Executive Report Annual Assessment No. 8 2011-12 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute ANNUAL ASSESSMENT JPPI's New Dashboard Geopolitical Turmoil in the Middle East Creating Jewish Meaning in the U.S. and Europe Israeli Democracy: Politics and Society THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. www.jppi.org.il (JWBU3BN$BNQVTr10#+FSVTBMFN [email protected] 5FMr'BY Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council: !e Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Co-Chairs incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. !e mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies Stuart Eizenstat of the Jewish People and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning Dennis Ross on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Jack Kay People is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. Associate Chair Irina Nevzlin Kogan Leonid Nevzlin JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing POCFIBMGPG/BEBW'PVOEBUJPO their potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works towards developing professional Jerry W. Levin Members of the Board strategic and long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future BT1SFTJEFOUPG6+"'FEFSBUJPOPG/FX:PSL Irwin Cotler of the Jewish People. 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Aharon Yadlin President and Founding Director Avinoam Bar-Yosef Projects Coordinator Ita Alcalay ANNUAL ASSESSMENT 2011!2012 Executive Report No. 8 JPPI's New Dashboard Geopolitical Turmoil in the Middle East Creating Jewish Meaning in the U.S. and Europe Israeli Democracy: Politics and Society PROJECT HEADS Dr. Shlomo Fischer, Jewish People Developments Amb. Avi Gil, Geopolitical Turmoil in the Middle East Prof. Steven Popper, 2011-12 Integrated 'Net' Assessment CONTRIBUTORS Gedaliah Afterman, Avinoam Bar-Yosef, Nadia Ellis, Sylvia Barak Fishman, Inbal Hakman, Michael Herzog, Arielle Kandel, Yogev Karasenty, Antony Korenstein, Dov Maimon, Asaf Nissenbaum, Sever Plocker, Shmuel Rosner, Suzanne Last Stone, Shalom Salomon Wald, Noah Weinberg, Alexander Yakobson EDITORS Barry Geltman Rami Tal Copyright © !e Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel, Ltd.) Jerusalem 2012/5772 JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 91391, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design ISBN 978-965-7549-06-3 Table of Contents Foreword By Ambassadors Dennis Ross and Stuart Eizenstat 5 2011-12 Integrated "Net" Assessment 9 Selected Indicators of World Jewry – 2011-12 26 !e Jewish People’s Agenda: Dilemmas and Suggested Policy Directions 29 2. Geopolitical Developments Developments in the Geopolitical Arena and their Possible Implications for Israel and the Jewish People (2011-12) 39 3. Creating Jewish Meaning in the United States and Europe Creating Jewish Meaning: Emerging Adults, Cultural Creativity, and the Jewish Future in the U.S. and Europe 111 4. Developments in Israel Analysis: A New Political Landscape 139 New Proposed Knesset Bills and Israeli Democracy 145 Summer 2011 in Israel: !e Revolt of the "Undeprived"— What it Was, How it Was, What’s Left 157 !e People's Army? Orthodox Soldiers and Religious Dilemmas in the IDF 177 Science and Technology Policy in a Jewish People Context 191 5. Developments to Watch 205 1 F o r e w o r d One of the signal achievements of the JPPI has analysis and set of conclusions about the state been the production of the Annual Assessment of world Jewry. In an interesting innovation, it of the Situation and Dynamics of the Jewish compares the state of the Jewish People over time, People. If all it provided were a snapshot of using these key dimensions and evaluating how the state of the Jewish People in Israel and the each looked in 1945, 1970, 1999, and 2011. Diaspora worldwide, it would represent a major Obviously, in 1945, after the Shoah and before the contribution. Indeed, even on this limited basis, emergence of the State of Israel, world Jewry was at it would provide a foundation for making annual a nadir. But the 1970, 1999, and 2011 comparisons comparisons about directions, trends, problem are noteworthy. In both 1970 and 1999, Israel’s areas and potential opportunities, and these standing internationally was clearly higher, Israel annual comparisons would provide insight for faced fewer and less direct threats than today, and developing priorities and programs. From its the bonds within the Diaspora and with Israel were inauguration, the Annual Assessment has met very strong. Jewish identity and demographic this standard and o"ered recommendations for trends did not seem to be under stress in 1970. But addressing critical needs. by 1999 the issue was clearer and responses to it !e 2011-12 Annual Assessment once again meets were not yet being developed. this standard. In truth, however, it goes above At the dawn of the 21st century, the Jewish and beyond only o"ering a snapshot for annual People enjoyed—for the first time in its history comparison. !e 2011-12 Assessment o"ers a clear —significant "hard power," mainly due to Israel's framework for judging whether world Jewry and strong army, strong emerging economy, and Israel are thriving, maintaining, or declining. Using rapidly developing, creative high-technology five key dimensions—geopolitical developments, sector. !e Jewish People's "soft power" too, was demography, identity formation and expression, impressive, a result largely of the recognition intra and inter-community bonds, and material widely accorded to Diaspora Jewry's multiple resources—the Assessment provides a penetrating contributions to humanity, and the cultural, THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 5 economic, and intellectual prominence Jews gas fields in Israel's territorial waters provided a had achieved in countries around the world, major boost. In the Diaspora, Jewish financial particularly in North America. resources are also recovering. Although the decreasing proportion of Jewish philanthropy By 2011, however, it became clear that the going to Jewish causes is a matter of concern, the geopolitical threats may be as great as at any time "soft-power" value of Jewish contributions to the since Israel's founding in 1948—with upheaval general community is extraordinary. in the Arab Middle East and the rising tide of the Muslim Brotherhood, which ideologically !is Annual Assessment also dramatizes that we remains fundamentally hostile to Israel; with the are at a critical inflection point in Jewish history. stockpiling of hundreds of thousands of rockets We can manage the external threats with a strong near Israel’s northern and southern borders, and sovereign Jewish state, an enduring alliance with the uncertainty of what will emerge in Syria; the most powerful nation on earth, the United and with the question of whether force will be States, and a well-integrated Diaspora, at least needed to resolve the potentially existential half of which is strongly identified with Jewish threat from Iran. religious or cultural activities. While the Annual Assessment identifies the But internal challenges are troubling, such as di#cult geopolitical dilemmas and challenges democraphic decline and assimilation in the our people faces, other measures may look