TECHNICAL REPORT CLIMATE RISKS TO CONSERVATION IN UGANDA AN ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED REGIONS May 2017 This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics for the ATLAS Task Order. This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics for the Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Task Order No. AID-OAA-I-14-00013, under the Restoring the Environment through Prosperity, Livelihoods, and Conserving Ecosystems (REPLACE) IDIQ. Chemonics contact: Chris Perine, Chief of Party ([email protected])- Chemonics International Inc. 1717 H Street NW Washington, DC 20006 ATLAS reports and other products are available on the ClimateLinks website (https://www.climatelinks.org/projects/atlas). Cover Photo: ATLAS. CLIMATE RISKS TO CONSERVATION IN UGANDA AN ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED REGIONS May 2017 Prepared for: United States Agency for International Development Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Prepared by: Chemonics International Inc. This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government. CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ···································································· III ACRONYMS ·································································································· V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ················································································· VI Purpose vi Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... vi Key Findings .................................................................................................................................... viii Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ ix 1. ASSESSMENT PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY ··········································· 1 1.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 2 Research Questions .......................................................................................................................... 2 Selection of Study Landscapes ......................................................................................................... 3 Team and Study Design .................................................................................................................... 4 Ratings of Landscapes On Several Criteria ....................................................................................... 5 Study Limitations and Assumptions ................................................................................................... 6 2. LANDSCAPE ANALYSES ············································································ 9 General Background ........................................................................................................ 9 Climate Stressors ............................................................................................................................ 10 Non-climate Stressors ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 LANDSCAPE 1 ANALYSIS ········································································12 Kidepo Valley National Park (KVNP), Pian Upe Wildlife Reserve (WR), Lake Bisina and Lake Opeta Wetlands Systems and Surrounding Communities ........ 12 Region: Dry Cattle Corridor ............................................................................................................. 12 2.1.1 Location and Description ........................................................................................................ 13 2.1.2 Unique Climate Characteristics .............................................................................................. 13 2.1.3 Climate Projections ................................................................................................................. 13 2.1.4 Non-Climate Stressors............................................................................................................ 13 2.1.5 Biodiversity Resources of Importance .................................................................................... 14 2.1.6 Livelihoods of Importance ....................................................................................................... 15 2.1.7 Ecosystem Services ............................................................................................................... 15 2.1.8 Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Adaptive Responses ................................................. 15 2.1.9 Climate Change Risk Significance Rating .............................................................................. 23 2.2 LANDSCAPE 2 ANALYSIS ········································································24 Lake Mburo Conservation Area (LMCA) and Surrounding Communities ....................... 24 Region: Dry Cattle Corridor ............................................................................................................. 24 2.2.1 Location and Description ........................................................................................................ 25 2.2.2 Unique Climate Characteristics .............................................................................................. 25 2.2.3 Climate Projections ................................................................................................................. 25 2.2.4 Non-Climate Stressors............................................................................................................ 25 2.2.5 Biodiversity Resources of Importance .................................................................................... 26 2.2.6 Livelihoods of Importance ....................................................................................................... 26 2.2.7 Ecosystem Services ............................................................................................................... 27 2.2.8 Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Adaptive Responses ................................................. 27 2.2.9 Climate Change Risk Significance Rating .............................................................................. 38 2.3 LANDSCAPE 3 ANALYSIS ········································································39 Rwenzori Mountains National Park (RMNP) and Surrounding Communities ................. 39 Region: Albertine Rift ....................................................................................................................... 39 2.3.1 Location and Description ........................................................................................................ 40 DRAFT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE RISKS TO CONSERVATION PROGRAMMING IN UGANDA | I 2.3.2 Unique Climate Characteristics .............................................................................................. 40 2.3.3 Climate Projections ................................................................................................................. 40 2.3.4 Non-Climate Stressors............................................................................................................ 40 2.3.5 Biodiversity Resources of Importance .................................................................................... 41 2.3.6 Livelihoods of Importance ....................................................................................................... 42 2.3.7 Ecosystem Services ............................................................................................................... 42 2.3.8 Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Adaptive Responses ................................................. 43 2.3.9 Climate Change Risk Significance Rating .............................................................................. 51 2.4 LANDSCAPE 4 ANALYSIS ········································································52 Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA), Echuya Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities .............................................................. 52 Region: Albertine Rift ....................................................................................................................... 52 2.4.1 Location and Description ........................................................................................................ 53 2.4.2 Unique Climate Characteristics .............................................................................................. 53 2.4.3 Climate Projections ................................................................................................................. 53 2.4.4 Non-Climate Stressors............................................................................................................ 53 2.4.5 Biodiversity Resources of Importance ...................................................................................