UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Terminal Evaluation of UNDP/GEF project 5332 “Supporting rural community adaptation to climate change in mountainous regions of Djibouti” Evaluation report Dr Marie-Ange Baudoin, Pierre Bégat Evaluation timeframe: November 2019 – February 2020 Report submitted in February 2020 1 Terminal evaluation report for the UNDP/GEF “Supporting rural community adaptation to climate change in mountainous regions of Djibouti” GEF Project ID: 5332 GEF Agency Project ID: 5189 Evaluation timeframe: November 2019 – February 2020 Report submitted in February 2020 Country included in the project: Djibouti GEF Fund: Least Developed Countries Fund GEF Focal Area: Climate change Executing Partner: Ministry of Habitat, Urbanism and the Environment Evaluation team members: Dr Marie-Ange Baudoin (lead), Pierre Bégat Acknowledgments The evaluation team wishes to thank the project team, especially the Project Manager, Aïcha AHMED, the Project Assistant, Hamad HOUMED and UNDP Djibouti Climate change/environment Junior Expert, Hibo MOHAMED, who facilitated the evaluation process – in particular during the in-country mission. The evaluation team was well received by institutional partners, in particular UNDP Djibouti Country Office, the Ministry of Habitat, Urbanism and the Environment, and beneficiary communities. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive summary ................................................................................................... 6 A. Project summary table ..................................................................................................... 6 B. Project description ........................................................................................................... 6 C. Evaluation rating table ..................................................................................................... 7 D. Summary of conclusions, recommendations and lessons learned ...................................... 7 II. Acronyms .................................................................................................................. 4 III. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 11 A. Purpose of the evaluation .............................................................................................. 11 B. Scope and methodology ................................................................................................. 11 C. Structure of the evaluation report .................................................................................. 13 IV. Project description and development context ...................................................... 14 A. Project start and duration .............................................................................................. 14 B. Problems that the project sought to address .................................................................. 14 C. Immediate and development objectives of the project ................................................... 14 D. Baseline indicators established ....................................................................................... 15 E. Main stakeholders ......................................................................................................... 20 F. Expected Results ............................................................................................................ 21 V. Findings .................................................................................................................. 23 A. Project Design / Formulation .......................................................................................... 23 B. Project Implementation ................................................................................................. 38 C. Project Results ............................................................................................................... 47 VI. Conclusions, Recommendations & Lessons .......................................................... 75 Annex 1: Terms of Reference .......................................................................................... 77 Annex 2: Itinerary ........................................................................................................... 85 Annex 3: List of persons interviewed .............................................................................. 87 Annex 4: Summary of field visits ..................................................................................... 88 Annex 5: List of documents reviewed .............................................................................. 99 Annex 6: Evaluation Question Matrix ............................................................................ 100 Annex 7: Questionnaire used and summary of results ................................................... 108 Annex 8: Evaluation Consultant Agreement Form ......................................................... 114 Annex 9: Proposal for Terms of reference of future grouped procurement of water pumps .................................................................................................................................... 116 3 I. ACRONYMS AWS Automatic Weather Station CCA Climate change adaptation CERD Djibouti Studies and Research Center (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherche de Djibouti) CMC Catchment Management Committee CO Country Office COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPAP Country Programme Action Plan CPD Country Programme Document CSO Civil Society Organisation CTA Chief Technical Advisor DAF Development Assistance Framework DEDD Direction of Environment and Sustainable Development (Direction de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable) DRM Disaster risk management DRR Disaster risk reduction EA Executing Agency EAC East African Community ESS Environmental & Social Safeguards EVA Environnement Village Adailou FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FP Focal point GCF Green Climate Fund GEF Global Environment Facility GPAA Rural Agricultural Association of Assamo (Groupement Paysan Agricole Assamo) HH Household HYCOS Hydrological Cycle Observing System IA Implementing Agency IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency LRCMC Local Risk and Catastrophe Management Committee M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MAEPERH Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Livestock Farming (Ministère de l’Agriculture, de l’Elevage, de la Pêche et des Ressources Halieutiques) MESR Ministry of Higher Education and Research (Ministère de l’Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche) MHUE Ministry of Habitat, Urbanism and the Environment MTE Midterm evaluation MUET Ministry of Urbanism, Environment and Tourism NCCC National Climate Change Committee NCCS National Climate Change Strategy NECCF National Environment and Climate Change Fund NGO Non-governmental organisation 4 NIM National Implementation Modality NMA National Meteorological Agency NPC National Procurement Commission ONEAD National Water and Sanitation Agency (Office National de l'Eau et de l'Assainissement Djibouti PIF Project Information Form PIR Project Interim Report PMU Project Management Unit PMU Project Manager PPG Project Preparation Grant PRODERMO Rural Community Development and Water Mobilisation Project (Projet de développement rural communautaire et de mobilisation des eaux) PSC Project Steering Committee PSPP Supporting Horn of Africa’s Resilience – Securing Pastoral Systems in Djibouti (Projet de Sécurisation des Systèmes Pastoraux) RBF Results-based framework RTA Regional Technical Advisor SADC Southern African Development Community SMART Specific, Manageable, Agreeable, Realistic, Time-Bound TE Terminal Evaluation ToR Terms of Reference UNDP United Nations Development Programme 5 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Project summary table Project title: Supporting rural community adaptation to climate change in mountainous regions of Djibouti GEF Project ID (PMIS #): 5189 UNDP approval date: 07/25/2014 Country: Djibouti GEF approval date: 08/04/2014 Region: Africa Date of first disbursement: October 2015 Focal Area: Climate change Midterm Evaluation completion date: September 2018 GEF Focal Area Strategic Objective: Planned duration: 4 years CCA-1 Outcome 1.1: Mainstreamed adaptation in broader development frameworks at country level and in targeted vulnerable areas CCA-2 Outcome 2.2: Strengthened adaptive capacity to reduce risks to climate-induced economic losses Trust Fund: GEF LDCF Completion date: February 2019 Executing Agency/ Implementing Partner: Ministry of Habitat, Urbanism and the Environment Other execution partners: Ministry of Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Livestock Farming, Ministry of Higher Education and Research, association Environnement Village Adailou (EVA), cooperative Groupement Paysan Agricole Assamo Project Financing Total costs GEF: Disbursed (USD, as of January USD 5,379,452 2020): USD 5,350,757 B. Project description The evaluated project, the operational execution of which officially terminated on 31 December 2019, was designed to reduce the vulnerability of rural populations in mountainous areas of Djibouti to repeated water shortages. Such shortages have been increasingly frequent, culminating with four consecutive years of failed rainfall between 2008 and 2011 that depleted up to 80% of communal wells across the country. Due to the lack of water, farmers and pastoralists are experiencing a severe drop in agricultural and livestock production