 100 4.4. SIMULATION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE EFFECTS 105 5. RESULTS 107 5.1. MORPHOMETRICS 107 5.2. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE WATERSHED’S HYDROLOGY 107 5.3. MODEL CALIBRATION 112 6. ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS 118 6.1. ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 118 6.2. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 127 REFERENCES 131 ANNEX 1 141 ANNEX 2 143 ANNEX 2 145 FIGURES INDEX Figure 2.1: Water cycle scheme.....................................................................................................26 Figure 2.2: Classification of hydrologic models...............................................................................32 Figure 2.3: Schematic representation of the hydrologic cycle as conceptualized in SWAT..............37 Figure 3.1: Location of the Valles river basin....................................................................................50 Figure 3.2: Hydrography of the Valles River basin.......................................................................51 Figure 3.3: Longitudinal profile of the Valles River basin...............................................................52 Figure 3.4: Cross-sectional profile of the Valles River basin...........................................................52 Figure 3.5: Localities in the VRB by population size........................................................................53 Figure 3.6: Climate units of the Valles River basin according to INEGI..........................................56 Figure 3.7: Climate units of the Valles River basin according to Hernández (2007)..........................56 Figure 3.8: Climatic diagram of San Juan del Meco station.............................................................57 Figure 3.9: Climatic diagram of Abritas station..............................................................................57 Figure 3.10: Climatic diagram of El Tigre station...........................................................................57 Figure 3.11: Climatic diagram of Santa Rosa station......................................................................57 Figure 3.12: Evolution of the Drought Severity Index in the Huasteca Potosina (Algara Siller, et al., 2009).........................................................................................................................................60 Figure 3.13: Geology map of the Valles River basin........................................................................62 Figure 3.14: Land Use and Land Cover map of the Valles River basin (2003)....................................63 Figure 3.15: Location of the Sierra del Abra Tanchipa Natural Protected Area...............................72 Figure 3.16: Growth of surface planted with sugarcane in the Huasteca Potosina (Aguilar Rivera, 2011).........................................................................................................................................74 Figure 3.17: Soils map of the Valles