MISS AMERICA IN REVIEW George L. Miller, Northern Illinois University AllSTRACr rv.nbering 17, 17 and 16. These groups I'«lIBin fixed for all competitions so that a given entty This srudy of the Miss l<nerica Pageanc en­ .ccmpete.8 against: the saroo: individuals in all ccmpasses the years of 1921-1979. The data set ccrnpetitioos. The grouping varies from year to consists of 2,214 observations with 32 variables year, but in all cases they are established so per observation in the original set and another that there is wide geographical distribution for 22 interl:la.llY geoorated """iab1es per observation. each group. Poise is evaluated in a short inter­ The data are generally complete for 1959-1979, view with the different judges during the day on s~t complete for 1945-1958 and for 1921, and »hich the contestant participates in the evening I1I)st1y missing for the other years. The variables gown carpetition. ""inner. are annmJnCed for the given major arphasis in the, study are year. state nightly talent and swimsuit preliminaries, but represented, SlirI1a!JE, first~. rank in the m winners are ever revealed for the evening gown Pageant, prelimi.nary contest success, academic and poise ~etitions in order to heighten sus­ major, talent used, class in school, type of pense and keep foll"""",s and watchers interes ted singing, type of dancing, beight, weight, bust, throughout the entire Pageant. In sinulating the waist, hips, hair color, eye -color, and physical poise contest in MISSAM. the IIDdeler relied on , s)'IIIIEtty. Race data are too limited to be of variables such as educational level and acadanic use. A prediction ITDdel, MISSAM, evolved as part major. of the analysis. All of the programs, including (b the night of the finals ten semifinalists MISSAM , are written in SAS76 for use on the ccm­ are identified, who then compete in all of the puter facilities at Northern Illinois University, caq>etitions during the nationally televised which currently consist of an 1EM 360/67 and media event. Out of these ten contestants the 370/148, OS Release 21.8, MVr, HASP 3.1. top five are ranked wit:h Miss America being the MISSAM predicted the winner fran anvng 50 individual with the bighest cooposite score. Pageant participants in 1979 in both a pre-Pag­ F€!ffiles enter the Pageant with the hope of eant and a "day of the finals" simJ1ations. '!he achieving recognition and/or m:mey (a scholar­ l1Ddel projected the winner on a pre-Pageant basis ship or cash if tha individual has received a on 4 occasions in s:inulations covering the last degree frem a four-year institution). The 1979 , 17 years and in 8 of the finals day sinulations scholarship schedule was as foll.ow5: '. over the s.... period. Except for the Ccrll"Uter t:ime, the author has relied entirely 00 personal Miss l<nerica $20,000 Talent prelim $2,500 funds. Second 15,000 Swimsuit prelim 1,500 Third 10 ,000 8 nonfinalist I. INrROWCrION Fourth 7,000 nost talented 2,000 Fifth 5 ,000 All others not The national finals of the Miss America Pag­ Sani£inalist 3,000 in the above 1,000 eant wbich are held each September in Atlantic Semifinalist =ds go to those ranking 6-10. City are the end resul t of a lengthy selection Prior to 1978, those winning the top =ds did process at state and local levels which dete:rnrine mt receive any other awards, except ''Miss Con­ representatives who carpete for the title of Miss geniality" and/or 'Neat as a Pin." Those two l<nerica at Atlantic City. It has been estimated awards have been discontinued. Overall, the , that aver 30,000 individuals take part in the award strwoture favors talent and prooDtes edu­ i; selection process. Presently, each, state par­ cational development. t, ticipates and sends a representative to the Though the Pageant has been subjected to finals. In order to get to Atlantic City, a social =tary, this author is rot concerned state representative will have received the with its Bocia1 validity in this study. lie has greatest ccup::!site score at each geographical received both praise and condamation for his level for ca:rpetitions in "swimsuit," "talent, II efforts. The goal of this researcher was ~rely 1 'poise ," and !(evening gcc.r.n. II In the preliminary to analyze the Pageant on an. historical basis in caq>etitions at all level., including the nation­ order to infonn an allegedly interested public. al final., talent has a weight of 1/2, swimsuit and hinself about the nature of the Pageant. A 1/4, poise 1/8, and evening gown 1/8. Hcwever, second goal was to siIm.tlate the Pageant and pre­ on the night of the finals carpetitions held dict.man the winner is IIDst likely to be. after ten sanifinalists have been cbosen, the The author has relied on his personal funds weights are changed to talent 1/3, swimsuit 1/3. yet is still being buffeted by Proxnri.re-like poise 1/6, and evening goon 1/6. 