TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © TABLE OF CONTENTS Copyright: Allegra Strategies Limited, June 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or stored in a retrieval system, in any form or by any means, electrical, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise without the prior consent of the publishers. The views and forecasts presented in this report represent independent findings and conclusions drawn from a comprehensive study of the UK coffee shop market by Allegra Strategies. Main sources of information include published information, opinions and information shared by interviewees and consumers with Allegra Strategies during the period of study. This report has been produced under significant time constraints to ensure that the information contained within it is as up-to-date as possible. Great care has been taken to ensure that all information contained in this report is accurate, free from bias and fully describes the latest developments in the fast growing UK branded restaurant market, as of June 2013. However, Allegra Strategies can accept no responsibility for any investment decision made on the basis of this information or for any omissions or inaccuracies that may be contained in this report. This report has been produced in good faith and independently of any operator or supplier to the industry. We trust that it will be of significant value to all readers. Allegra Strategies Limited No 1 Northumberland Avenue, Trafalgar Square, London WC2N 5BW Tel: +44(0)20 7691 8800 Fax: +44(0)20 7691 8810 Email: [email protected] Website: www.allegra.co.uk Registered in England No: 3645920 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1 I.1 Objectives and Scope 2 I.2 Key Terms and Definitions 3 Table I.2.1 – Key Terms Used Throughout Project Restaurant 2013 3 I.3 Primary Information Sources 4 Table I.2.2 – Primary Information Sources 4 SECTION 1 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1.1 Overview 6 1.2 Market Overview 7 1.3 Competitive Landscape 8 1.4 Customer Insight 9 1.5 Market Outlook 10 SECTION 2 – MARKET 11 2.1 Market Overview 13 2.1.1 Key Events 14 Table 2.1.1 – Key Events in UK Branded Restaurant Chain History, 2007-2013 14 2.1.2 Section Summary 19 2.1.3 Total Eating Out Market Landscape 20 2.1.4 Total Eating Out Market Size by Outlet Numbers 21 Figure 2.1.1 – Total Number of UK Eating Out Outlets, by Type, 2008-2018F 21 2.1.5 Total Restaurant Market Size by Outlet Numbers 22 Figure 2.1.2 – Total Number of UK Branded Restaurant Outlets, by Channel, 2008-2018F 22 2.1.6 Branded Restaurant Market Size by Outlet Numbers 23 Figure 2.1.3 – Total Number of UK Branded Restaurant Outlets, by Channel, 2008-2018F 23 2.1.7 Branded Restaurant Market Size and Growth by Outlet Numbers 24 Figure 2.1.4 – Total Number of UK Branded Restaurant Outlets With Percentage Growth YOY, 2008-2018F 24 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.1.8 Total Eating Out Market Size by Estimated Annual Turnover 25 Figure 2.1.5 – Estimated Total Annual Turnover of UK Eating Out Market 25 2.1.9 Total Restaurant Market Size by Turnover 26 Figure 2.1.6 – Total Turnover of UK Branded Restaurant Market, by Channel, 2008-2018F 26 2.1.10 Branded Restaurant Market Size by Turnover 27 Figure 2.1.7 – Total Turnover of UK Branded Restaurant Market, by Channel, 2008-2018F 27 2.1.11 Branded Restaurant Market Size and Growth by Total Annual Turnover 28 Figure 2.1.8 – Estimated Annual Turnover of UK Branded Restaurant with Percentage Growth YOY, 2008-2018F 28 2.1.12 Branded Restaurant Outlet vs. Turnover Growth 29 Figure 2.1.9 – Branded Restaurant Outlet Percentage Growth vs. Turnover Percentage Growth YOY, 2008-2018F 29 2.1.13 Market Share of Branded Chains by Channel 30 Table 2.1.3 Market Share of Branded Channel by Store Numbers – 2009-2013E 30 Table 2.1.4 Market Share of Channel by Turnover – 2009-2013E 30 2.1.14 Market Share of Branded Restaurants Compared with Independents 31 Table 2.1.5 Market Share by Store Numbers and Turnover – Brands Compared with Independents, 2013E 31 Figure 2.1.10 Branded Market Segment Share Growth by Store Numbers – 2013E 31 2.1.15 Market Share of Pubs by Outlets 32 Table 2.1.6 Market Share of Pub Channel by Store Numbers – 2009-2013E 32 2.1.16 Market Overview – Market Share of Pub Channel by Turnover 33 Table 2.1.7 Market Share of Pub Channel by Turnover – 2009-2013E 33 2.1.17 Market Overview – Market Share of Branded Pub & Restaurant Groups 34 Table 2.1.8 Top 15 Pub Groups, Market Share by UK Pub Numbers and Turnover, 2013E 34 2.1.18 Market Share of Casual Restaurants by Outlets and Turnover 35 Table 2.1.9 Market Share of Full Service Restaurant Channel by Store Numbers – 2009-2013E 35 Table 2.1.10 Market Share of Full Service Restaurant Channel by Turnover – 2009-2013E 35 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © Page ii TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.1.19 Market Share of Branded Restaurant Chains 36 Table 2.1.11 Top 20 Branded Casual Restaurants, Market Share by UK Store Numbers and