WORK IN THE AGE OF DATA BBVA OPENMIND DATA, IDEAS, AND PROPOSALS ON DIGITAL ECONOMY AND THE WORLD OF WORK BBVAOPENMIND.COM Work in the Age of Data 2 Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: A Chinese Perspective by Kai-Fu Lee 3 Introduction: The Age of AI Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chair- man of the World Economic Forum and au- thor of The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized the era we currently live in as defined by “a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres.”1 No previ- ous technological revolution drew upon so Artificial Intelligence many different advancements all at once, and most certainly not at a comparable speed. and the Future of Work: The velocity of innovation caused by this multimodal transformation has prompted a heated debate about the fu- A Chinese Perspective ture of humanity, asking us to examine the limits of our own capacity to understand and make use of the technological break- throughs previously never thought possi- ble: can our understanding keep up with the changes at hand? How do we adjust? Kai-Fu Lee Will machines eventually rule our lives? What does it mean to be human in the age of the machines? Our cognitive functions have not kept up with technological advancements. Hu- man relationship with intelligent machines is still perhaps best epitomized by Arthur C. Clarke’s and Stanley Kubrick’s HAL 9000—something to admire and fear in equal measure—prompting us to defend, while at the same time question, the su- premacy of human intelligence. What do we do with the machines whose limits we may not be able to imagine? If the rate of technological change con- tinues at this pace, it follows that humans will soon be flanked by automatons and ro- As with most technological breakthroughs, the bots, automating every aspect of our lives. Well, maybe someday. hype when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI) In reality, the science trails consider- has far preceded its widespread application ably behind the futuristic visions of a soci- in the real world. This article explores key ety where artificial intelligence (AI) reigns challenges that need to be overcome over the supreme. In fact, if I were to make a predic- next decade, at a global level, in order to ensure tion today, based on the scientific progress that AI’s potential can be successfully deployed at hand, I would say with confidence that to enhance our working lives and productivity true machine intelligence at human level gains. It also places the responsibility for AI is a very distant prospect, if ever reachable. advancement firmly in the court of “traditional” Advancements in AI have so far been industries—radical impact will not come from limited to single-domain tasks. As of today, AI can more efficiently process vast quan- the technology sector alone, rather from the tities of information about something very innovative, timely, and systematic adoption of specific, such as playing a game, health- AI by established companies. While focused care diagnostics, or speech recognition. But on AI’s global impact, the article also provides it cannot think laterally to apply learnings a Chinese perspective on challenges and to a different domain. It cannot form an opportunities of its adoption at scale. opinion about what it is doing. And it most Work in the Age of Data 4 certainly does not have any feelings about capture human senses, analyze, and make But, will it affect everyone in the same way? what it is doing. decisions based on such data. Computer Research shows that AI will enable the But, whether we realize truly intelli- vision technology has become mainstream: creation of unprecedented wealth: Price- gent machines (often referred to as Arti- machines now recognize human faces, traf- waterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates that ficial General Intelligence or AGI) or not, fic patterns, or even merchandise we select the wide adoption of AI will add about $15.7 AI is already transforming how we live and from stores. Speech recognition technology trillion to worldwide GDP by 20303—barely work, finding its way into most domains of can now analyze and synthesize languag- a decade from now. This growth will con- human activity. While technologists and es, enabling simultaneous translations and tinue its exponential trajectory toward the pundits debate humans’ future relation- machine-generated news reporting. We will year 2050. ship with machines, what is not debated see fast development of AI in software and There is tremendous business value nearly enough is the imminent impact of hardware during this wave. to be gained through the adoption of AI, various AI-powered technologies. How do Most recently, in 2018, autonomous but wealth creation will not be even. As we cope with job loss? How do we ensure systems saw their first applications across I indicate in my book—AI Superpowers: our education systems can keep up? What industries, allowing us to imagine the not- China, Silicon Valley, and the New World about social services? so-distant future where autonomous vehi- Order—gains from early AI innovation are Our understanding of ourselves and our cles dominate the roads, and possibly even akin to winner-takes-all scenario, with two role in society is already, if slowly, being airways. Automation AI is already trans- economic giants—the United States and challenged. If humans will no longer be forming traditional heavy-weight players China—already leading the way, being the required to perform an array of jobs, and in transportation, logistics, and manufac- homes to all of the world’s corporate AI gi- if what we have learned at school may soon turing, to name a few. ants. In the PwC predictions I mentioned no longer apply—how do we adjust our In what seems like the blink of an eye, above, the most significant growth is ex- course and our expectations of our work- we have found ourselves in possession of a pected to come from China, not least due ing lives? Such questions should be front- multifaceted technology whose application to its vast population, which accounts for of-mind for governments, their economic is as pervasive as that of electricity. In fact, almost a fifth of all the world’s people. advisers, education ministers, school prin- it may not be an exaggeration to say that Inequality between countries must be cipals and deans, and business leaders, as we already may not know what it means tackled through international diplomacy well as parents everywhere. to have lived without AI. channels, with the US and China lending What is more, the transformation their resources and know-how to avoid through AI has only just begun. Leaders exacerbating global inequality. But even across industries have begun to consider more pertinently, inequality within coun- And So It Begins AI’s application for their own businesses tries—stemming from job displacement, en masse. According to Deloitte’s “State skills gap, education inequality, and lack We are already at the epicenter of synchro- of AI in the Enterprise” 2019 report,2 57% of access—must be made a national prior- nous disruption brought upon by AI across of business leaders believe that AI will ity for governments and businesses across all industries. I use a “Four Waves of AI” have a transformative impact on their own the world. framework to elaborate AI’s impact on the company in the next three years. While While it may take fifteen or more years business scenario—they do not come one fewer, 38%, believe AI will power the same for AI-powered technologies to have an im- after the other, but rather simultaneously, transformation across their industries, pact across industries, we must act quickly transforming the way we live (fig. 1). the trajectory is clear: AI is permeating to put in place the infrastructure needed to The first wave of AI innovation, Internet most domains of human endeavor. What avoid massive disruption and lessen hu- AI, began around 2010, completely trans- will separate the winners from the losers man hardship that will inevitably come in forming our use of the Internet with the is their ability to grasp the magnitude of the form of vast job losses and the uneven breakthrough brought by the invention of change and adapt in time. distribution of wealth. deep learning. Search, online advertising, The fundamental truth of our time is as social media, e-commerce—advancements follows: AI is the greatest frontier facing in these online activities that are now part humanity to date and we must act now to AI Infusion and parcel of our everyday lives—have all get it right. been predicated on advancements in AI. While we are enamored by great AI compa- In 2014, businesses, particularly those nies like Deepmind, the $15.7 trillion value where data is readily available, started to will not be realized through them. From to- embrace AI, creating the foundations for How Prepared Are We for AI? day’s vantage point, AI’s biggest opportunity the advancement of industries such as AI fin- is infusion into traditional companies. This tech, remote education, digitization of public AI’s potential to change the way we live and will be greatly enhanced by the rapid devel- services, and supply chain management. I work is so vast that its current uses are a opment of AI platforms, so that more and would call this second, largely software-driv- mere scratch on the surface of what is yet more traditional companies can implement en, wave of innovation—Business AI. to come. Every aspect of our lives will be AI, without requiring deep AI expertise.