'lbroughout the winds, Ho<.>ever DDst =ts have been favorc pageants, when ties occur the contestant scoring able. higher m talent rrnves ahead. The prelimi.nary competitions occur over a II. TIIll DATA SET three-dey period, Each night there i. a ccrnpe­ The data uSed in the analysis of the Miss titi"" for: talent, swimsuit and evening gwn with hIa'ica Pageant were gathered from publications each state representative carpeting in one of the of the Pageant, from inf<Xf'Imtion provided by Ms • categories on each of the three nights. fu con­ Ruth M;:Candless (Executive secretary of the Pag­ testant takes part in nnre than one of the' three eant), and frem published reports of Pageant carpetitions on any given dey. For the prelim­ activities in newspapers and elser..mere. The inaries, the contestants are divided into groups Pageant publications consisted of anrrual programs Sl which contained descriptive information about EXHIBIT I the participants and ccmnents on the Pageant it­ self. SUch data were generally reliable but the A MlDIFIED Fl1J.J QWIT OF MISSAM programs were not error free. Data were missing for serne variables for sane of the years of Get a Program frem the 1959-79, the years for which pro!7""" were Miss America Pageant. available to the author. Data on bust, waist Ent= Data. and hips measurements are :incanplete ip the data base for 1963 and 1965-68, except for those ranldng high in the pageants. LI.Iring tho s e years it was apparently all right to reveal age Is State Alaska, and height, but the =ren's IlDvanent protested Delaware, Mary land, Missouri, the other meas1..1l"fflleI1ts. Acadanic major in art Mmtana, Nebraska, Noevada, yes-.e explicit farm was awilable only for the years Ns-I Mexico, North Dakota of 1969 -79 , however, goals in lile and career or Verrn::mt? interests identified academic majors in the No other )'ears. MISSiIM relied heavil), on the data for the years in which the programs were avail­ Check lfu",nca1 Stats. able. Of the 2,214 observations in the total Is 19 ~ Age ~ 23 study, about one-half occurred duripg the 1959- and 64~Height:So 70 1979 period. and 105 ~ Weight" 135 Variables available for analysis were year, and 34 t Bust =36.5 t---No-B state represented~ first n.:nne, middle. nane, 5111"­ and 21~ Waist = 25 """", place of residence, rronth and day of birth, and 34 ~ Hi s to 361 rank in the Pageant, success in prelinrlnary con­ tests, Miss O:mgeniality and Neat As a Pin win­ Yes ners, academic major, talent used in the Pag­ eant, height, weight, bust, wais t, hips, age, ~~~-yes-B hair color, eye color, aro:runt 'MJl1, school attended, class in school, type of singing, type lli of dancipg and race. 'Ihe data spamJBd three Is T ent Baton, Dance ex­ cards and were entered in standard SAS colurr:rurr cluding Ballet, Drama, Ccrredy, input. Mine or Sipging Accanpanied yes-B Adlitional variables were created via appro­ a Guitar? priate S/\S statanents. They consisted of 19 probability variables, region, 0'1 adjusted No award, educational level indeK, and a current uate twn Lew award variable. The base for the 0'1 award var­ iable was Septamer, 1967. Ihe current award variable asSlUlled that the 1979 award structure c or existed over the period of 1945-1979. Ihe enti.l:e progr:an is s~le and short with only about 1,000 S/\S stat=ts. A final COOIII'mt regarding th" accutacy of the physical variables is necessary. No one with the Pageant tEa.S'UI'eS the contestants, nor have they for several decades. Further, entrants IlIay enhance their appearances with paddipg, cos­ Imtic., hair coloripg, "te. Even though statis­ tica are reported accurately, scme change by the time a state representative reaches the national finals. A =testant may lose several pounds, add inches, and so on duripg the frantic _ during which each is beipg "improvo>d" by state beauty consultants. III. WE NII11JRE OF MISSAM te ~ ~t~es -- ----- - --- of State P.epresentatives The Miss l'Imerica Prediction Itxlel is pre­ bee . Miss America sented in Exhibit I in a shortened fonn. The rana.irlder of this peper will discuss the cowpon­ ents of the IIDdel, the output fran the rodel, and Pageant analyses :indeperu:lent of MISSAM. Programs are awilable £rem the Pageant a couple of _ before the national finsls.