Turnover, 2013E 36 2.1.20 Market Share of Fast Food by Outlets 37 Table 2.1.12 Market Share of Fast Food Channel by Store Numbers – 2009-2013E 37 2.1.21 Market Share of Fast Food by Turnover 38 Table 2.1.13 Market Share of Fast Food Channel by Turnover – 2009-2013E 38 2.1.22 Market Share Fast Food Chains 39 Table 2.1.14 Market Share of Branded Fast Food Chains by Store Numbers and Turnover, 2013E 39 2.1.23 Market Overview – Winners and Losers 40 Table 2.1.15 Restaurant Market Dynamics by Channel – 2013-2018 40 2.2 Impact of Economy 41 2.2.1 Current Trading Environment 42 Figure 2.2.1 – Current Trading Environment, 2009-2013 – Industry Views 42 2.2.2 Recent Trading Performance 43 Figure 2.2.2 – Impact of Economic Conditions on Market, Q1 2010-Q1 2013 – Industry Views 43 2.2.3 Future Revenue Expectations 44 Figure 2.2.3 – Future Revenue Expectations, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 44 2.2.4 Timing of Full Economic Recovery 45 Figure 2.2.4 – Expectations for Economic Recovery, 2009-2013 – Industry Views 45 2.2.5 Industry Perspectives on Trading - Positive 46 2.2.6 Industry Perspectives on Trading - Negative 47 2.3 Pricing Trends 49 2.3.1 Branded Restaurant Average Typical Menu Prices 50 Figure 2.3.1 – Average Course Prices of Branded Restaurants, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 50 Table 2.3.1 – % Growth of Overall Prices, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 50 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © Page iii TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.3.2 Branded Restaurant Average Entry and Exit Menu Prices 51 Figure 2.3.2 – Average Entry and Exit Prices by Course, Branded Restaurants, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 51 Table 2.3.2 – % Growth of Overall Prices, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 51 2.3.3 Branded Restaurant Average Menu Prices, Percentage Change 52 Figure 2.3.3 – Percentage Changes, Average Prices by Course, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 52 2.3.4 Average Starter Price by Segment 53 Figure 2.3.4 – Average Starter Prices of Branded Restaurants, by Segment, Feb 2011-Feb 2013 53 Table 2.3.3 – % Growth of Starter Prices, by Segment, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 53 2.3.5 Average Main Course Price by Segment 54 Figure 2.3.5 – Average Main Course Prices of Branded Restaurants, by Segment, Feb 2011-Feb 2013 54 Table 2.3.4 – % Growth of Main Course Prices, by Segment, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 54 2.3.6 Average Side Dish Price by Segment 55 Figure 2.3.6 – Average Side Dish Prices of Branded Restaurants, by Segment, Feb 2011-Feb 2013 55 Table 2.3.5 – % Growth of Side Dish Prices, by Segment, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 55 2.3.7 Average Dessert Price by Segment 56 Figure 2.3.7 – Average Dessert Prices of Branded Restaurants, by Segment, Feb 2011-Feb 2013 56 Table 2.3.6 – % Growth of Dessert Prices, by Segment, Feb 2012-Feb 2013 56 2.4 Consumer Trends – Industry Views 57 2.4.1 Most Important Consumer Trends 58 Table 2.4.1 – Most Important Consumer Trends Currently Affecting The Industry, 2013 – Industry Views 58 2.4.2 Consumer Spend 59 Figure 2.4.1 – Impact on Consumer Spend per Visit, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 59 2.4.3 Consumer Visit Frequency 60 Figure 2.4.2 – Consumer Visiting Frequency, 2011-2012 – Industry Views 60 2.4.4 Consumer Tipping Behaviour 61 Figure 2.4.3 – Consumer Tipping Behaviour, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 61 UK Branded Restaurant Market – Strategic Analysis, June 2013 © Page iv TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.4.5 Consumer Value Expectations 62 Figure 2.4.4 – Consumer Value Expectations, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 62 2.5 Key Success Factors and Business Challenges 63 2.5.1 Key Success Factors 64 Table 2.5.1 – Key Success Factors for Foodservice, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 64 2.5.2 Success Factors Industry Perspectives 65 2.5.3 Importance of Alcohol 66 Figure 2.5.1 – Importance of Varied Alcoholic Range on The Success of an Operator, 2013 66 Figure 2.5.2 – Alcoholic Drinks Stocked, 2013 66 2.5.4 Importance of Coffee 67 Figure 2.5.3 – Importance of Varied Coffee Menu to the Success of a Foodservice Operator, 2013 67 2.5.5 Other Beverages 68 Figure 2.5.4 – Hot/Cold Beverages Typically Stocked/Offered, 2013 68 2.5.6 Main Industry Challenges 69 Table 2.5.2 – Main Industry Challenges Facing the Foodservice Industry, 2012-2013 – Industry Views 69 2.5.7 Hospitality VAT Rate 70 Figure 2.5.5 – Impact of Increased Vat Rate on UK F&B Sector, 2011-2013 – Industry Views 70 2.5.8 Staff Issues 71 Figure 2.5.6 – Staff Shortages, 2013 – Industry Views 71 2.5.9 Staff Investment 72 Figure 2.5.7 – Staff Shortages, 2013 – Industry Views 72 2.6 Property 73 2.6.1 Current Availability of Sites in the UK 74 Figure 2.6.1 – Current Site Availability in the UK, 2012-2013 74 2.6.2 Expectations for Restaurant Rents 75 Figure 2.6.2 – Rental Outlook, London vs.